May 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'd like it except for the part of losing my job

The economy would collapse without the internet. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'd like it except for the part of losing my job

You wouldn't be alone!    And they would have to snail mail you your termination notice. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Ultimately the smoke will impact your area. 

Usually need troughing to advect smoke down here, and I doubt we’ll see much troughing this summer given the collapse of the niño regime (and likely onset of niña conditions).

Plus, is there any biomass left to burn in Canada after last year’s atrocity? The sheer amount of crap in the air was absurd given how far away the fires were. Yeah most summer days are hazy here, but not *smoggy* like that.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Smoke season starts on Memorial Day this year?

Quote

On Thursday, Minister of Forests Bruce Ralston said the heat over the weekend could lead to an increase in wildfires. 

Ralston said the northeast, particularly around Fort Nelson, is most at risk because of high temperatures and wind. The vast majority of wildfires burning in B.C. right now are in the Prince George Fire Centre, which comprises the province's northeastern quarter.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/hot-weekend-b-c-may-2024-1.7198654

[Phil]

I wonder if all that smoke/soot last summer might’ve served as CCN to some degree? The thunderstorms last summer were very intense..we met/exceeded severe criteria in terms of wind and/or hail more than a dozen times, which hasn’t happened since 2014. Even had hail in September, for the first time in my life.

Though it could’ve just been the troughy niño pattern (2014 was also the last summer with that degree of troughing). Still an interesting thought experiment, though.

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Smoke season starts on Memorial Day this year?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/hot-weekend-b-c-may-2024-1.7198654

A dry cold front is set to bring 45mph wind gusts to the NE part of the province later today. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

A dry cold front is set to bring 45mph wind gusts to the NE part of the province later today. 

Yes, and then it will probably take a bit for the fires to build to where they are producing a good amount of smoke. Hence my Memorial Day comment.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ICON looks like the ECMWF suite.   It has abandoned the strong ridge idea.    12Z GFS is going to fold like a house of cards.  

[Phil]

9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I think of May 1983.   Nature balanced that out with two months of rain in June and July.  

Wasn’t May 1993 ridgy out there too?

Then again, both 1983 and 1993 are crappy analogs because they retained clean niño elements into/through the summer, unlike this year (residual niño LF signal is already imploding and will likely be gone entirely by the solstice).

So a ridgy May this year doesn’t indicate the same thing about the system state that it did in ‘83 and ‘93, all else being equal.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ICON looks like the ECMWF suite.   It has abandoned the strong ridge idea.    12Z GFS is going to fold like a house of cards.  

Never underestimate the GFS’s ability to cling to a goofy solution until the last possible minute.

And once in a blue moon, the goofy solution is correct. Doesn’t seem likely this go around, but it’s not impossible.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

A couple months without internet would probably be healthy for society as a whole, especially Gen-Z which likely has a collective IQ below 70.  

Ok boomer

But yes I agree with you

[Phil]

Another night filled with soft, rolling thunder, followed by a cloudy/drizzly day in the 50s. I could get used to this.

Too bad these backdoor marine cool fronts turn into humidity fronts after the solstice. Our friend becomes our enemy.

[Phishy Wx]

31 minutes ago, Phil said:

I wonder if all that smoke/soot last summer might’ve served as CCN to some degree? The thunderstorms last summer were very intense..we met/exceeded severe criteria in terms of wind and/or hail more than a dozen times, which hasn’t happened since 2014. Even had hail in September, for the first time in my life.

Though it could’ve just been the troughy niño pattern (2014 was also the last summer with that degree of troughing). Still an interesting thought experiment, though.

Smoke puts a lot of aerosols in the Atmosphere so maybe

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Never underestimate the GFS’s ability to cling to a goofy solution until the last possible minute.

And once in a blue moon, the goofy solution is correct. Doesn’t seem likely this go around, but it’s not impossible.

And when the GFS completely caves... the ECMWF will probably trend back to ridging.   

[RentonHill]

typical model flippy floppy according to my chart

[Phil]

GFS made a pretty substantial move towards the Euro/EPS w/rt the NW-Pacific anticyclone and ULL underneath.

Probably not enough to cave the downstream solution, but one more move like that will seal the deal.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS made a pretty substantial move towards the Euro/EPS w/rt the NW-Pacific anticyclone and ULL underneath.

