February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Slushy Inch]

51 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Mid levels look cold enough for sure.  Surface temps are shown in the low 30s by sunset.

Idk egg guy said it isn’t happening 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

King County does well on this ECMWF run.  Some decent cold later in the run too.

Hmmm this isn’t nearly as horrible as I expected based on the comments. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Idk egg guy said it isn’t happening 

I mean egg guy

[SnowWillarrive]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF does bring back some King County snow late Monday afternoon and evening.

 

I want to believe 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This was actually a good euro run… 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not really.

How so? We now have multiple OP runs across a variety of models shifting west offshore. Seems they have latched on to something. Doesn't mean it can't change, but for now that is the trend. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows the action shifting to CA late next week like the other models.    But also shows a little snow in that period.

This appears to be my best window. 

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF looks good for King County on Monday evening too... increase from 00Z run.  

Much more believable because Tacoma gets jack shitt. 

[iFred]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just stupid.

Don't worry, you'll get a chance to call him that in the next ten days.

[iFred]

53 minutes ago, MossMan said:

No longer looking great for my area. I’m going to take down the Christmas lights today. 

Time to get things ready for the lake!

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, iFred said:

Don't worry, you'll get a chance to call him that in the next ten days.

This is stupid... I wouldn't do that to him.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up hitting 33 this morning. Very close to a freeze. 

Up almost 20 degrees now to 52 at noon. PDX is 51. Let’s see how warm today gets. At least it’s looking like our last mild day for a little bit.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Btw I’m loving your call for a 2010 like  progression these next few months @Phil

[Cascadia_Wx]

I haven’t been following the models too closely this week. At very least it looks like a somewhat extended cool and wet pattern coming starting Sunday. Should be great for the mountains, as well as some favored lowland spots, and of course KING ANDREW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One of the top analog composites for the upcoming pattern is March 1973. That was solidly chilly down this way with a -2.9 departure at SLE.

[SnowWillarrive]

42 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Much more believable because Tacoma gets jack shitt. 

Strong cut off over Fife

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Strong cut off over Fife

Maybe Puyallup scores?! 

[Phishy Wx]

Lulz

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Lulz

Wat? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really nifty CFS run. 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, iFred said:

Time to get things ready for the lake!

Yep…It’s over. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Lulz

What’s it like up there, sitting back with your arms smugly crossed , shaking your head as the rest of us paste eaters actually follow the weather?

I think that might be Matt’s box seat you’re in, btw.

[the_convergence_zone]

It’s pretty funny what the snow maps are spitting out. Gotta come back in 10 days and see how much measurable snow Sea-Tac actually gets, if any. 

[Snowlova]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It’s pretty funny what the snow maps are spitting out. Gotta come back in 10 days and see how much measurable snow Sea-Tac actually gets, if any. 

That’s a lot of phantom snow!

or is it…

[Jbolin]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It’s pretty funny what the snow maps are spitting out. Gotta come back in 10 days and see how much measurable snow Sea-Tac actually gets, if any. 

Less than a tenth, guaranteed.

[bainbridgekid]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It’s pretty funny what the snow maps are spitting out. Gotta come back in 10 days and see how much measurable snow Sea-Tac actually gets, if any. 

The models have gotten so much better at predicting nearly every metric other than lowland snow in marginal temperatures which they've somehow gotten worse at. Frustrating since that's the metric most of us care the most about. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Let’s see the eps snow maps!

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

The models have gotten so much better at predicting nearly every metric other than lowland snow in marginal temperatures which they've somehow gotten worse at. Frustrating since that's the metric most of us care the most about. 

Yeah I feel like we are revering back to the MRF days. Snow for everyone! Even in July! 

Edited February 23 by MossMan

[Phishy Wx]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

What’s it like up there, sitting back with your arms smugly crossed , shaking your head as the rest of us paste eaters actually follow the weather?

I think that might be Matt’s box seat you’re in, btw.

this one has been a one trick dud for the lionshare of the board (relative to average)

it's ok to move on brah

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

The models have gotten so much better at predicting nearly every metric other than lowland snow in marginal temperatures which they've somehow gotten worse at. Frustrating since that's the metric most of us care the most about. 

It does prevent meteorologists from being replaced by automation so at least that's a good thing? 

The relevant products are out there, they are just not available in the right format on WeatherBell. Model forecast snow depth is a more accurate metric but only the EPS mean is available in map form. It would be nice to have snow depth meteogram. 

Not surprisingly, the EPS mean snow depth never goes above 1-1.5" at Sea-Tac -- but even that much snow would be wonderful if it does materialize. 

[umadbro]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Let’s see the eps snow maps!

Through Monday evening 

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

this one has been a one trick dud for the lionshare of the board (relative to average)

it's ok to move on brah

Move on to what? Right now the models are showing a chilly and wet pattern into the 7-10 day range with snow chances in parts of the lowlands. It’s a great pattern especially for the mountains. Now sure what else you want people to talk about?

[T-Town]

41 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

What’s it like up there, sitting back with your arms smugly crossed , shaking your head as the rest of us paste eaters actually follow the weather?

I think that might be Matt’s box seat you’re in, btw.

Mmmm…. Paste. 

[TT-SEA]

I was noticing this the other day when we went by here in person... there are some flowering trees along East Lake Sammamish Parkway and these aren't parking lot trees.  

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I was noticing this the other day when we went by here in person... there are some flowering trees along East Lake Sammamish Parkway and these aren't parking lot trees.  

I noticed a few flowers and buds on my walk today. Spring is coming. 

[BLI snowman]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Really solid cold here.

Any sub-40 high in March is serious bidness. 

SEA hasn't had one since 2009.

[MWG]

What a beautiful day! Was having my walking break at work and there’s no clouds at all.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was noticing this the other day when we went by here in person... there are some flowering trees along East Lake Sammamish Parkway and these aren't parking lot trees.  

I’d be more impressed if that convertible Mini had its top down.

[DeepFriedEgg]

PDX is CRUSHING IT!!  Warmest  spot in the PNW for MILES!! BACK 2 BACK 60 BURGERRRRRRSSSS!! 

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Strong cut off over Fife

The Fife anti snow dome!