May 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Afterall, bear spray is only 94% effective at deterring a charging grizz.

That seems pretty good. Almost as effective as a condom.

[Cold Snap]

29 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Flying to Anchorage Alaska tommorow afternoon and will stay 2 nights in Talkeetna, pretty lucky for this solar storm to overlap with our trip up to the land of the northern lights, but unfortunately it's looking super cloudy tommorow night. Maybe we'll get a miracle...

Is there any chance of a light show on Saturday night? It's looking like we have a chance of getting a couple of open patches in the clouds thst night, would love to see the aurora!

Would it even be dark enough this time of year to see them in Alaska? I’m pretty sure Anchorage doesn’t get darker than Nautical twilight this time of year.

[Cold Snap]

Had a 74/39 day today. Looks like it probably won’t get below the mid 40s here tonight. Probably my last sub-40 low until fall.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

15 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

As a selfish person who often goes solo backpacking there, screw that and screw the bears. It was bad enough having them in Wyoming and Montana where i have had a few grizzly charges in my lifetime, now they're putting them in Washington too...

I understand how rare grizzly attacks are and that it's not common enough for if to be something worth worrying about, and how they benefit the eco system, but I'd be lying if I didn't say I'd prefer not having them. I love a friendly encounter with them, they are beautiful and amazing creatures to see, but I've had few too many unfriendly counters with the grizzlies for me to want to be anywear near them. Afterall, bear spray is only 94% effective at deterring a charging grizz.

Nature isn't Disneyland. Wilderness should mean the risk of being eaten.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

52 currently, 67/32 day and yesterday was a 57/16 day.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Nature isn't Disneyland. Wilderness should mean the risk of being eaten.

Totally agree with you. But the selfish part of me that doesn't want to get painfully and slowly murdered by a bear (rarely do you get eaten), does not agree.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like the goofus is sticking to its goof guns. Post-2013 style double barrel heatwave incoming. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

9 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Would it even be dark enough this time of year to see them in Alaska? I’m pretty sure Anchorage doesn’t get darker than Nautical twilight this time of year.

Talkeetna only gets as dark as mid-nautical twilight tommorow night, which is dark enough to see it if it is a strong aurora. Wouldn't be able to see a weak one.

[snow_wizard]

24 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Had a 74/39 day today. Looks like it probably won’t get below the mid 40s here tonight. Probably my last sub-40 low until fall.

I doubt that.  We have a good shot at another low below 40 next week.  The models are all over the place with that situation, but a chilly outcome has a decent chance of happening.

[snow_wizard]

25 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like the goofus is sticking to its goof guns. Post-2013 style double barrel heatwave incoming. 

The 18z EPS was actually cooler than the 12z for the middle of next week.  I say the GFS is smoking crack when it shows SEA hitting 95 in mid May.

 

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF shows a nice clipper next week.  I love those things!

[Cascadia_Wx]

27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I doubt that.  We have a good shot at another low below 40 next week.  The models are all over the place with that situation, but a chilly outcome has a decent chance of happening.

What the GFS is spitting out for next week is pretty absurd. But absurd looking heat solutions have a tendency to verify these days.

Haven't had a chance to browse the full Euro yet but I’m glad to see it might be looking better.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Praying for 100 burgers

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

ECMWF shows a nice clipper early next week.  I love those things!

You don't say!   Have you mentioned loving clippers before? 

00Z ECMWF is a little warmer than its 12Z run for the middle of next week but still shows 3 decent rain events for us.   Actually a decent mix of sun and rain.   Even I am hoping the extreme heat on the GFS doesn't verify.   I like warmth but that is too much of a good thing way too soon.

Monday is going to look so lush with c-zone rain for King County after 4 days of sun and warmth.  Perfect timing too waiting the the weekend is over.   

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Praying for 100 burgers

I think of May 1983.   Nature balanced that out with two months of rain in June and July.  

