Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Day 5 North America view (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 I don't like that trend Day 3.5 to 5 to not dig the trough quite as much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Day 6 North Pacific view (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 53 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Am I having deja vu? Seems like I saw this exact same post earlier. Yep! I posted it a few hours ago. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Day 7 North America view (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 No blocking on this run, not yet. 00z ECMWF in 1 hour 13 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 I will take lows N. of Vancouver Island for 500, Alex. Almost perfect for Juneau. Great for Skagway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Pretty boring GFS run. Standard 00z/12z stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 That Greenland block is gangsta. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: That Greenland block is gangsta. Didn't '89 have a Greenland block in place? I think I remember reading that here. And I do believe the north pole had negative anomalies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 CMC looked far better than the GFS, that's for sure. Storm-wise, at least. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Hmmm.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 25 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Didn't '89 have a Greenland block in place? I think I remember reading that here. And I do believe the north pole had negative anomalies. 1989 had a scandinavian block. didn’t have time to develop -NAO IIRC. That whole process was bizarre and unfolded at lightning speed. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 13 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: FWIW, the latest weeklies show a strong jet until roughly mid January at which point a ridge pops up and slowly retrogrades to the sweet spot. Notably chilly 850mb temp anomalies start around the 3rd week of January. Although, this model has often shown the goods in the back half the run which have so far failed to materialize. We'll see if that's still the case in the coming month. There’s your 1968/69 pattern. Gets going later than I would expect but then again evolution of IO MJO is unclear..longer it hangs back in IO the longer the NPAC pattern will take to flip. 3 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 32. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Went snow shoeing for the first time today up on Baker. Really nice day, though kinda warm (34-35 degrees). Clouds moved in on the return hike back to the car. Snow was quite crunchy, but looking forward to getting up there and doing it again. Currently 33 here. 8 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 48 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: FWIW, the latest weeklies show a strong jet until roughly mid January at which point a ridge pops up and slowly retrogrades to the sweet spot. Notably chilly 850mb temp anomalies start around the 3rd week of January. Although, this model has often shown the goods in the back half the run which have so far failed to materialize. We'll see if that's still the case in the coming month. That looks incredible! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 00z ECMWF Day 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Could be a Phun Phebruary! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Five degrees colder here than it is in Pasco. #reversecoldpool 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Pretty 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Holy crap! I was looking at the latest extended GFS ensemble control and it has an epic finish to January. It gets decent in the 15th to 20th time frame and then goes nuts. The mean is at least solid -PNA. 2 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Day 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Pretty Not every day (or probably every year) you see a 924 low in the North Pacific! 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KenfromSalem Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Not every day (or probably every year) you see a 924 low in the North Pacific! Crazy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Hmmm.... 00z GEFS after Day 10 showing signs of progressing like the new weeklies... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Not every day (or probably every year) you see a 924 low in the North Pacific! Imagine what it must be like being in the Aleutians while one of those storms is passing through. Here's the last 3 days at Adak - it gets much, much stormier than this. Note the 947mb sea level pressure on the 26th. https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/PADK.html Gorgeous island chain too - on one of the five sunny days they get per year. Actually, that's pretty close to being a literal statement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Pretty Imagine that bad boy meandering in at the Wa/Or coast with massive arctic air at the border... Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Hmmm.... 00z GEFS after Day 10 showing signs of progressing like the new weeklies... The extended GEFS unfolds very much like the Euro weeklies. By late January it has the NAO, EPO, and PNA all minus. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The extended GEFS unfolds very much like the Euro weeklies. By late January it has the NAO, EPO, and PNA all minus. I’m starting to sense a January 1996 timeframe/redux in the works. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The extended GEFS unfolds very much like the Euro weeklies. By late January it has the NAO, EPO, and PNA all minus. It's coming my friend. Finally! It will develop before late January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 00z GEFS Day 10-16. Strong zonal flow, then ridge builds just offshore as the jet dies and retracts. The ridge begins its retrogression phase. Amazing consistency with the weeklies. Classic retrogression pattern! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2020 Report Share Posted December 29, 2020 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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