January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It was because it was so warm down there.   Not just that it got above freezing.    If I was buried in ice it would lift my sprits.  

Pretty sure their power is out. 

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You should get some snow up there before this is all done.

I hear you loud and clear about living east of the Cascades!  There have been several consecutive days of below zero lows in some places over there.

Pullman, not necessarily a place I recommend living, has had lows of -19, -21, -10, and -11 the last four days.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For tomorrow?   Man that is a tough bet for an event in progress.   If the ECMWF was the only model showing 20 inches of snow here then I would be almost 100% sure we would be buried in snow tomorrow.    

The low track it shows doesn't mesh with the lack of snow being shown north of Everett, but south of Bellingham.  All of the other models were actually south with everything tonight except that one.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Pullman, not necessarily a place I recommend living, has had lows of -19, -21, -10, and -11 the last four days.

Wow... I need to tell my WSU son.  

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Brennan said:

I don’t know, we’ve really liked it so far. There have been more days than I can count since early September that have reminded me of PNW summers. Upper 70s and wall to wall sunshine, cool evenings… the only type of weather I’ll miss is snow…. It’s been an edge of my seat kind of week tracking things back home. Mom says she’s going to send pics and videos of the snow in the AM. I might cry. I’ll be happy if it looks somewhat like this though… perhaps without the xmas lights.

Upcoming hurricane season could be freakishly active as currently modeled. Good luck!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The low track it shows doesn't mesh with the lack of snow being shown north of Everett, but south of Bellingham.  All of the other models were actually south with everything tonight except that one.

Doesn't really matter when we are talking about the next 12 hours.   The precip is ending per the ECMWF as well by noon or 1 p.m. And the ECMWF is probably going to have handle on the next 24 hours.   The other models have been all over the place right up to the event.  

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Visit St. Simon’s and get back to me. You’ll understand.

You can't offer anything more than "visit there and you'll get it"?

From the guy who can conjure all sorts of imaginative hyperbole? Not sold.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Flurries.

[Brennan]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Gotta say....I'm shocked you moved down there.

Gorgeous pic BTW.

Cost of living. Also my In-laws moved go South Carolina (Greenville) along with all my wife’s siblings (6). We tried it up there, but I have to be near the ocean, and we love the beach… so it just made the most sense. 
 

the #1 perk of being here though is that I have no spring allergies. I don’t know if anyone outside of Mattias knew how badly I suffered from April-July with hay fever. Missed 10+ days of school/work every spring since 4th grade. It was amazing having none of that this year. (Btw it was 10x worse in South Carolina).

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

See... Brennan just mocked me for complaining about it here and yet many of you do it way more.    We honestly love it here.  My wife said the other day that if we ever left it would be because summers are getting too hot and the fire danger is going up.   Not because of the rain at all.   

I find that so hard to believe.  But I’ll take your word for it. In which case I assume you’ll be moving back to MN?

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... I need to tell my WSU son.  

Literally a historic stretch there.

[Skagit Weather]

Snow! (Well, more like aggregated sleet crystals, but it’s falling a bit like snow!)

[Brennan]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I know... we have been on here for a significant part of our lives.   Its crazy when you think about it.  

I remember being in High School and seeing you post pictures of your toddlers playing in the snow. I remember being in my teens telling you you were a bad father and husband . Lol’ing at myself right now. Now all but one of my 4 kids are past toddler age. Wild. It’s been 20….21 years since we cyber met on the old farmers almanac forum. My first winter tracking weather with forecast models was 2003-2004. 

[iFred]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Fred scolded him so he went completely in the other direction as an extended troll.   He didn't mean anything he was saying.  

I thought if I took out your spiritual leader then the rest of you would fall.

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was stunned by how bullish he was.  Normally he is very reserved about such things.

What happened to his pro forecaster tag is what I want to know!!

[Brennan]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Pullman, not necessarily a place I recommend living, has had lows of -19, -21, -10, and -11 the last four days.

Were and of these daily records? 

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF is way overdoing the south wind for tomorrow for the Puget Sound region.  Seen it before.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

You can't offer anything more than "visit there and you'll get it"?

From the guy who can conjure all sorts of imaginative hyperbole? Not sold.

I’m not an imaginative guy. But I’ll give it my best shot.

The salty smell in the air, the comfort food, the laid back culture, the huge live oaks covered in Spanish moss, the pitch black nights with lightning over the horizon, the sounds of the insects. IDK man, there’s something about it that has permanently won my heart.

[Willamette Weenie]

Still 28f and covered in ice... I was thinking tonight, in many years past we seem to get a decent cold snap, some snow/ice in Feb and it more or less ends winter, often after the thaw nothing else happens until the next winter begins.

This event, being both much colder and during mid January makes me wonder if we will see something similar play out, and the rest of winter is pretty uneventful, or does the abnormality of it all mean we see something else setup in Feb, or even March. 

It would be interesting to look back on past January winter storms in the PNW and how the rest of the winters often played out.

[Brennan]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Upcoming hurricane season could be freakishly active as currently modeled. Good luck!

I invite the Hurricanes. We’re renting, and we’re also about 8 miles inland. Bring it!  

[iFred]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

What happened to his pro forecaster tag is what I want to know!!

