January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

What is the temperature up to there?

37f

[ajreich]

43 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

I know this is a washington-heavy forum but does anyone have thoughts on situation in Portland and the return of offshore Thursday. Most forecasts are calling for a cold rain with temps in the mid to high 30s. GFS continues to show temps below freezing and more ice accumulation thursday afternoon/night. It looks reasonably borderline. Temps have been slower to warm this morning. my concern is that if we only make it to the mid 30s today, it’s not going to take very much additional cold air to create problems. But forecasters still seem confident portland makes it into 40s today. Would love any input. Sitting at 28 right now. 

I think a lot of the Oregon members are without power! Once the warm air makes it, temps will definitely rise rapidly. The CRB is supposed to moderate today/tomorrow, so even with east winds it probably won’t be enough to freeze PDX again. That said, GFS has us pretty borderline through the weekend, so it could go on a lot longer than people expect

[Groundhog]

Blowing n’ drifting snow.

[Everleigh]

The S/SW winds have just kicked up, and it took the temp from 32* to 40* in less than 5 mins.

[Phishy Wx]

people hug the GFS and GEFS around here like its Gospel and it perplexes that F out of me.  People post all the time the verification rates and the GFS is often 4th or 5th to the Euro, GEM and sometimes UKMET and ICON

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

In a few hours we will probably see the euro be correct. Gfs has snow starting for me around 1 pm RGEm around 11am

WOW newly initialized models are actually still showing snowfall south of Whatcom? 

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, Groundhog said:

Blowing n’ drifting snow.

where?

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

people hug the GFS and GEFS around here like its Gospel and it perplexes that F out of me.  People post all the time the verification rates and the GFS is often 4th or 5th to the Euro, GEM and sometimes UKMET and ICON

But it shows what we want to happen…

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

people hug the GFS and GEFS around here like its Gospel and it perplexes that F out of me.  People post all the time the verification rates and the GFS is often 4th or 5th to the Euro, GEM and sometimes UKMET and ICON

Because it tells them what they want to hear. Confirmation bias.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

WOW newly initialized models are actually still showing snowfall south of Whatcom? 

Yes

[T-Town]

For me the event was interesting and memorable for the extreme cold, but without snow not really all that enjoyable. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

But it shows what we want to happen…

Yeah the Euro is the Rich Marriott/Cliff Mass of models. Too often it’s the Debbie Downer model while the other models have more of the MossMan enthusiasm. 

Edited January 17 by MossMan

[Slushy Inch]

 

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

WOW newly initialized models are actually still showing snowfall south of Whatcom? 

Every model except euro and probably still hrrr.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

people hug the GFS and GEFS around here like its Gospel and it perplexes that F out of me.  People post all the time the verification rates and the GFS is often 4th or 5th to the Euro, GEM and sometimes UKMET and ICON

Us that have been doing this a long time have seen the euro be wrong as well with these events. There is the answer. Sometimes the gfs has a better handle on these cold waves, sometimes it don't. 

[RaleighHillsRunner]

4 minutes ago, ajreich said:

Still at 26 and now up to half inch of ice Really not sure how all this gonna melt off today as the NWS thinks. The warm air just isn’t coming north as modeled at all. At 600’ we should be mixing out before the valley and yet we’re still 3-4 degrees colder. 

Looks to be the inner SW side is warming more quickly than your location. Bridlemile/Raleigh Hills/Sylvan stations all near or slightly above freezing while Arlington Heights/Forest Park to North still much colder along with entire east side.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

For me the event was interesting and memorable for the extreme cold, but without snow not really all that enjoyable. 

It will be a newer and very slightly cooler version of December 2009 for me…Barely memorable except for the heartache portion of it. 

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Because it tells them what they want to hear. Confirmation bias.

I guess I'm more of a 'proof in the pudding' type guy....

