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January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot


iFred

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

East wind which was blowing all night here has totally died now... the flow appears to be shifting from E to SE right now and eventually SW here for a couple hours around noon.

Temp is spiking here now, up to 34.2

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

A mixture of rain and sleet here as the precipitation picks back up. Burlington is closed partly for the roads which probably won’t improve but also partly because a lot of teachers live up in Whatcom county and they’re probably not making it down here today.

IMG_9411.thumb.jpeg.0a7c17aa37f458bdbfe3107dd2cbbaac.jpeg

Ahhh, that makes sense. And that looks lovely! First time I can ever remember you having white cover while I have a wet deck! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Ahhh, that makes sense. And that looks lovely! First time I can ever remember you having white cover while I have a wet deck! 

Yeah,  I think maybe the only other time since I joined the forum 13 years ago was Feb 22-24, 2014. That was when BLI got buried and I ended up with 50 hours straight of rain/snow mix. I think I had 2" of accumulation from that despite a liquid total near 2.5".

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 5.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 0.5" 2/26, Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Even when things start melting be careful. I just ate sh$t on the driveway. Cut my leg open on the ice too. Ouch! 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Well back to regularly scheduled programming…

Here is the Fuzz. 

IMG_1980.jpeg

Well defined period of Niño forcing coming up from ~ 1/25 - 2/15. Unlike the period encompassing recent arctic blast, this is a much higher confidence forecast (constructive interference regimes are easier to forecast than destructive interference regimes).

But come mid/late Feb, it’s possible MJO is still healthy and returns to the IO/E-Hem, in which case, renewed momentum loss could make things interesting again.

1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

That actually sums it up pretty good.  2 things I miss about summers in the south.  The symphony of sounds coming from the woods (they call them "woods" there, not "forests") and fireflies.  3 things....nighttime thunderstorm in the distance.  Maybe just close enough that you hear the occasional faint rumble of thunder.

A good thunderstorm in close proximity is nice too, but for setting a chill mood, those 3 things right there.

 

My wife is a die hard PNW girl, but her first time going to the Georgia coast, she wanted to pick up and move immediately.  I had to reminder her that we would not be living in a beachfront house but would instead be living along swamp land inland, and she dialed back her enthusiasm a bit.  Plus she has a very pale complexion, so she absolutely fries in the sun down there.

Oh yeah, I do enjoy those aspects of summer as well. We get that same nighttime insect symphony with distant lightning flickering most nights, but somehow the vibe is different in the coastal SE. Can’t entirely put my finger on it.

44 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

the Boone/Banner Elk area of NC is nice and has all 4 seasons.  you can get property up to close to 6000' in a few areas, which is high for the east coast, high for anywhere outside of the Rockies or Sierra really

High elevations in NC are amazing too. Beech Mountain/Banner Elk is a literal oasis, will often be in the low 70s up there while it’s in the 90s here. And they average ~ 70” of precip with 60-80” of snow on the upslope side of the terrain. I could definitively live there.

40 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

people hug the GFS and GEFS around here like its Gospel and it perplexes that F out of me.  People post all the time the verification rates and the GFS is often 4th or 5th to the Euro, GEM and sometimes UKMET and ICON

This is so true, but I’ve given up posting about it. The worst global model gets 90% of the attention here and it’s a major contributor to the drama here.

Will say it again, for the umpteenth time: the GFS will take years off your life expectancy if you let it. Don’t let it.

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18 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

A mixture of rain and sleet here as the precipitation picks back up. Burlington is closed partly for the roads which probably won’t improve but also partly because a lot of teachers live up in Whatcom county and they’re probably not making it down here today.

IMG_9411.thumb.jpeg.0a7c17aa37f458bdbfe3107dd2cbbaac.jpeg

LOL I play soccer with a few of those teachers, and yes they live in Bellingham.

My son stayed home today (he works in Hamilton), judging by what I am seeing of I-5 through the canyon, probably a good call.

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Know why Stanwood closed as well now, apparently Camano turned into one big sheet of ice overnight and Stanwood SD services the island as well. Also I went out to my shop and the concrete pad in front of my driveway was icy/slushy I’m assuming from last evenings ice and sleet. Visually you can’t see it but it’s slick. The ground is still so cold.

temp is dropping in the last 15min from 34.2 to 33.6 now. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just switched back to some very wet snow here. Not sure it's going to accumulate at this temperature, but nice to see.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 5.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 0.5" 2/26, Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Most school districts running 2 hours late here or just closed. Overconfident Enumclaw didn't and had a bus end up in a ditch and many just slid around until they hit a mailbox so definitely was a good call for most districts.

