January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[snow_wizard]

This is just going to kill the ski areas.  Crystal Mountain is 39 with SW winds gusting to 44 right now.  That wind will wipe out snow very fast.

[Chewbacca Defense]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It would be weird if I was obsessively posting in a Maryland/Virginia weather forum. 

Except maybe if you found the weather dynamics of that region fascinating. 

We all know it is an incredibly difficult area to forecast, so for a weather geek, what better place to be.  For the most part, he posts about our region or indicators that will influence our region.  Sometimes he talks about his region, sometimes its interesting, sometimes its not.

 

Sometimes it shows that he still does not grasp all of the dynamics of our region, but folks on here have no problem pointing that out, and he *usually* recognizes his miss.

 

I guess I would find it a little more odd if he was constantly posting on the SoCal weather forum.....today sunny 75/65, tomorrow sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Managed to stay in the low 50's, much better than low 60's. The rain continues 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

yep Phil adds value. Keep on posting brother. I mean if not we'd be stuck with dudes who anticipate winter based on how much black fur a bug in their backyard has or by using an analog from the 1870s as a good guide to what's going to happen in our modern day climate.

Kind of insulting to some of us.  Sorry we don't contribute up to your standards.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Except maybe if you found the weather dynamics of that region fascinating. 

We all know it is an incredibly difficult area to forecast, so for a weather geek, what better place to be.  For the most part, he posts about our region or indicators that will influence our region.  Sometimes he talks about his region, sometimes its interesting, sometimes its not.

 

Sometimes it shows that he still does not grasp all of the dynamics of our region, but folks on here have no problem pointing that out, and he *usually* recognizes his miss.

 

I guess I would find it a little more odd if he was constantly posting on the SoCal weather forum.....today sunny 75/65, tomorrow sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65

I think he has some ties to this area, and I don't blame him for being fascinated by this climate.  It is bizarre.

I'm certain that if I ever move to an area with a more enjoyable climate I'll still spend a lot of time on here posting about this area.  For me this climate is a love/ hate relationship where there is just a little too much hate for my liking.  I just need something more soothing.

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Except maybe if you found the weather dynamics of that region fascinating. 

We all know it is an incredibly difficult area to forecast, so for a weather geek, what better place to be.  For the most part, he posts about our region or indicators that will influence our region.  Sometimes he talks about his region, sometimes its interesting, sometimes its not.

 

Sometimes it shows that he still does not grasp all of the dynamics of our region, but folks on here have no problem pointing that out, and he *usually* recognizes his miss.

 

I guess I would find it a little more odd if he was constantly posting on the SoCal weather forum.....today sunny 75/65, tomorrow sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65, the next day, sunny 75/65

We have more variety than that, but sometimes PNW shows 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers... 

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I'm in kind of a covid-induced stupor, so I'm going back to sleep.

I feel your pain.  I spent about a half hour doing some chores and I'm paying for it now.  I'm not as recovered as I thought.

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I wouldn’t take Jesse’s weenies personally. He gives them (and downvotes) out by the gross.

People afflicted with SAD in the winter are just a bunch of Karens who can't hack life at a northern latitude on the planet.   They are wimps because they don't find happiness in the low light and gloomy skies.  I doubt he feels anxious about anything.  

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think he has some ties to this area, and I don't blame him for being fascinated by this climate.  It is bizarre.

I'm certain that if I ever move to an area with a more enjoyable climate I'll still spend a lot of time on here posting about this area.  For me this climate is a love/ hate relationship where there is just a little too much hate for my liking.  I just need something more soothing.

you should head to like Bozeman, if that's too cold maybe Missoula

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No one posted the EC control today.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

We have more variety than that, but sometimes PNW shows 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers... 

Sometimes that is true.  This kind of brings back nightmares from the 1998 - 2001 La Nina.  Other than the Dec 1998 blast that thing was the biggest disappointment (weatherwise) of my life.  Days on end of gloom and no temperature changes.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No one posted the EC control today.

I looked at the meteogram from it and it was pretty chilly for a decent period time, but nothing huge.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No one posted the EC control today.

I’ll post 18z

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

People afflicted with SAD in the winter are just a bunch of Karens who can't hack life at a northern latitude on the planet.   They are wimps because they don't find happiness in the low light and gloomy skies.  I doubt he feels anxious about anything ever.  

Some people have reverse SAD, which is not called HAPPY

[snow_wizard]

Snow was actually fair on the EPS.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

you should head to like Bozeman, if that's too cold maybe Missoula

Missoula has been on my short list.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Snow was actually fair on the EPS.

I saw that nice uptick

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Missoula has been on my short list.

I like Missoula... its in a very pretty setting in that valley and just the right size to have all the amenities you need without the traffic and other headaches.  

[Chewbacca Defense]

8 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

We have more variety than that, but sometimes PNW shows 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers, 55/45 showers... 

Yeah I know, I was exaggerating a bit, but you have to admit, the weather is categorically pretty boring down there.  Florida is quite predictable and could be called "boring" in the summer time: sunny, hot, humid, chance of afternoon thunderstorms....but at least those thunderstorms make it interesting (unless you hate thunderstorms).

 

[snow_wizard]

Seriously I don't know why some people think I'm using analogs from the 1870s.  I mention those events because I think they are interesting.  Obviously there are no real similarities in our climate 19th century vs now.

