February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's almost just shocking how this thing has emerged out of almost nothing a few days ago.

Clown range cuts both ways. Just because clown range is showing nothing exciting doesn’t mean nothing exciting will happen.

[Doinko]

Pretty good storm for the NE soon. Poor @Phil though 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

00Z Euro is Dr. No.

[MossMan]

Where did Phil and Tim go? 

[Doinko]

Looks like 850s get down to -7/-8c over Seattle and Portland on this run, really nice to see.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just amazed that more people aren't intrigued right now.

Agreed! It's amazing how much this has improved over such a short period of time, with still a lot of room for improvement. If we get very lucky, I seriously think we could be in for a VERY nice surprise, even in the lowlands.

 

Most of the model riders must be done after our boring January event, followed by the torch. Although I guess I wouldn't say the January event was boring for me though, I got over 2 feet of snow, and I'm greedy for more!

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Clown range cuts both ways. Just because clown range is showing nothing exciting doesn’t mean nothing exciting will happen.

That’s right Phil!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Where did Phil and Tim go? 

Right here Randy... actually pretty far away but never totally away!

 

[Doinko]

9 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Cold coming straight from the east in this setup. Would be super dry.

Pretty low dewpoints

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Most of the model riders must be done after our boring January event, followed by the torch. Although I guess I wouldn't say the January event was boring for me though, I got over 2 feet of snow, and I'm greedy for more!

January was not boring for me, either!

[snow_wizard]

This is pretty astonishing actually.  High chance somebody will get lowland snow later in the run.

[TT-SEA]

That is still a pronounced AL pattern with a very strange evolution in the PNW.   At face value the ECMWF solution means highs in the 40s and quite sunny.   But will probably will change 20 more times in the next 3 days.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Agreed! It's amazing how much this has improved over such a short period of time, with still a lot of room for improvement. If we get very lucky, I seriously think we could be in for a VERY nice surprise, even in the lowlands.

 

Most of the model riders must be done after our boring January event, followed by the torch. Although I guess I wouldn't say the January event was boring for me though, I got over 2 feet of snow, and I'm greedy for more!

For me just the cold was amazing in January.  The extreme temperature swings were pretty much historic.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

No lowland snow out to hour 186 on the 00Z Euro.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

That is still a pronounced AL pattern with a very strange evolution in the PNW.   At face value the ECMWF solution means highs in the 40s and quite sunny.   But will probably will change 45 times in the next 3 days.

It a cold solution though.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is still a pronounced AL pattern with a very strange evolution in the PNW.   At face value the ECMWF solution means highs in the 40s and quite sunny.   But will probably will change 45 times in the next 3 days.

Highs in low 40s and lows in mid 20s will be noticeable.

[LowerGarfield]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Where did Phil and Tim go? 

Probably still recovering from seeing his shadow.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

No lowland snow out to hour 186 on the 00Z Euro.

Good lord!  The moisture just gets obliterated that tries to come up from the south.  Weird progression.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It a cold solution though.

True... if you are looking for some below normal days then it's a good run.    

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Low 40s and lows in mid 20s will be noticeable.

Especially in a strong Nino February.  If this verifies it will take the cake for the most bizarre Nino winter I've ever seen.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Low 40s and lows in mid 20s will be noticeable.

I guess.   Rain is noticeable too. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Especially in a strong Nino February.  If this verifies it will take the cake for the most bizarre Nino winter I've ever seen.

2018-19 was pretty crazy too. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I guess.   Rain is noticeable too. 

For me, not as a much as a little chill. I get cold easily.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

No lowland snow out to hour 186 on the 00Z Euro.

 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Especially in a strong Nino February.  If this verifies it will take the cake for the most bizarre Nino winter I've ever seen.

Recency bias?    1972-73 and 1997-98 had arctic cold too and I think with more snow in the Seattle area.  What about the craziness in February 2019?  Do we just need some frosty nights this February to make this the strangest?  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

For me, not as a much as a little chill. I get cold easily.

Prayers coming your way if it gets into the 20s during winter. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Recency bias?    1972-73 and 1997-98 had arctic cold too and I think with more snow in the Seattle area.   Do we just need some frosty nights in February to make this the strangest?  

It’s strange in that it recently looked like it would torch in this period 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Prayers coming your way if it gets into the 20s during winter. 

Ruthless

[Slushy Inch]

Very cold air going somewhere at the end.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

It’s strange in that it recently looked like it would torch in this period 

Yeah....large scale AL pattern is very similar to what has been shown all along but the models seemed to be locked in on that blocking high being unusually strong and making things more interesting.  

[snow_wizard]

Major PV wobbling toward us late in the run.  Wow!

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

2018-19 was pretty crazy too. 

It was, but this Nino is way stronger.  This might be a first if we pull it off.

[Slushy Inch]

Funky looking 

[Doinko]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Funky looking 

That Alaska ridge is there almost the entire run

[snow_wizard]

You HAVE GOT TO BE kidding!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Funky looking 

This run found a way to take the Pacific out of the picture.  By utter brute force.

This run has to have raised some eyebrows.  Every ensemble run has had some dawg members, so who knows.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

That Alaska ridge is there almost the entire run

No doubt a blast will happen if that verifies.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You HAVE GOT TO BE kidding!

Hooooolllyyyyyy shiiiittttt!!

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It was, but this Nino is way stronger.  This might be a first if we pull it off.

The mid-January blast was a couple orders of magnitude colder than anything we saw in February 2019 as well. Especially down here.

[snow_wizard]

32.9 now.  Almost there!