February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF does show a small amount of snow east of I-405 and 167 Monday night.  We might pick up a little bit.  The bad news is the model now has it above freezing by sunrise on Tuesday.

[TT-SEA]

Tons of rain on the ECMWF as well.   925mb temps are between +4C and +7C during this period.   No question it's rain.

[SnowWillarrive]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very true on him holding onto cold.  Even our area can do well with that.  We just need to get the snow!

Believe it or not there have been winters where our area does very well compared to places north of Seattle.  We have just been really unlucky on having lows track across SW WA in recent years.  Our time will come, and hopefully it will soon to tide me over until I can finally get out of here.

Seems like it’s been years since this area had sustained cold onshore flow with 500 foot snow levels. Although we have had some good snow events in recent years. I think I’ve become a bit spoiled. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Tons of rain on the ECMWF as well.   925mb tenps are between +4C and +7C during thisnperiod

This could really suck depending on how the second trough digs.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This could really suck depending on how the second trough digs.

Upper levels cool back down by Friday morning after AR plume moves east.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Seems like it’s been years since this area had sustained cold onshore flow with 500 foot snow levels. Although we have had some good snow events in recent years. I think I’ve become a bit spoiled. 

We hold onto cold when south winds rush up Puget Sound but are held to the west of us by easterly breezes.  Yes...we have had some decent winters recently.  We just haven't had one where our area has really shined compared to most.  It's just amazing we can't get a low to track across SW WA.  We have seen many track across NW OR (such as this winter, Jan 2017, Feb 2014, etc).

[TT-SEA]

The temp loop on the ECMWF shows the Seattle area barely touches freezing for a couple hours early Tuesday morning when it temporarily clears out... but otherwise it's well above freezing for the next 8 or 9 days.   This just doesn't feel like much of a snow situation for the Seattle area or even for my backyard.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF looks like the GEM by late next week with the action shifting southward into CA.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Well that's only like 5 more inches than what I average, so i would say it is fair to compare.

Didn't know that!  I'll have to look up more about your areas, sounds interesting. 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF does show cooler nights by next weekend when the precip is mostly gone.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Had a mostly sunny and mild 58/42 day here. Clear with a nearly full moon out tonight, and 42 currently.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What an awful EURO run. This is probably the first run of any model this week where I saw a clear path to getting no accumulating snow here next week. 

Edited February 23 by SilverFallsAndrew

[DeepFriedEgg]

Shocker (not). 
 

Turns out the air has to be cold for it to snow.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Shocker (not). 
 

Turns out the air has to be cold for it to snow.

Turns out the models change. Your earlier pessimism was unwarranted 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Favored locations still in the game but time for the lowland plebs to throw in the towel. Would be happy if I get to see some snow mixing into the rain at some point.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, DeepFriedEgg said:

Favored locations still in the game but time for the lowland plebs to throw in the towel. Would be happy if I get to see some snow mixing into the rain at some point.

2" WOULD BE A GOSHSEND.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

There were reasons the earlier runs were consistently showing snow here and that ship has sailed now.  You greatly underestimate how finely I know EXACTLY what it takes to get snow at my location.

Oh no, definitely not. I've always wondered how east wind access and varied topography effect snow prospects in your area. I really have only a college try at a guess, whereas you live there observing it with your own senses. Much like how most people don't understand like I do how the topography here in the Meadowbrook basin stops easterlies from scouring out fog and forms wicked temperature gradients over a small walking distance during warm ridging inversion setups in the late Fall. Or how Snowmizer understands the dynamics of Hood Canal CAD in his backyard during warm overrunning events better than anyone else on the forums.

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Turns out the models change. Your earlier pessimism was unwarranted 

Nah man onshore flow in late feb guarantees no widespread accumulations. You also have to account for the inevitable watering down as we get closer to the event. 
The trajectory of the trough and associated airmass was never going to cut it bro.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Will the EPS at least throw us a bone?!

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Nah man onshore flow in late feb guarantees no widespread accumulations. You also have to account for the inevitable watering down as we get closer to the event. 
The trajectory of the trough and associated airmass was never going to cut it bro.

