April 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Ended up with about an inch, which is all melted now. Evaporational cooling brought the temp down to 31, and it is now up to 36.

Looks pretty snowy at Mount Bachelor too!

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Very short term thinking, Tim. What happened for a 10 day window in mid March was also "very anomalous" in a vacuum. That doesn't change the bigger picture which shows that it's been a fairly typical and enjoyable spring so far. With a tinge of balance now ongoing as one would expect. Nothing crazy though. It doesn't always have to have some bigger implications. 

Besides, since 2014 literally everything has been a harbinger of a warm summer. It hasn't mattered what May does since we've been batting a thousand anyways. But to humor your theory, the most summery Mays in that timeframe (2015, 2018, 2023) have definitely been foretelling of hotter and drier summers. 

Also trees leafed out perfectly normal this year.   It's been nice so far... just wish the rainy/cold periods bought more rain.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

For the first time ever, I am on @Cascadia_Wx's side here. Summer is going to be hot and dry regardless of deep long spring troughing. We have aprox 6 weeks to load up the water table. WE NEED RAIN. 

Ehhh.   I would feel better about a 2019 type summer ahead with a warm/dry May.  A summer with basically zero smoke and it stayed green all summer.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

May 2022.   Rapidly evolving Nina in a post Tonga world.    Not that it matters what we want... but I have a bad feeling where this is going. 

Summer (mid June to mid September) is almost certainly going to find a way to be hot and dry here compared to 20th century norms regardless. The last decade plus now is pretty solid evidence of that and I've made my peace with it.

I for one happen to greatly enjoy the sub seasonal variety where it's still possible i. e. right now.  

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Really nice day in Talkeetna Alaska, and the Denali area. Not a cloud in the sky, which is very rare there! Hopefully I will get weather like this when I arrive in Talkeetna in 12 days.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That doesn't change the bigger picture which shows that it's been a fairly typical and enjoyable spring so far.

Would agree with this for sure. Some swings both ways have balanced out nicely.

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Really nice day in Talkeetna Alaska, and the Denali area. Not a cloud in the sky, which is very rare there! Hopefully I will get weather like this when I arrive in Talkeetna in 12 days.

Looks beautiful. Would love to visit Alaska one day.

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Would agree with this for sure. Some swings both ways have balanced out nicely.

Things have leaned warmish and dryish, which is par for the course these days, but I would agree it’s been an enjoyably variable spring overall. Especially compared to post-niño nightmares like 2015 and 2016.

[LowerGarfield]

Took the day off for my son's pediatric dental appointment. One of those places where the kids watch a movie on headphones. They do good work.

We said goodbye to Flat Stanley today. I decided to walk his envelope to the post office. 1 block away from home it starting hailing lots of small hail. There was a very light cloud to the west and as it passed got totally drenched and briefly had a small headache from the hail. 

Flat Stanley was fine and switched to a priority envelope. She (this version's a girl) is heading to Tulsa next and missed the storms there recently. 

[the_convergence_zone]

21 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

For the first time ever, I am on @Cascadia_Wx's side here. Summer is going to be hot and dry regardless of deep long spring troughing. We have aprox 6 weeks to load up the water table. WE NEED RAIN. 

It’s not as bad as it could be due to the lack of evaporation and lack of snow melt. This pattern is arguably better for our hydrologic outlook than a rain dump from an atmospheric river with a 9,000 ft snow level followed by 80+ degree heat in the lowlands. 

The streamflow in the Elwha looks pretty brutal though, even as the rivers on the windward side have bounced back to normal streamflow for now. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It’s not as bad as it could be due to the lack of evaporation and lack of snow melt. This pattern is arguably better for our hydrologic outlook than an atmospheric river with a 9,000 ft snow level followed by 80+ degree heat in the lowlands. 

The streamflow in the Elwha looks pretty brutal though, even as the rivers on the windward side have bounced back to normal streamflow for now. 

The elwha river watershed is F*cked. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

The elwha river watershed is F*cked. 

At least they took out the dams.

[Deweydog]

Sun brakes!

