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March 2024 Weather in the PNW


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37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It was still dry and sunny. Highs were in the 50s and even 50s today, wasn’t like it was -20. We were also wasting precious time to build snow pack and fill our reservoirs. Every dry day is a lost opportunity in this climate. 

Andrew... that is silly hyperbole.  Don't assume everyone has the same OCD issues (by your own admission).    Seattle and Portland average around 200 dry days per year.   That makes dry days the majority.    

I will just bump @bainbridgekid post here because he said it very well.

8 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

We just had two weeks of much colder than normal weather including one of the coldest first weeks of March ever, had multiple minor lowland snow events, TONS of mountain snow AND still have 4 more stormy, cool days with feet of mountain snow to get through before the ridge. A week of nice, sunny, warm weather after that isn't hard to put a positive spin on.

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And was significantly colder than normal until today.    And back into troughing for the next 4 days.   

It was also clear and sunny yesterday... but sh*t, it was 47 degrees at SEA instead of 54. Might as well have been freezing rain.

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

It was also clear and sunny yesterday... but sh*t, it was 47 degrees at SEA instead of 54. Might as well have been freezing rain.

I have no complaints about this week... but most of it was cold troughing.    That is obvious.     So some balancing out is to be expected.

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The western troughing signal is showing up now on the GEFS later in the run... appears to be a theme now across the models and would make sense from a climo perspective.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1108800.png

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00Z ECMWF also hints at the beginning of the evolution to western troughing at the end of the run.   Although that eastern trough looks really solid as well and it would probably need to progress eastward.  

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-0806400.png

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The western troughing signal is showing up now on the GEFS later in the run... appears to be a theme now across the models and would make sense from a climo perspective.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1108800.png

Looks much more focused in CA/SW than PNW. As expected in a Niño.

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By late in the run the 00Z EPS is closer to retrogression than it's 12Z run.  

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1238400.png

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One more day of early runs and then we wait an extra hour.   Luckily that just puts the ECMWF back to finishing by 11 p.m. instead of midnight like it would have been without the upgrade.

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5 hours ago, iFred said:

Happy French 60th!

Thank you Fred!

 

 

31 here at timberline currently, 24 at my home station after a 55/10 day. Good night everybody!

Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th

Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated April 29th) 88"

Snow depth at my home (updated April 29th) late season 1"!

23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated April 29th) 92"!!

 

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10 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Dustbowl was largely man-made no? 

No. Well, the dust itself was made worse by poor farming practices but the weather pattern responsible for the heat/drought was forced externally (tropical forcing/ET teleconnections).

Look at the paleo records across the North American plains, there have been many similar periods of heat/drought throughout the last 2 millennia, all with accelerated dune mobilization. The dust bowl wasn’t even the worst one. Not even close, actually.  

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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9 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Coming up on 9 t'storm days tonight.. yeah I think she done! :P

You’re going to have a huge severe weather season. Good luck. 😬 

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The western troughing signal is showing up now on the GEFS later in the run... appears to be a theme now across the models and would make sense from a climo perspective.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1108800.png

Blech. I fully expect 80+ degree weather before the end of the month.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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6 hours ago, Phil said:

You’re going to have a huge severe weather season. Good luck. 😬 

It seems like its gearing towards one.. in 2022 I would barely be at my first thunder right now and those were garden variety in early Spring.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 26
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Ya know normally I stay out of this children's drama you let continue on here but what I don't understand is you continually complain about some members on here and how they just need to take the weather how it comes and I agree with this, but you post these non stop posts like this to add fuel to the fire. The only thing that makes sense is you enjoy the drama and you look forward to stirring the pot. Why?  And there is no sideways comment you can make to this to try and wiggle out of the obvious.  This is nothing more than poking drama at a few members. Even me engaging in this is embarrassing because drama is a terrible force. 

Because if we just had two weeks of record heat... Jesse would post about prayers for those having to endure 5 days of troughing.   Guaranteed.   And he will do it all summer every time there are marine layer days.   Or post about prayers for people's gardens... etc. etc. etc.   Simple as that.   If you can't see that the shoe fits when the tables are turned then you are only seeing one side.   He literally pokes fun at certain members every single day.   Its amazing how a few people here take such offense when its thrown back at him.   

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7 hours ago, Phil said:

Blech. I fully expect 80+ degree weather before the end of the month.

The end of the ECMWF AI run confirms what you are saying.    Seems like ridging over there is the default now despite short periods of deep troughing.

ecmwf-aifs-all-namer-z500_anom-1260000 (1).png

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March is running -6.2 at SEA almost 1/3rd of the way through the month.   

Also -7.1 at BLI and -5.7 at OLM.

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Full retrogression happening on the GEFS later in the run... consistent theme now.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1346400 (1).png

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Pretty big change from the last few mornings to this one. After a string of cold and frosty mornings with lows in the 20s, had a low of just 44 here with breezy, overcast conditions and light rain at times. Looking forward to the stormier pattern the next 3-4 days.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Looks like we hit 35 overnight, currently 40 with rain falling. Looks like the Cascades above 4500' in N. Oregon should be receiving 1-2' of snow. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nice to see the 06z GFS shift back to a quick breakdown of the ridge. I still think there’s some hope for a progression like this. The EPS has been pretty stubborn, though.

IMG_0852.png

Either way we are only looking at 2-4 days max of really warm weather.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Either way we are only looking at 2-4 days max of really warm weather.

That is how arctic air usually works as well around here.    High amplification usually breaks down quickly.

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Or high amplification shifts... large area of very cold air quite close by day 12 on the GFS.

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-1000800.png

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Or high amplification shifts... large area of very cold air quite close by day 12 on the GFS.

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-1000800.png

Was going to take the plow off the mower this weekend…perhaps I should wait…Though I need to mow my unmolested grass soon…1st world problems for sure…

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Was going to take the plow off the mower this weekend…perhaps I should wait…Though I need to mow my unmolested grass soon…1st world problems for sure…

12Z GFS says wait... its coming again.

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-1709985600-1710979200-1711108800-10.gif

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS says wait... its coming again.

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-1709985600-1710979200-1711108800-10.gif

I might get that one more inch to get to a double digit seasonal snowfall totals after all! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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GFS looks like quite a blessing. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS looks like quite a blessing. 

The really cold air will probably only last 2-4 days max.  ;)

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

The really cold air will probably only last 2-4 days max.  ;)

Better to have loved and lost than never loved at all.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I might get that one more inch to get to a double digit seasonal snowfall totals after all! 

Or maybe much more.

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_72hr-1260000.png

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Hard to not like the 12z GFS.  I really like where this year is going.  Alternating sharp troughing and ridging can bring some of our best spring weather.  Not much gloom, lots of cold nights, and some really enjoyable days.

The worst type of spring IMO is when the pattern is flat and we get nothing but gloom and it drizzles on us day after day.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Or maybe much more.

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_72hr-1260000.png

Just a couple inches here, but we have room to improve on this. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Hard to not like the 12z GFS.  I really like where this year is going.  Alternating sharp troughing and ridging can bring some of our best spring weather.  Not much gloom, lots of cold nights, and some really enjoyable days.

The worst type of spring IMO is when the pattern is flat and we get nothing but gloom and it drizzles on us day after day.

HOT DAWG

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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29 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Was going to take the plow off the mower this weekend…perhaps I should wait…Though I need to mow my unmolested grass soon…1st world problems for sure…

A man of your means and sophistication should not have to take that blade off and on. Get a second mower dedicated to mowing. 

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