February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Slushy Inch]

I assume the phantom snow storm on the 6z eurowas already mention? 35 degree snowstorm. 

[bainbridgekid]

6z Euro upped snow amounts noticeably. 10:1 map is always way too generous in borderline situations, but still good to see.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The depth map shows where the model thinks it will stick. 

A ton of model difference this close. Every run is north,south,north south.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

6z Euro upped snow amounts noticeably. 10:1 map is always way too generous in borderline situations, but still good to see.

 

Kuchera not available on pivotal?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Kuchera not available on pivotal?

This is more than the last run, impressive for the euro. NWS might need to start changing forecasts if the 12z euro follows.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is more than the last run, impressive for the euro. NWS might need to start changing forecasts if the 12z euro follows.

It’s probably phantom snow though.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ICON, GEM, and RGEM in that order.

[van city]

Nothing better than this in Beautiful Vancouver. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ICON, GEM, and RGEM in that order.

Hi res RGEM shows much more coverage...interesting in that i would have expected the opposite. It only goes out 48hrs so it doesn't capture the entire event

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ICON, GEM, and RGEM in that order.

Strange to see the icon so bullish.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’ll take a serving of the 12z GFs

Edited February 13 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Slushy Inch]

Might be too late for anything significant but extended eps does move Goa all the way into Alaska. Weird to see another cooler spring in all the extended models again, this time during El Niño.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This upcoming pattern would have actually been pretty decent had there been any cold air within 1000 miles. 

Eh, it doesn't really look like a pattern that traditionally would deliver significant winter cold to the PNW.

Remember how warm most of North America was (and especially western Canada) before the January cold wave? Didn't matter once the right blocking pattern got in place.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Eh, it doesn't really look like a pattern that traditionally would deliver significant winter cold to the PNW.

Remember how warm most of North America was (and especially western Canada) before the January cold wave? Didn't matter once the right blocking pattern got in place.

If we had cold air in place or east of the cascades though. Like any, at all. 

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we had cold air in place or east of the cascades though. Like any, at all. 

Oh, well you said within 1000 miles lol...different subtext.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Oh, well you said within 1000 miles lol...different subtext.

Colder air in creeping into the area. Its 25 at my cabin with north wind after a low of 14

[Front Ranger]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Colder air in creeping into the area. Its 25 at my cabin with north wind after a low of 14

Yeah, eastern WA will continue to cool down quite a bit over the next 36 hours, which is the only reason (along with the track) the upcoming system may be a lowland snow producer in places.

[Slushy Inch]

If models verify for late month it could really put a dent in mountain snow defecits.

[MossMan]

That’s a lot of chains! 

[ShawniganLake]

17 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

If models verify for late month it could really put a dent in mountain snow defecits.

Kind of a moving target on the gfs snow maps.  The 0z looked nothing like that. 

[Slushy Inch]

This looks better! Colder and stronger system.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

'EPS has been consistent in the long range... no surprise to see the GFS showing something similar.  

Cross polar flow?  how's it look in Asia on the other side of the Pole?

[bainbridgekid]

12z GFS gives Everett 0.03" in the next 9 days. Crazy how dry February has been here.

 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

12z GFS gives Everett 0.03" in the next 9 days. Crazy how dry February has been here.

 

Ground might get firm enough to start running tractor loads of bark to my landscaped areas! Was thinking I would need to wait until May or so. 

[snow_wizard]

How typical is this?  A possible snow situation that's less than two days out and we still don't how it will play out.  It's very obvious that barring a huge southward shift the Kitsap Peninsula will do well.  Other than that....who knows.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

How did the euro look for snow?

[Snowlova]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

How typical is this?  A possible snow situation that's less than two days out and we still don't how it will play out.  It's very obvious that barring a huge southward shift the Kitsap Peninsula will do well.  Other than that....who knows.

PNW forecasting in a nutshell 

[ShawniganLake]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

How typical is this?  A possible snow situation that's less than two days out and we still don't how it will play out.  It's very obvious that barring a huge southward shift the Kitsap Peninsula will do well.  Other than that....who knows.

Euro seems like it’s been pretty steady the last few runs.  No major shifts. The rest of the models are most likely chasing their tails.  

[Meatyorologist]

The situation looks pretty bleak for those east of the Kitsap peninsula, but it's entirely contingent on precipitation rates. If the 12z NAM verifies Seattle could pile on an inch quick overnight Thursday into the morning.

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

How did the euro look for snow?

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

48F and sunny. Beautiful out there.

[TT-SEA]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Holy shitt big step up here. Its coming.

[SnowWillarrive]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

At this point I would be happy with a dusting 

[Weiner Warrior]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Holy shitt big step up here. Its coming.

Not to often i see the euro show 8 inches of snow here and that isn't even the 10.1 ratio.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, eastern WA will continue to cool down quite a bit over the next 36 hours, which is the only reason (along with the track) the upcoming system may be a lowland snow producer in places.

We do have some  CAA taking place as well.  We are in the favorable location at the base of a block after all.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Holy shitt big step up here. Its coming.

Never really been any doubt for your area.  It's a much dicier proposition for this area of course.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

I would really like to believe that.

[snow_wizard]

One thing I do like is recent runs have dampened the east winds a bit early in the game.  That could help places like here.