[TT-SEA]

My sense going into this spring was warm/dry May and more pleasant summer with several rain events.     A cold/wet May would change my prediction for summer.   Maybe it doesn't matter but that was my thinking.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sun brakes!

Are they warm sun brakes?

[Phil]

4 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Boone, NC has a pretty nice climate.

Beech Mountain/Banner Elk NC is awesome. About a mile up, never once reached 90°F, lots of summer storms and averages 50-60” of snow every winter.

Only downside is the hellacious winds at times.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like a nice dump of snow in the Oregon Cascades this morning with temps solidly below freezing at pass level. Sure glad Timberline Lodge didn’t burn down a few weeks ago.

The 6th pic  

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

All this celebration for abnormally crappy weather feels like May 2022 all over again.    Also a rapidly evolving Nina that year.    Feels like a nasty offset might be ahead.   Personally I would prefer climo weather.   But we don't have a choice.   I didn't like spring 2022 and sure didn't like late summer and fall 2022.   I might be saying I told you so by July.    And I won't be happy about the heat and smoke either.   

It may very well flip warm (I think the entire lower-48 will end up warm if not outright torching) but it probably won’t look like 2022 in terms of the long wave pattern.

That was an established 3rd year niña, reflected in the off-equator components of tropical forcing. Right now the default state is still more niño than niña, albeit weaking rapidly.

[Cascadia_Wx]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

The 6th pic  

 

[Phil]

31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My sense going into this spring was warm/dry May and more pleasant summer with several rain events.     A cold/wet May would change my prediction for summer.   Maybe it doesn't matter but that was my thinking.

Niño to Niña summers are a unique animal. The seasonal pattern tendencies stand out like a sore thumb from all other ENSO evolutions. I don’t think years that aren’t niño to niña transitions will work as seasonal pattern analogs.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Things have leaned warmish and dryish, which is par for the course these days, but I would agree it’s been an enjoyably variable spring overall. Especially compared to post-niño nightmares like 2015 and 2016.

Ahh, you’re finally seeing the light.

This spring could have been soooo much worse out there. If I were in your shoes I’d be grateful it’s turning out near average.

[Phil]

Yeesh.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Atlantic Ocean is at the end of that path.

You lucked out with all the on your trip. I wish I lived there and having the in your backyard would be beautiful.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Ended up with about an inch, which is all melted now. Evaporational cooling brought the temp down to 31, and it is now up to 36.

Looks pretty snowy at Mount Bachelor too!

Seeing this while it’s 92°F here makes me want to like there’s no tomorrow.  

[Phil]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Atlantic Ocean is at the end of that path.

Looks like St. Simons, absent the 100yr old live oaks. I can smell the salty Atlantic air just looking at that pic.  

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

You lucked out with all the on your trip. I wish I lived there and having the in your backyard would be beautiful.

My wife decided today as we were sitting by the pool that within 5 years we should sell our house and get a waterfront condo in Kirkland with a boat slip and then another condo near the ocean in Naples Florida.   We would be in WA from late April through October and Florida the rest of year.  No yard work or maintenance and we live mostly in perpetually perfect weather.   I am having a hard time finding an argument against it.   

[Cascadia_Wx]

34 minutes ago, Phil said:

Ahh, you’re finally seeing the light.

This spring could have been soooo much worse out there. If I were in your shoes I’d be grateful it’s turning out near average.

I’ve never said otherwise. It could have ended up a lot worse. But I wouldn’t call a slightly warmer and drier than average spring a raging Jesse pattern either

[BLI snowman]

32 minutes ago, Phil said:

Niño to Niña summers are a unique animal. The seasonal pattern tendencies stand out like a sore thumb from all other ENSO evolutions. I don’t think years that aren’t niño to niña transitions will work as seasonal pattern analogs.

The four 21st century summers that most closely fit the bill are 2005, 2010, 2016, and 2020.

2010 skews this map a little bit cold, but even the other years were fairly consistent in that they also managed to have a more muted midsummer peak than our recent norms and in some cases had a more abbreviated warm season overall. Main takeaway seems to be at least that the hottest anomalies in midsummer will more likely be focused to our east.

