February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Skagit Weather]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Wow. Brutal gfs run. 

It thinks about raining at some point in the next two weeks north of Seattle. Doesn't really get there, but it thinks about it.

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

It thinks about raining at some point in the next two weeks north of Seattle. Doesn't really get there, but it thinks about it.

Provincial snowpack for BC is sitting at 61% which is about 18% lower than last year.   The 12Z GFS shows very little help for the snowpack through late February. 
 

 

[the_convergence_zone]

The UW-WRF seems to have a pretty good handle on Wednesday's event...the most likely time for flakes is at the onset of the event late Wednesday...then WAA takes over and snow levels jump pretty quickly above 2,000 ft. It's one of those where pockets of cold could hang on a little longer. I don't see any scenario where this is a widespread impactful event...it looks like a Kitsap and @MossMan special to me. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Wow. Brutal gfs run. 

Lots of nice 60-burgers, though!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Provincial snowpack for BC is sitting at 61% which is about 18% lower than last year.   The 12Z GFS shows very little help for the snowpack through late February. 
 

 

Less than half of normal in SW BC. Oof.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The UW-WRF seems to have a pretty good handle on Wednesday's event...the most likely time for flakes is at the onset of the event late Wednesday...then WAA takes over and snow levels jump pretty quickly above 2,000 ft. It's one of those where pockets of cold could hang on a little longer. I don't see any scenario where this is a widespread impactful event...it looks like a Kitsap and @MossMan special to me. 

Kitsap and Hood canal look like the most likely places to pick up anything more than a slushy coating at this point. 

[RaleighHillsRunner]

33 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Maybe there’s something I’m not understanding. What would stop you from going outside today? It’s overcast but temps aren’t overly cold.

Typically would wait for a bigger yard project like mulching/chips or excavating for a flagstone patio expansion until we’re clear of winter storm potential. That’s all I was saying. Just makes for more cleanup/hassle, but maybe I’m just weird.

And yeah I’ve been getting outside a lot lately. Chopped up our downed maple last weekend. Plus crisp dry mornings are the best for running!

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Typically would wait for a bigger yard project like mulching/chips or excavating for a flagstone patio expansion until we’re clear of winter storm potential. That’s all I was saying. Just makes for more cleanup/hassle, but maybe I’m just weird.

And yeah I’ve been getting outside a lot lately. Chopped up our downed maple last weekend. Plus crisp dry mornings are the best for running!

You’re not weird.  That’s just normal common sense  

[umadbro]

Three years ago today an epic snowstorm was underway. Central and southern valley was being destroyed by ice

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

30 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The UW-WRF seems to have a pretty good handle on Wednesday's event...the most likely time for flakes is at the onset of the event late Wednesday...then WAA takes over and snow levels jump pretty quickly above 2,000 ft. It's one of those where pockets of cold could hang on a little longer. I don't see any scenario where this is a widespread impactful event...it looks like a Kitsap and @MossMan special to me. 

The mm5 wants to pull a February 19 like event here and drop 8-16 inches around the canal.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

32 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Lots of nice 60-burgers, though!

Just what the mountains need!!

[the_convergence_zone]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Just what the mountains need!!

The ship has sailed on this being anything other than an extremely low mountain snow year. 

[Slushy Inch]

Taking a look at what’s going on with the NAM run 

[TT-SEA]

Step back on snow amounts per 12Z ECMWF compared to 00Z run.

[bainbridgekid]

4-km WRF does a much better job of highlighting potential terrain impacts. My house is in the middle of that light blue 3-4" bullseye but I'd be ecstatic to see an inch.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

4-km WRF does a much better job of highlighting potential terrain impacts. My house is in the middle of that light blue 3-4" bullseye but I'd be ecstatic to see an inch.

Ah! There is the shadow I expected. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Ah! There is the shadow I expected. 

The flow is not from the SW... why would your area be shadowed?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The ship has sailed on this being anything other than an extremely low mountain snow year. 

Not yet, March and April can bring massive snow dumps.  Ive been snowmobiling and got 2 feet dumped on me at the stampede pass snow park in march many times.