[TT-SEA]

For those tracking the crash later on Sunday... ECMWF is still sunny for most of western WA at 5 p.m. but then its raining in Seattle by Monday morning.  

Here is 5 p.m. clouds/temps and highs for the day.   Should get the full day to enjoy on Sunday except along the coast. 

[TT-SEA]

And then Monday morning. 

[TT-SEA]

EPS is less troughy later next week than 12Z run.   Looks like sort of a compromise between its operational run and the GFS.

12Z run on top... and 00Z.

[TT-SEA]

EPS is still troughy in the long range.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with an 81/43 day here. Cool start but it warmed up quickly with clear skies and breezy east winds starting around midday.

One of the more mild evenings year to date right now, with the temp currently at 60 approaching midnight.

[TT-SEA]

Worth mentioning the GEM and ICON were actually very ridgy... much closer to the GFS.   ECMWF is on its own for now.

[Meatyorologist]

temporary pullback

#itscoming

[Meatyorologist]

yeesh

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Back in Springfield. Pleasant night under the stars. 50F

[Tyler Mode]

Barrow (Utqiaġvik) this morning at 3:59 AM. The sun rose there this morning at 2:44 AM and now will not set until August 1st.

[TT-SEA]

We might not be able to track the models after today... it would be total chaos without the internet!

[Phishy Wx]

9 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The geomagnetic storm warning on the 11th pertains to universal (i.e. Greenwich) time. May 11th universal time is from 5:00 pm local time Friday the 10th to 5:00 pm local time Saturday the 11th. In other words, the best chance of a light show is Friday night and Saturday morning, not Saturday night.

Thanks for that

[Phishy Wx]

7 hours ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Praying for 100 burgers

Handle checks out

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On the Grizzly topic. The North Cascades reintroduction is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever heard. That area is just being discovered by social media influencers. 

[Phil]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

And now the 00z ICON looks like the GFS again.  

Aaaaand the 06z is back in the Euro/EPS camp.

This is fun to watch, especially since it doesn’t really affect me. Pure entertainment.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

We might not be able to track the models after today... it would be total chaos without the internet!

A couple months without internet would probably be healthy for society as a whole, especially Gen-Z which likely has a collective IQ below 70.  

[Phil]

7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Worth mentioning the GEM and ICON were actually very ridgy... much closer to the GFS.   ECMWF is on its own for now.

The GFS/GEFS is still the structural outlier, though. GEPS/EPS are much more similar in terms of the overall pattern, even with regional differences.

But that doesn’t say much about which one is right/wrong, though I’ll give 65/35 odds that the GFS will fold today. We’ll see.  

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

The GFS/GEFS is still the structural outlier, though. GEPS/EPS are much more similar in terms of the overall pattern, even with regional differences.

But that doesn’t say much about which one is right/wrong, though I’ll give 65/35 odds that the GFS will fold today. We’ll see.  

I am certain the GFS will fold today.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am certain the GFS will fold today.

Ballsy! I’m not certain at all. I can see a conduit to the GFS solution verifying this time.

The reason I’m skeptical is because the progression on the GFS *perfectly* fits its springtime bias towards amplifying Aleutian/GOA lows. I can’t trust it.

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am certain the GFS will fold today.

Meanwhile, the 6z doubled down and went full Apocalypse Jesse.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Aaaaand the 06z is back in the Euro/EPS camp.

This is fun to watch, especially since it doesn’t really affect me. Pure entertainment.

Ultimately the smoke will impact your area. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I am certain the GFS will fold today.

If not please join me at a WAKE for our biosphere. It will be held at Sammammish Lake.

[TacomaWx]

lol looks like I picked a bad time to go way south for a northern lights show. 

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Ultimately the smoke will impact your area. 

116 active fires in BC currently. 

[Phishy Wx]

54 minutes ago, Phil said:

A couple months without internet would probably be healthy for society as a whole, especially Gen-Z which likely has a collective IQ below 70.  

I'd like it except for the part of losing my job