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I’m salty places around me decoupled & tanked to near 0°F while we stayed at 14°F. The NW winds never give up at my location. 😒

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Know why Stanwood closed as well now, apparently Camano turned into one big sheet of ice overnight and Stanwood SD services the island as well. Also I went out to my shop and the concrete pad in front of my driveway was icy/slushy I’m assuming from last evenings ice and sleet. Visually you can’t see it but it’s slick. The ground is still so cold.

temp is dropping in the last 15min from 34.2 to 33.6 now. 

You might get some snow when that next batch moves through,  it has some colder air with it.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Just now, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Still 27°F and raining, schools closed. Trying to decide if attempting to make it to work is a safe decision. 

I’d avoid it, there’s always a patch of black ice somewhere in ZR if it’s in the 20s, even if roads are well treated.

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45 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

people hug the GFS and GEFS around here like its Gospel and it perplexes that F out of me.  People post all the time the verification rates and the GFS is often 4th or 5th to the Euro, GEM and sometimes UKMET and ICON

I tried banning people for posting the GFS but apparently people are little cry babies. Sure, the GFS was the first model to resolve a western Pacific low which resulted in a weaker than forecasted ridge, but we all know that Euro ensemble perturbation 34 was actually correct the entire time.

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1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said:

7" so far. Heaviest snow falling now. Could make a run at 9"!

PXL_20240117_162619377.jpg

PXL_20240117_162626866.jpg

PXL_20240117_162749701.jpg

Oh hell yes. Inject that into my veins.

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You might get some snow when that next batch moves through,  it has some colder air with it.

Yeah, the issue is this warm tongue to the east of the Sound which shows up on the 925mb. Upper level temps should drop below freezing in the next 2-4 hours as it shifts south/east. The only question is whether the precipitation ends for people (like @MossMan) before the temperatures drop below freezing. I think a number of people will quick up a quick inch or two.

925 mb temps

Screenshot2024-01-17at8_35_45AM.thumb.png.b487ececa18c34e66830e350b8da5d47.png

850mb temps

Screenshot2024-01-17at8_34_57AM.thumb.png.42aba523da03759ebfcf001759308a87.png

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 5.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 0.5" 2/26, Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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27 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

A lady gave birth inside the Battle Ground fire station this morning.  Couldn't get to the hospital.  That'll be a story!

My mom helped deliver a baby on the pool table of our volunteer fire station during the December 1996 snowstorm. They were a family passing through town and trying to cross the border, before getting stuck in blizzard conditions. She still has a newspaper clipping of that story floating around somewhere.

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I only have .40 of new snow but I was able to debut my new official snow ruler. More snow expected later. I'm excited that I don't have to do math, dividing 100 by 12.5 anymore.

IMG_20240117_082801609.jpg

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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So was Cliff Mass right or full of s**t? Honest question as I don’t know the specific goalposts set for the squabble last night. All I know is he was taking a beating on here. 😬 

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Nice to see folx up north getting snow!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Pullman, not necessarily a place I recommend living, has had lows of -19, -21, -10, and -11 the last four days.

Pullman is fine but most people prefer Moscow if you aren't living or working at WSU. I prefer Moscow too. Also they get slightly more snow than Pullman but it's pretty close. Moscow gets about 15-20 more inches than Pullman does which surprised me a bit.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

So was Mark Nelsen right or full of s**t? Honest question as I don’t know the specific goalposts set for the squabble last night. All I know is he was taking a beating on here, lol.

Was he? I think he was a few hours behind on the warm up which is typical. I think he said is still a couple hours behind on the warm up this morning, but it’s still progressing. Slowly. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

So was Mark Nelsen right or full of s**t? Honest question as I don’t know the specific goalposts set for the squabble last night. All I know is he was taking a beating on here. 😬 

Cliff Mass not Mark Nelsen. He said it would be "way too warm" for ZR in Seattle and there might be "a few flakes or spots of ZR around Puget Sound."

Friends in North Seattle report icy side streets and glazed cars there so there was definitely Freezing Rain in portions of the city. And most suburbs got more. School's cancelled here five miles North of the city for it. He was wrong.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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