December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

This run is cooler in the short range than the 00z. More NW flow w/ that more robust ridge amplification over the NE Pac.

[Meatyorologist]

Day 5

[Meatyorologist]

Day 6

[Meatyorologist]

06z has much higher heights over the arctic than the 00z. Might be picking up on that SSW, or maybe that's not how that works. I'm not a climate scientist. Anyhoo...

Nice low bombing out off the southern BC coast.

[Meatyorologist]

Day 7

[Meatyorologist]

Day 8

[Meatyorologist]

Day 9

[Gradient Keeper]

The biggest key on this run is similar to 00z. Day 7-9, how is the energy handled with the cut-off low that's sandwiched between that high pressure cell. IF a trend emerges to shunt that south cutting off into a Kona, we could possibly go into a very cold pattern much sooner than anticipated as a block would bolster itself right near ~155-145 W. We can't rule that out I suppose. This run may go bonkers cold Day 10+ as it is.

[Meatyorologist]

Hmmmm... Day 10+ might be trying something. Higher heights over AK as a ridge amplifies and more cold air in western CA. We'll see...

[Meatyorologist]

Day 10

Maybe, just maybe...

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Day 10

Maybe, just maybe...

That low looks like it wants to slide southeastward.... If so.... Yeah.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10.5 Just not enough ridge support. Close though!

[Meatyorologist]

Day 11

I'll up you by half a day, DJ. The Pacific is a *bit* too progressive so far, but still looks like a glancing blow.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Day 11

I'll up you by half a day, DJ. The Pacific is a *bit* too progressive so far, but still looks like a glancing blow.

Yup. I agree. I guess I'll have to slow down the Pacific west of ~170-160 W.

[Meatyorologist]

That is some nice cold knocking on our door! Too bad our rude parents over the Pacific didn't allow them in!

They wanted to share some of their powdered sugar, that's all!

[Meatyorologist]

Day 12

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

That is some nice cold knocking on our door! Too bad our rude parents over the Pacific didn't allow them in!

They wanted to share some of their powdered sugar, that's all!

Yeah serious potential for major cold, IF a block develops and mainly that cut-off Day 7-9 is shunted south. Hoping 6z GEFS shows improvement.

[Meatyorologist]

Day 13

[Meatyorologist]

Day 14

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Meh, onto the morning run. This one doesn't get there.

[Meatyorologist]

Day 15

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Had an abysmal 57F yesterday. Awful torch and the new norm for our climate.

[Meatyorologist]

Day 16

That wraps up the 06z OP GFS.

[Meatyorologist]

10 day precip/snowfall.

[TT-SEA]

3 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

EPS.  850's and 2m temp maps show us way above normal temp wise.  Doesn't match the pattern, which looks pretty much normal temps to me, within a few degrees.

 

I never look at the EPS for surface temps. That is not the purpose of a long range ensemble model.   Its pointless trying to determine surface temps or snow on the ground at your microclimate location with the EPS.

But 850mb temps are usually pretty good and used as a guide.... looking for strong signals either way.  

You mentioned the 00Z EPS being "way above normal" at the 850mb level... but even at the end of the run that is not true.  The EPS 850mb maps certainly have value as a general predictive tool.   

 

[Meatyorologist]

GEFS is much more south with troughing in the 7-10 day range.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

GEFS is much more south with troughing in the 7-10 day range.

I’ll believe it when I see it. And this looks like a mountain snow pattern.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS Day 8.5 (Past 4 runs) Trough deeper, higher heights over Western Alaska.

[Gradient Keeper]

Sure looks to me like we're 1 step closer to a possible warning shot or cold shot Day 8-11. Not there yet, but I do like the trend.

[Meatyorologist]

I'm out for the night. Some good promise in the LR. Onto the 12z runs!

[FroYoBro]

Everytime I see 20+ posts from late night I expect to see an arctic blast in the long range. You guys are wild. 
 

Another nice sunrise this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Everytime I see 20+ posts from late night I expect to see an arctic blast in the long range. You guys are wild. 
 

Another nice sunrise this morning. 

Same here...

[El_Nina]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Same here...

And here

[rsktkr]

8 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Life update even though Ik you guys don't care. I just applied for graduation for my bachelors and should be done in the spring. Then onto grad school!!

Good job nerd.....Ha! 

Congratulations!!

[ShawniganLake]

Wet start to the day. 

[Jesse]

Dry and mostly cloudy this morning. Low of 32 early in the night, 38 currently.

The 06z GFS looked fantastic for mountain snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like the 12z is a little better than the 06z through hour 192. 

[MossMan]

Currently dribbles and 48. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cloudy and 37

[TT-SEA]

49 here this morning.