[ajreich]

Just now, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Looks to be the inner SW side is warming more quickly than your location. Bridlemile/Raleigh Hills/Sylvan stations all near or slightly above freezing while Arlington Heights/Forest Park to North still much colder along with entire east side.

Yeah, you’re right. I noticed the south facing hills are about 4-5 degrees warmer than us on the north side. Interesting dynamics!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Why don't we wait till today is over first to say which model was right about today? Makes sense..

[Sandy rocks]

This has been an impactful series of days. We have had many trees come down but not like Eugene/Springfield area. Ice does so much damage. The tree that took out our power must have been 60-70 years old. What a waste. I haven't gone on the trail behind my house because it is too dangerous, but I am sure a lot of trees came down. Losing power at the height of the storm was miserable, I have never been so cold. Snow is beautiful but ice is truly hellish, I hate ice but it is reality here near the mouth of the gorge.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

 

Every model except euro and probably still hrrr.

Interesting. I figured all would have swung to camp downer. Guess we will know if a few hours. I will let you know if I see another than typical boring liquid falling from the sky.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It will be a newer and very slightly cooler version of December 2009 for me…Barely memorable except for the heartache portion of it. 

I respect it for how cold it was during the day but it wasn't an event. A event effects your day to day regular activities this did not. It was an impressive cold wave and nothing more for 90% of the lowlands of western Washington.  

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Interesting. I figured all would have swung to camp downer. Guess we will know if a few hours. I will let you know if I see another than typical boring liquid falling from the sky.

Icon and regular gem look more like euro. Still some snow south 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Us that have been doing this a long time have seen the euro be wrong as well with these events. There is the answer. Sometimes the gfs has a better handle on these cold waves, sometimes it don't. 

I've been monitoring these things for close to 30 years, since college on the east coast in the mid 90s.  When model output came over dot matrix reports on a printer.  I get it, but I also get factual verification rates over time and err on statistical percentages over occasional busts

[Snownerd3000]

Kids school closed instead of a 2 hr delay due to the ice. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, GoldenEars said:

Looks close to 3 inches so far. I've got bronchitis so today seemed like a good day to call in to work and watch the snow.

Good call. That looks magnificent!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Why don't we wait till today is over first to say which model was right about today? Makes sense..

Won't have to wait long.  All the models show the precip moving rapidly east by noon or 1 and mostly gone by mid afternoon. 

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah the Euro is the Rich Marriott/Cliff Mass of models. Too often it’s the Debbie Downer models while the other models have more of the MossMan enthusiasm. 

forecasting with heart over head will usually lead to disappointment

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Up to 6.0" and counting. Dumping, and models have indicated that between about now and noon should be the peak of the event.

[MossMan]

My kids school (part of Mt. Vernon/Burlington schools) just went from 2hrs late to closed. Wonder if the snow line dropped back down to that area? 

[Blizzard777]

South Sound folks

[Dave]

My tree has made a mess. It is not possible to walk anywhere without spikes.

 

[ajreich]

I’m guessing they extend this for at least east metro and west hills. 

 

[TT-SEA]

I-5 is a mess in Bellingham.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Good morning!

[Blizzard777]

Been stuck at 32.8 with a dp of 27

a few surfaces with some ice but mostly everything just wet 

[Skagit Weather]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My kids school (part of Mt. Vernon/Burlington schools) just went from 2hrs late to closed. Wonder if the snow line dropped back down to that area? 

A mixture of rain and sleet here as the precipitation picks back up. Burlington is closed partly for the roads which probably won’t improve but also partly because a lot of teachers live up in Whatcom county and they’re probably not making it down here today.

[Tyler Mode]

A lady gave birth inside the Battle Ground fire station this morning.  Couldn't get to the hospital.  That'll be a story!

[TT-SEA]

East wind which was blowing all night here has totally died now... the flow appears to be shifting from E to SE right now and eventually SW here for a couple hours around noon.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

South Sound folks

Snohomish County is with you this time.