BTW I thought I did really well calling the big cold wave.  I never backed down even through the typical model noise.  It just felt right.

[Chewbacca Defense]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

you should head to like Bozeman, if that's too cold maybe Missoula

I think Missoula struggles with inversions in the wintertime, but otherwise yeah they don't get nearly as cold as Bozeman, Great Falls, or Billings.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I like Missoula... its in a very pretty setting in that valley and just the right size to have all the amenities you need without the traffic and other headaches.  

It has a lot going for it.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Chewbacca Defense said:

I think Missoula struggles with inversions in the wintertime, but otherwise yeah they don't get nearly as cold as Bozeman, Great Falls, or Billings.

It's very consistently cold though.  Not so prone to Chinook events.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Sometimes that is true.  This kind of brings back nightmares from the 1998 - 2001 La Nina.  Other than the Dec 1998 blast that thing was the biggest disappointment (weatherwise) of my life.  Days on end of gloom and no temperature changes.

There was enough onshore flow action to probably make that stretch tolerable up here. 2020-21 is the ultimate DUD Nina in the higher elevations. 

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Seriously I don't know why some people think I'm using analogs from the 1870s.  I mention those events because I think they are interesting.  Obviously there are no real similarities in our climate 19th century vs now.

BTW I thought I did really well calling the big cold wave.  I never backed down even through the typical model noise.  It just felt right.

No one really thinks that, they are just trolling you. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I like Missoula... its in a very pretty setting in that valley and just the right size to have all the amenities you need without the traffic and other headaches.  

Unfortunately, it has been hammered by the same home price explosion many other cities in Montana have had to deal with, and is unaffordable for many.  Not Bozeman unaffordable, but would still probably be a big challenge for your average PNW'er to get into the real estate market.  That said, I haven't looked at it in a year or so, I have no idea what the interest rates have done to cool the market. 

I think Helena and Butte are the only larger sized "cities" in Montana that are affordable, but a large part of Helena has contaminated drinking water, and Butte is just kind of a sh*t hole.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Unfortunately, it has been hammered by the same home price explosion many other cities in Montana have had to deal with, and is unaffordable for many.  Not Bozeman unaffordable, but would still probably be a big challenge for your average PNW'er to get into the real estate market.  That said, I haven't looked at it in a year or so, I have no idea what the interest rates have done to cool the market. 

I think Helena and Butte are the only larger sized "cities" in Montana that are affordable, but a large part of Helena has contaminated drinking water, and Butte is just kind of a sh*t hole.

Butte is just ugly... been through there many times.    Never been to Helena.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Butte is just ugly... been through there many times.    Never been to Helena.  

If you are in Montana and want to take an amazing drive take the route from red lodge Montana to cooke city. 

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Unfortunately, it has been hammered by the same home price explosion many other cities in Montana have had to deal with, and is unaffordable for many.  Not Bozeman unaffordable, but would still probably be a big challenge for your average PNW'er to get into the real estate market.  That said, I haven't looked at it in a year or so, I have no idea what the interest rates have done to cool the market. 

I think Helena and Butte are the only larger sized "cities" in Montana that are affordable, but a large part of Helena has contaminated drinking water, and Butte is just kind of a sh*t hole.

Wow... just did a Zillow search on Missoula.   Crazy expensive!  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

44 degrees at paradise! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... just did a Zillow search on Missoula.   Crazy expensive!  

Yep, I'd love to relocate there, just to expensive. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

44 degrees at paradise! 

[Chewbacca Defense]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Butte is just ugly... been through there many times.    Never been to Helena.  

So you could say its Butte ugly! 

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

So you could say its Butte ugly! 

Don't swim in the lake.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

So you could say its Butte ugly! 

It ain't a Butte

[snow_wizard]

I'm guessing if everything goes just perfect on the way that trough digs down SEA could pull off something like a 35/25 type day.  The pieces are in play for that, but it would have to pull it off perfectly.  The last time I can remember an event going as perfectly as possible was with the Christmas snow in Dec 2017.  That thing did as much as it possibly could have with what was available.

[Meatyorologist]

Very comfortable out today. Looking forward to the warm weather tomorrow, in all honesty. It's a pretty extreme weather event.

February will do it's thang....hopefully we get some measurable snowfall at KSEA. If not, we can at least admit we're no longer due for a snow dud. A 22/15 day makes up for it in my book.

[GHweatherChris]

Is narcissistic mocking a thing.... asking for a friend?

[Meatyorologist]

This is pretty freaking awesome

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The last time I can remember an event going as perfectly as possible was with the Christmas snow in Dec 2017.  That thing did as much as it possibly could have with what was available.

Well, the last time I remember an event going as perfectly as possible was with the heat wave in June 2021. That thing did as much as it possibly could have with what was available.

[snow_wizard]

34 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Unfortunately, it has been hammered by the same home price explosion many other cities in Montana have had to deal with, and is unaffordable for many.  Not Bozeman unaffordable, but would still probably be a big challenge for your average PNW'er to get into the real estate market.  That said, I haven't looked at it in a year or so, I have no idea what the interest rates have done to cool the market. 

I think Helena and Butte are the only larger sized "cities" in Montana that are affordable, but a large part of Helena has contaminated drinking water, and Butte is just kind of a sh*t hole.

Sounds like heaven!