After someone wanted a Met tag for attending some LinkedIn courses and the real Mets didn’t want targets in their back to get hate mail because they posted about tending to their flowerbeds in January, I nixed the tag.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

I find that so hard to believe.  But I’ll take your word for it. In which case I assume you’ll be moving back to MN?

Dude... you have no idea how bad the tree die off has been here in the last couple years.  Its been depressing and sort of scary in terms of fire danger.   You like to believe my wife hates rain but that stems from one time I said she was depressed right after my daughter was born and it was raining for a month straight (the infamous 2010).  You guys have run with that for 15 years imagining us cowering in the corner every time its raining.   In reality... my wife loves the rain and isn't really bothered by any weather unless its over 90 degrees.   She truly hates that. 

Minnesota would be the logical choice but neither of us want their long, cold winters.   We can't really think of another area that makes sense.    And we still love it here.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Brennan said:

Were and of these daily records? 

Yeah, the -19 and -21 were.

The -21 was the coldest January temp in Pullman since 1982. And second coldest on record.

[snow_wizard]

Just cold enough here for the ZR to build up pretty good.  29.8.

[Slushy Inch]

It is pretty annoying. Never did I think I would not be getting winter precip while below freezing. Raining nothing has frozen 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Doesn't really matter when we are talking about the next 12 hours.   The precip is ending per the ECMWF as well by noon or 1 p.m. And the ECMWF is probably going to have handle on the next 24 hours.   The other models have been all over the place right up to the event.  

Fresh batch of precip starting to stream in from the west.

[Brennan]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not an imaginative guy. But I’ll give it my best shot.

The salty smell in the air, the comfort food, the laid back culture, the huge live oaks covered in Spanish moss, the pitch black nights with lightning over the horizon, the sounds of the insects. IDK man, there’s something about it that has permanently won my heart.

you actually paint the picture very well. For us the entire past summer felt like a vacation. It was very odd, but man, it definitely feels nice. The sound of the cicadas … 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Fresh batch of precip starting to stream in from the west.

ECMWF shows pretty much constant precip until noon or 1 tomorrow and then quickly gets shunted east.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, the -19 and -21 were.

The -21 was the coldest January temp in Pullman since 1982. And second coldest on record.

Wow!

That's pretty surprising.  Cle Elum "only" dropped to around -10 during this event, but they plunged to -33 in Jan 1950.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Dude... you have no idea how bad the tree die off has been here in the last couple years.  Its been depressing and sort of scary in terms of fire danger.    'You like to believe my wife hates rain but that stems from one time I said she was depressed right after my daughter was born and it was raining for a month straight (the infamous 2010).  You guys have run with that for 15 years imagining us cowering in the corner every time its raining.   In reality... my wife loves the rain and isn't really bothered by any weather unless its over 90 degrees.   She truly hates that. 

Minnesota would be the logical choice but neither of us want their long, cold winters.   We can't really think of another area that makes sense.    And we still love it here.

I never said that. Actually my hunch was/is that your wife loves it there which is why you haven’t moved to the SE US yet (which obviously would be a more suitable climate for you).

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

It is pretty annoying. Never did I think I would not be getting winter precip while below freezing. Raining nothing has frozen 

That is really bad luck and seemingly impossible.

[Brennan]

If I ever move back to Washington I’m moving to the east slopes of the cascades. Or north central washington. Anywhere in the area Snowmizer has his cabin would be ideal. Perhaps when summer rains become a thing again and this decade long stretch of forest fire mania subsided. 

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not an imaginative guy. But I’ll give it my best shot.

The salty smell in the air, the comfort food, the laid back culture, the huge live oaks covered in Spanish moss, the pitch black nights with lightning over the horizon, the sounds of the insects. IDK man, there’s something about it that has permanently won my heart.

I've been to New Orleans, Pensacola, Tampa, Daytona. Granted, never the SE coast along Georgia and South Carolina. All seasons.

My better half has a work conference scheduled for May in Charleston. Maybe I'll get a taste, but for now I'm very glad I'm not in that part of the country.

[snow_wizard]

I think the bottom line is we still don't exactly how tomorrow will play out.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I never said that. Actually my hunch was/is that your wife loves it there which is why you haven’t moved to the SE US yet (which obviously would be a more suitable climate for you).

Not a big fan of humidity though.  

[icyasf]

1 hour ago, Tanis Leach said:

Can I ask what you are majoring in?

Currently a marketing major but it’s still subject to change lol.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Brennan said:

you actually paint the picture very well. For us the entire past summer felt like a vacation. It was very odd, but man, it definitely feels nice. The sound of the cicadas … 

Yeah very different cicada species down there. The ones here are just loud and grating, the insect chorus in the SE is much more beautiful and even tempered IMO.

[Brennan]

Reports from an old teacher on west side of Lake Whatcom, east of Bellingham (for those who aren’t aware)… 30*F and raining. Right on the lake. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I think the bottom line is we still don't exactly how tomorrow will play out.

ECMWF would have to be wrong by 100 miles during an event though.   That seems like a big stretch. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF would have to be wrong by 100 miles during an event though.   That seems like a big stretch. 

100 miles? Other models aren’t that different, mostly temps and precip.