[Slushy Inch]

10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

4-km WRF does a much better job of highlighting potential terrain impacts. My house is in the middle of that light blue 3-4" bullseye but I'd be ecstatic to see an inch.

Ready for Cliff make a post saying it will snow in what looks like a probable total bust.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

The flow is not from the SW... why would your area be shadowed?

Just personal experience with this kind of track and setup. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Ah! There is the shadow I expected. 

This map has an area of 14-16 inches 3 miles west of me and about a foot here.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Well well well.... I gave up all hope on the storm tracking south, giving the willamette valley some snow.

 

low of 27 at home today.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This map has an area of 14-16 inches 3 miles west of me and about a foot here.

If you run the precip loop there is a hole over my house most of the run. Should be interesting. Some areas 500' + will get a lot of wet slop

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What i have learned when forecasting snow out here is the euro Has to be on board to some extent. If the mm5 model shows 8 inches and euro has nothing the chance for sticking snow is small, if the mm5 shows the same 8 inches and the euro even just shows 1-2 inches then i follow the mm5 because it does better with amounts out here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The flow is not from the SW... why would your area be shadowed?

It is at 850 i think i saw and that will do a shadow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It is at 850 i think i saw and that will do a shadow.

Yep flow at 850 is from the south south east which explains the heavy amounts around canal and a shadow over him.

[Slushy Inch]

Evaporative cooling should be a big player with this event, looks like dewpoints in 20s before precipitation.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep flow at 850 is from the south south east which explains the heavy amounts around canal and a shadow over him.

If the low moves north a little i'll do better

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If February pulls this off again i would love to know the driving force behind it. Possibly something that has not been discovered yet that effects our weather in this part of the world. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If February pulls this off again i would love to know the driving force behind it. Possibly something that has not been discovered yet that effects our weather in this part of the world. 

This is just a blip in terms of the overall pattern.    I don't think it means anything in the big picture.   Sometimes things just work out.

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If February pulls this off again i would love to know the driving force behind it. Possibly something that has not been discovered yet that effects our weather in this part of the world. 

Possibly just shithouse luck.  Quite likely the majority of the lowlands see nothing more than a slushy inch at this point. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Possibly just shithouse luck.  Quite likely the majority of the lowlands see nothing more than a slushy inch at this point. 

Yea I am more inline with this. Most of Puget Sound hasn't seen more than a inch this year or last. 

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

This is what it looked like 3 years ago today when I still lived in Wood Village 🌨

Are you saying you are not "Ken in Wood Village" ?

[umadbro]

31 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Ah! There is the shadow I expected. 

I was up in Port Angeles for work last week. And you’re right. It is the desert wasteland you claim it is. Nevermind the green and soggy ground. Otherwise a beautiful area.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Typically would wait for a bigger yard project like mulching/chips or excavating for a flagstone patio expansion until we’re clear of winter storm potential. That’s all I was saying. Just makes for more cleanup/hassle, but maybe I’m just weird.

And yeah I’ve been getting outside a lot lately. Chopped up our downed maple last weekend. Plus crisp dry mornings are the best for running!

That seems logical. Appreciate the straightforward explanation without being snarky or questioning my common sense.

I’d say odds are we are in the clear as far as impactful winter storms are concerned. But you never know. And of course the season where we can get strongish winds that could bring limbs down etc goes well into the spring.

[Cascadia_Wx]

53 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The ship has sailed on this being anything other than an extremely low mountain snow year. 

Every little bit helps still. Between now and April.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

How does the euro look ?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Every little bit helps still. Between now and April.

As you know it can change dramatically in just 2 weeks.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

How does the euro look ?

For snow mid week?   I posted map earlier.

Otherwise generally warmer and drier than normal for western WA and SW BC.

 

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Provincial snowpack for BC is sitting at 61% which is about 18% lower than last year.   The 12Z GFS shows very little help for the snowpack through late February. 
 

 

Looks like it's comparable to 2014-15 in the southern section of BC (although significantly worse everywhere else) and not quite as bad as 2004-05 in the southwest section when Vancouver Island was only 11% of average on February 1st!