 

 

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My wife decided today as we were sitting by the pool that within 5 years we should sell our house and get a waterfront condo in Kirkland with a boat slip and then another condo near the ocean in Naples Florida.   We would be in WA from late April through October and Florida the rest of year.  No yard work or maintenance and we live mostly in perpetually perfect weather.   I am having a hard time finding an argument against it.   

You don’t want a yard?? I’m honestly surprised to hear that. Your current backyard is drop dead beautiful.

A yard with mature trees is a prerequisite for me anywhere we decide to live long-term.

[Chewbacca Defense]

5 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Boone, NC has a pretty nice climate.

I would probably look at Asheville if I were to have to move back east, but I would definitely be checking out Boone before a final decision was made...

[bainbridgekid]

GFS has Saturday in the low 70's in Seattle and Euro has us struggling to get out of the low 50's and rainy.

 

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The four 21st century summers that most closely fit the bill are 2005, 2010, 2016, and 2020.

2010 skews this map a little bit cold, but even the other years were fairly consistent in that they also managed to have a more muted midsummer peak than our recent norms and in some cases had a more abbreviated warm season overall. Main takeaway seems to be at least that the hottest anomalies in midsummer will more likely be focused to our east.

 

 

Yeah, niño —> niña summers with descending +QBO/W-shear have produced the same general outcome in the post-WWII era. 2010 was cooler in the west for reasons not entirely related to ENSO, and I wouldn’t expect that to repeat this summer.

If we had -QBO/E-shear with niña onset like 1998 or 2008, there’d be reason for optimism (at least on a national level). But we have the exact opposite this year. Every variable is aligned against cool airmass intrusion into the lower 48 this summer.

I’m most worried about repeating a pattern like 1988, which in today’s climate would likely result in every state in the lower-48 running well above average, and probably the hottest summer on record nationally.

[MossMan]

42 minutes ago, Phil said:

Seeing this while it’s 92°F here makes me want to like there’s no tomorrow.  

Currently 48 degrees and sunny here! 

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I would probably look at Asheville if I were to have to move back east, but I would definitely be checking out Boone before a final decision was made...

Asheville can still get warm/muggy, though. And it’s largely removed from the upslope snow areas further N/NW. I’m a picky son of a b**ch, I know.  

Banner Elk is the real deal. Saw it once and was sold instantly. Ridgetops like beech mountain are cold enough that trees are stunted, and housing infrastructure is relatively new up there too.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

GFS has Saturday in the low 70's in Seattle and Euro has us struggling to get out of the low 50's and rainy.

 

Unfortunately ECMWF is going to win.

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, Phil said:

You don’t want a yard?? I’m honestly surprised to hear that. Your current backyard is drop dead beautiful.

A yard with mature trees is a prerequisite for me anywhere we decide to live long-term.

Sooooo much work.   Feels like it will eventually become daunting as we start to get older.   My wife loves it now though.  But my recent injury has made her more aware of the challenges that could lie ahead.

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sooooo much work.   Feels like it will eventually become daunting as we start to get older.   My wife loves it now though. 

You could circumvent that issue if you went all-in and purchased an oceanfront lot or even something within 1/4 mile of the coast. That acidic, sandy soil and salty air is a kickass weed control system, and it only allows certain plants to grow.

Infinitely harder to maintain a yard here in MD than down in St. Simon’s. Which seems counterintuitive at first, but it is absolutely true.

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently 48 degrees and sunny here! 

We had a hard time pulling that off in the middle of winter. If it weren’t for those 2 weeks in January, it would’ve been another dud.

[bainbridgekid]

32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Unfortunately ECMWF is going to win.

I'm afraid you're probably right. Would be terrible for opening day of boating season. I'll be out either way, but . . . Gross.

[Cascadia_Wx]

49 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

GFS has Saturday in the low 70's in Seattle and Euro has us struggling to get out of the low 50's and rainy.

 

Go Euro !!