February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Bottom frame is from a low moving inland.

Right, but that's still a CZ signature showing up Monday night.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Right, but that's still a CZ signature showing up Monday night.

For sure... this is the big chance for the Seattle area.   Favorable timing at night... but it doesn't last long before getting pushed into the Cascades

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks great with the Monday/Tuesday trough. I'm upping my forecast to 1-4" of snow here. Sadly I feel like we're losing time for that 2nd trough to work out. 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

One word: phantom

Not Monday night.  We have legit cold then.

[DeepFriedEgg]

First trough DOA for anyone below 1000' (except NW WA)

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks great with the Monday/Tuesday trough. I'm upping my forecast to 1-4" of snow here. Sadly I feel like we're losing time for that 2nd trough to work out. 

The ensemble means have been consistent on moving it over us pretty quickly.

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Not Monday night.  We have legit cold then.

No moisture left at that point...

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Little farther north than 18Z run.   Seems like any chance of snow for the Seattle area for this event comes down to the c-zone on Monday evening.   

That will be an enhanced c-zone with the continental air seeping into it.  This run shows north winds making it to the South Sound Monday night.  Looks decent.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

First trough DOA for anyone below 1000' (except NW WA)

Simply untrue.

[DeepFriedEgg]

PDX fails to touch freezing so far.... DOA

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEM not biting on lowland snow.   

[snow_wizard]

Just getting even a little bit of snow after being missed during the big cold wave would be really nice.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That will be an enhanced c-zone with the continental air seeping into it.  This run shows north winds making it to the South Sound Monday night.  Looks decent.

If history is any guide... the GFS will be too aggressive with cold air moving south and the north wind.   Need more padding.   

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEM not biting on lowland snow.   

It all comes down to getting that dead zone between the two surface highs far enough south.  The ECMWF and GFS have been doing that.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

If history is any guide... the GFS will be too aggressive with cold air moving south and the north wind.   Need more padding.   

Exactly. Fraser seepage likely only makes it to Everett at best.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

If history is any guide... the GFS will be too aggressive with cold air moving south and the north wind.   Need more padding.   

I'm actually surprised the GFS hasn't lost the scent on this one like it did on most cold snaps recently.  Tonight's ECMWF will be very interesting.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm actually surprised the GFS hasn't lost the scent on this one like it did on most cold snaps recently.  Tonight's ECMWF will be very interesting.

Agreed... having the 18Z control on board for the same time frame was pretty big.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is so close, yet so far away.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEM not biting on lowland snow.   

I'm in the Pepto!

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEM not biting on lowland snow.   

About 3rd shade of grey! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is okay overall. Still cuts things off too far west. I'm afraid that may be our fate.

[MossMan]

Hehehe!!! 

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS shows Seattle right in the heart of the dead zone Monday night.  The 18z had the northern high a tad further south and the 12z was about the same.  We are in the running!

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, I mean most locations right on the water at sea level are not great for snow in the Puget Sound region, obviously.

But Seattle tends to do a little better than some areas further south like Fife and Puyallup, mainly due to occasional CZs, Arctic fronts, and Fraser Valley seepage that stalls.

Outside of Dec 1990 and March 2002, see: Dec 1996, Nov 1985, Dec 1984, Nov 2006, Nov 2010, Jan 2012, Jan 2020, Feb 2021.

Shadowing isn't a huge issue most of the time, because that's greatest with straight westerly or SW flow, which isn't usually ideal for snow anyway.

Shadowing absolutely impacts Seattle's snowfall compared to the wetter places further south. You just have to look at Olympia's averages to see that. The South Sound generally does better from that alone, and obviously Snohomish County does way better from the PSCZ which often picks up between Lynnwood and Shoreline. Seattle is in something of a snow-no-man's-land a lot of the time. 

 

Edited February 22 by BLI snowman

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is actually fairly close to being decent, just a bit to far west. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

28 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

First trough DOA for anyone below 1000' (except NW WA)

You truly have no idea what you are talking about. I don't think you even know what a snow profile looks like for the Puget sound.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GEFS shows Seattle right in the heart of the dead zone Monday night.  The 18z had the northern high a tad further south and the 12z was about the same.  We are in the running!

This is the second run showing that low off the coast. That could have major impacts to the current forecast if any further strengthen happens. Need to see if euro picks up on that.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEM not biting on lowland snow.   

1st shade of blue

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least we had a great CFS run today!

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At least we had a great CFS run today!

At least? We had great runs for Washington today 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

At least? We had great runs for Washington today 

Yeah, Monday and Tuesday looks fine. That trough looks locked in, but we are losing everything else unfortunately. 

Edited February 22 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, Monday and Tuesday looks fine. That trough looks locked in, but we are losing everything else unfortunately. 

Was it you that said you’d rather have the first trough work out well than have the pattern extended?

[ShawniganLake]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If history is any guide... the GFS will be too aggressive with cold air moving south and the north wind.   Need more padding.   

We are definitely in the range where the gfs is usually too aggressive with the cold. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Was it you that said you’d rather have the first trough work out well than have the pattern extended?

Yes, that is still true. Rather have something than nothing. Doesn't mean we don't all want MORE. The disease of MORE.

[ShawniganLake]

Steady light rain/ drizzle all Day today. 0.43”. 

[Front Ranger]

21 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Shadowing absolutely impacts Seattle's snowfall compared to the wetter places further south. You just have to look at Olympia's averages to see that. The South Sound generally does better from that alone, and obviously Snohomish County does way better from the PSCZ which often picks up between Lynnwood and Shoreline. Seattle is in something of a snow-no-man's-land a lot of the time. 

 

As someone who grew up in Tacoma and lived in Seattle, I can tell you that Tacoma definitely does not see more snow than Seattle on average. OLM is a different story, obviously. But Fife and Puyallup are definitely not OLM.

[bainbridgekid]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEM not biting on lowland snow.   

The GEM never seems to pick up on Convergence Zones well, so I wouldn't worry about that much as long as it keeps showing up on other models.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a slight shift EAST on the 2nd trough on the GEFS.

[GHweatherChris]

My best snowfall this season happened when it really shouldn't have......... so............

[Tanis Leach]

8 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Yeah, we already had 2020. All of us can enjoy a record low fire year of 2024!

FIFY