Bro nobody was betting on widespread accumulations ever . The trajectory of the trough has changed a lot, you can’t pretend it hasn’t got worse.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm not throwing in the towel. The 12z runs were fantastic. 

[Slushy Inch]

Not sure I have much confidence in this given tonight’s runs.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Snowlova said:

Haven’t been able to even make a snowman since Dec 2021. Max depth of 0.9 inches since. 

Huh, I guess it has been that bad, hasn't it. The 2010s really hardened me so I haven't really thought of the recent stretch as particularly awful. Guess the increasingly potent cold has helped keep me satisfied anyways.

Looking forward to when the next MEATY 974mb heartstopper stalls just SW of Olympia, with a 1062mb Arctic high sitting pretty in west AB, cranking hard into BC in phase with the surface low... 

[SnowWillarrive]

15 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Not sure I have much confidence in this given tonight’s runs.

That’s phantom snow below 1,000 feet. 

[Cold Snap]

Well my dog just died and it really sucks because we couldn’t be there with him when he died. The person that was watching him took him to the emergency room and next thing we know we are getting a FaceTime from her and it’s of the vet putting him down. Just really sucks that we couldn’t be there for his death and we almost considered not going on this trip because he was having problems the other night right before we left. Just glad he’s in a better place now because it seemed like he had been suffering the past week.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Well my dog just died and it really sucks because we couldn’t be there with him when he died. The person that was watching him took him to the emergency room and next thing we know we are getting a FaceTime from her and it’s of the vet putting him down. Just really sucks that we couldn’t be there for his death and we almost considered not going on this trip because he was having problems the other night right before we left. Just glad he’s in a better place now because it seemed like he had been suffering the past week.

I'm so sorry man.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Well my dog just died and it really sucks because we couldn’t be there with him when he died. The person that was watching him took him to the emergency room and next thing we know we are getting a FaceTime from her and it’s of the vet putting him down. Just really sucks that we couldn’t be there for his death and we almost considered not going on this trip because he was having problems the other night right before we left. Just glad he’s in a better place now because it seemed like he had been suffering the past week.

That’s awful. I’ve been there in person for pets getting put down and that’s hard enough. I can’t imagine the guilt. I’m sorry you had to go through that.

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Since 2017 my average is right around 30 per year

 

 

It’s been a really good stretch.  I’ve averaged 40.5” per winter between 16/17 and 22/23.  If you include this winter so far my average has been 38” per winter over the last 8.  Pretty good stretch historically. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Nah man onshore flow in late feb guarantees no widespread accumulations. You also have to account for the inevitable watering down as we get closer to the event. 
The trajectory of the trough and associated airmass was never going to cut it bro.

My brother in Christ, onshore snow is the primary way we get the stuff after mid February.

[ShawniganLake]

Big wind potential next week on the 6Z with a sub 980mb low approaching south central Vancouver Island around day 6.  500mb pattern certainly looks ripe with potential for a wind storm. 

[TT-SEA]

6 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

Well my dog just died and it really sucks because we couldn’t be there with him when he died. The person that was watching him took him to the emergency room and next thing we know we are getting a FaceTime from her and it’s of the vet putting him down. Just really sucks that we couldn’t be there for his death and we almost considered not going on this trip because he was having problems the other night right before we left. Just glad he’s in a better place now because it seemed like he had been suffering the past week.

That is rough... so sorry to hear that. 

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

It’s been a really good stretch.  I’ve averaged 40.5” per winter between 16/17 and 22/23.  If you include this winter so far my average has been 38” per winter over the last 8.  Pretty good stretch historically. 

Warm summers and snowy winters... our climate has been attempting a Midwest impression in recent years.

[MossMan]

Foggy AM. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z GFS wasn’t bad. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

06z had massive snow here. Many different wet snow events.

Going to be a fun week.

[Timmy]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

06z GFS wasn’t bad. 

You are really struggling with this… you will get snow, Andrew.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Can some post a snow map from 06z gfs

[Cascadia_Wx]

Foggy and frosty this morning with a low of 34.

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Can some post a snow map from 06z gfs

 

[snow_wizard]

Big changes on the 6z ensembles with the second trough.  Considerably further east than 0z runs.  We'll see if that continues on the 12z runs.