Probably not enough to cave the downstream solution, but one more move like that will seal the deal.

Hour 138 still looks pretty hot. 

[Phil]

There’s another element I didn’t see before re: bifurcation point in the pattern/guidance.

The GFS/GEFS (and half of GEPS members) take a second shortwave trough and dig/phase it with the pre-existing ULL under the NW-Pacific anticyclone, while the Euro/EPS and ICON keep it relatively progressive.

That is the ultimate difference maker. And while the GFS is almost always too aggressive in digging such shortwaves even within 48hrs, the CMC isn’t (at least not to the same degree).

The smallest differences in the handling of the NW-Pacific situation makes a massive difference downstream!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[RentonHill]

fuuuu

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[Phil]

So in reality it’s not only the situation in the GOA, but the amplification (or lack there-of) of the NW-Pacific ridge and phasing of the 2nd shortwave with the ULL.

So even if the GFS is wrong w/rt the structure of the in-situ GOA trough, it could still end up correct about the ridge prograding into the PNW if it’s correct w/rt phasing the 2nd shortwave with the ULL upstream.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

@Cascadia_Wx For your sanity, don't look at the 12z

[SnowWillarrive]

Willamette valley will probably hit 100 degrees 

[snow_wizard]

The Nina is starting to really show itself now.  Also quite a profound -PDO.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Willamette valley will probably hit 100 degrees 

That would be super hard to pull off this early.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The Nina is starting to really show itself now.  Also quite a profound -PDO.

Hot summer incoming!  

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

@Cascadia_Wx For your sanity, don't look at the 12z

12Z GEM isn't much better.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

@Cascadia_Wx For your sanity, don't look at the 12z

I can take it. Far from my first rodeo with this sort of thing. Record breaking heatwaves are the norm these days.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

@Cascadia_Wx For your sanity, don't look at the 12z

Eh...there is such a high chance it's wrong.  It's easy to see why the model are all over the place by the middle of next week.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hot summer incoming!  

Probably.  I could see July being decent though.

[AlTahoe]

Solar storm tonight is supposed to be very impressive. Hopefully some of you get some great shots of it. I am going to head down to the lake tonight in hopes that I can get some reflection shots. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

Solar storm tonight is supposed to be very impressive. Hopefully some of you get some great shots of it. I am going to head down to the lake tonight in hopes that I can get some reflection shots. 

I am at this moment starting to pack up so I can go camping away from urban light pollution tonight.

Weather conditions could not possibly be better.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM isn't much better.  

The ICON is going the clipper route for next week.

 

[Phil]

Alright, so FWIW I’m now quite certain the GFS is wrong with how aggressively it phases that shortwave with ULL in the GOA. Not that it’s wrong in doing so, or wrong w/rt the downstream ridge, but very few of the GEFS members (and none of the GEPS members) are that aggressive with the phasing and deepening at that longitude. And those model suites are the only ones that have entertained the idea to begin with.

In the end, I think I like my original call from a week ago, with the second ridge prograding to near the west-coast but centered offshore, (technically a discontinuous retrogression of mean-period ridge axis) up until the pattern breaks after the ~ 25th.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I am at this moment starting to pack up so I can go camping away from urban light pollution tonight.

Weather conditions could not possibly be better.

Hopefully it will actually pan out.  Aurorae are harder to predict than weather.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Kind of hard to figure out why people are acting so shocked by the models staying hot. We had five days in the 90s down here just last May. I could see this being similar with maybe a higher peak.

Edited May 10 by Cascadia_Wx

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I am at this moment starting to pack up so I can go camping away from urban light pollution tonight.

Weather conditions could not possibly be better.

I'm not sure where I want to go tonight. Maybe the coast, maybe hurricane ridge, maybe just stay on the property. This is a strong storm so it might be overhead visible. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Hopefully it will actually pan out.  Aurorae are harder to predict than weather.

Its already here. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

We might not be able to track the models after today... it would be total chaos without the internet!

And I'm going to be in alaska for it! I wonder if it'll extreme enough that I need to protect my electronic devices like my phone, cameras, Garmin inreach, etc... Hopefully not!

7 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Solar storm tonight is supposed to be very impressive. Hopefully some of you get some great shots of it. I am going to head down to the lake tonight in hopes that I can get some reflection shots. 

Will you be far enough north? Seems like the viewing extent will only go as far south as mid/south oregon