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January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot


iFred

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The euro shows a low, since when don't you follow the euro lol. ? The gfs is on its own. 

Tim does not want ice. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Looking at this GFS run, I see nothing to scour out much of the WV and PDX metro. None of these lows even get near the coast. Obviously most places away from the gorge will moderate fairly quickly, but it looks like there could be some kind of surface inversion. Mark Nelsen has a 50 degree high Wednesday... Not so sure. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The problem on the GEM is that the trough just doesn't dig after the hand off.   No way to push cold air aloft south.

Pretty ugly in terms of freezing rain.

gem-all-namer-z500_anom-1705276800-1705428000-1705644000-20 (1).gif

gem-all-nw-mslp-1705276800-1705438800-1705590000-10.gif

gem-all-washington-total_snow_kuchera-5536000 (1).png

gem-all-washington-frzr_total-5536000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

The problem on the GEM is that the trough just doesn't dig after the hand off.   No way to push cold air aloft south.

Pretty ugly in terms of freezing rain.

gem-all-namer-z500_anom-1705276800-1705428000-1705644000-20 (1).gif

gem-all-nw-mslp-1705276800-1705438800-1705590000-10.gif

gem-all-washington-total_snow_kuchera-5536000 (1).png

gem-all-washington-frzr_total-5536000.png

That's going to be really rough for Eugene if it verifies. I talked to Tiger this afternoon and he said he had no power or heat. :(

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

00z gfs shows 18 inches of snow Wed/Thurs in the Flathead with minimal downsloping... nice.  

Actually, starting to look like a crush job Montana-wide

Eh, pretty heavily favoring Western Montana. Not much out this way but I'm happy for you guys!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Don’t have a very good feeling about Tuesday/Wednesday. Feel like we’re grasping for straws at this point and it would take a miracle for us to get a decent snow out of this, and even then it would be sloppy and melt away pretty quickly anyways. Also no thanks to freezing rain. Maybe we can get a lucky Hail Mary.

Down to 24 here

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Rooster Rock state park, Wahkeenah, Multnomah, Oneonta and Horsetail.

The amount of ice on the edge of the Columbia at Rooster Rock was the most I’ve ever seen personally. The falls and their creeks were choked with ice as well. Temps were around 15 out there this afternoon.

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Gorgeous. What a day for some good forest bathing!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

what do you mean by 'everyone'?

Sorry... always referring to west side and that is confusing enough!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, MikeInEverett said:

Don’t have a very good feeling about Tuesday/Wednesday. Feel like we’re grasping for straws at this point and it would take a miracle for us to get a decent snow out of this, and even then it would be sloppy and melt away pretty quickly anyways. Also no thanks to freezing rain. Maybe we can get a lucky Hail Mary.

Down to 24 here

Unfortunately that is probably a reasonable take. 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's going to be really rough for Eugene if it verifies. I talked to Tiger this afternoon and he said he had no power or heat. :(

No backup heat source I’m guessing?  Not a great situation.  

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

So it looks like all the GFS members also agree that the low never comes inland.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nw-mslp_with_low_locs-1705276800-1705449600-1705579200-10.gif

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-or_wa-snow_total_multimember_panel-5536000.png

Bad news for ZR. 

In other news the ridge up at Silver Falls has mixed out. At their high for the day of 28. Down to 22 here. We've been bouncing between 20-23 all evening. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Pretty weird the models show the upper Midwest and NE torching hard again in week two while we only get somewhat warm.  We are getting quite lucky with this strong Nino.  In fact the December warmth will be completely offset a bit later in the week.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So it looks like all the GFS members also agree that the low never comes inland.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nw-mslp_with_low_locs-1705276800-1705449600-1705579200-10.gif

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-or_wa-snow_total_multimember_panel-5536000.png

That Canadian high sure gets close again.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty weird the models show the upper Midwest and NE torching hard again in week two while we only get somewhat warm.  We are getting quite lucky with this strong Nino.  In fact the December warmth will completely offset a bit later in the week.

Had a 19/13 day here yesterday. What was your coldest day for the event?

Edited by Cascadia_Wx
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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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I'm thinking PDX might stay a lot chillier late in the week than currently thought.  That offshore flow just keeps going.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So it looks like all the GFS members also agree that the low never comes inland.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nw-mslp_with_low_locs-1705276800-1705449600-1705579200-10.gif

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-or_wa-snow_total_multimember_panel-5536000.png

#25! Book it

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Had a 19/13 day here yesterday. What was your coldest day for the event?

20/13.  Very close to the same!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm thinking PDX might stay a lot chillier late in the week than currently thought.  That offshore flow just keeps going.

If the first low can't moderate the Columbia Basin cold pool the second low approaching Thursday will just renew the surface chill.

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I'm thinking the big cold wave trended slightly colder and deeper in the home stretch.  If the same thing happens with this one the graph cast may be right.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Really amazing winter day today. Solid snow cover with a decent depth and low 20s all day. 25/15 today after 20/14 with the 20 being a midnight high. Luckily we never lost power once in the past two days.

Things worked out very well for your area it seems.  Excellent coverage of very cold temps for the Western Lowlands down to Salem or so.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Staying below 20 for 36 hours here really stuck out to me.

We're running 76 or 77 hours below freezing now.  Some nice stats with this.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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35 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Rooster Rock state park, Wahkeenah, Multnomah, Oneonta and Horsetail.

The amount of ice on the edge of the Columbia at Rooster Rock was the most I’ve ever seen personally. The falls and their creeks were choked with ice as well. Temps were around 15 out there this afternoon.

IMG_8891.jpeg

IMG_8892.jpeg

IMG_8902.jpeg

IMG_8911.jpeg

IMG_8913.jpeg

IMG_8914.jpeg

IMG_8931.jpeg

IMG_8919.jpeg

Horsetail gets the best ice formations, because it is the most exposed to the outflow.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

 

Good company there!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Jesus. You got that warm? Not quite an arctic blast when you’re in the 30’s. 

Oh brother.

The previous two days were a lot colder.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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52 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Where does it have the low placement?

The only graphics I have found on that model are 500mb.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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