December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

I'll post the 10 Day Rainfall totals, with the past 8 runs also. Same with Snowfall.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

7 Day Rainfall totals (Past 8 runs)

7 Day Snowfall totals (Past 8 runs)

[Jesse]

The models keep forgetting in the mid to long term and thinking our climate hasn’t warmed as much as it has, then it gets into the short term and they remember.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

The models keep forgetting in the mid to long term and thinking our climate hasn’t warmed as much as it has, then it gets into the short term and they remember.

Best explanation I can think of.

[Gradient Keeper]

Now hoping for some kind of improvement with the GEFS.

[Dave]

8 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Took a little hike up Spencer Butte in Eugene today. Usually there would be 6 feet of snow at the top!

 

Funny you should mention that. During the winter of 92-93 I hiked up it with a few friends after a huge snowstorm. There was about 3 feet at the top with much bigger drifts. We all dug snow caves and smoked a couple of bowls in them.

[Gradient Keeper]

ECMWF 7 Day Snow totals, past 6 runs. Same unfortunate trend.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hoping tonight's run reverses that!

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

ECMWF 7 Day Snow totals, past 6 runs. Same unfortunate trend.

I’m in the blue! 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

19 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

ECMWF 7 Day Snow totals, past 6 runs. Same unfortunate trend.

Since you are ending it on the same hour, 12Z on 1/7, you would expect it the numbers to go down, as the rain and snow over the last few days that actually happened are of course not in the models runs of the last 24 hours.  I had 5 or 6 inches of snow Tuesday night to Wednesday.  Today's runs don't show that because it already happened, but runs from a few days ago do show it.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

44 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The models keep forgetting in the mid to long term and thinking our climate hasn’t warmed as much as it has, then it gets into the short term and they remember.

Don't think my area has warmed up much. Snow totals haven't really changed much either.  And we have had a few years recently with above normal snow, and a few with below.

People have the perception that the past used to have way more snow. Some years did, but I was surprised at how many years in the past had very low snow numbers.  Some old-timers remember having winters with virtually no snow.  They also remember the year they had to truck snow from Steven's Pass for our ski jump, when the nationals were held hear and it was televised on "Wide World of Sports".

[Omegaraptor]

6250' level snow recorder at Meadows just passed 100" of accumulation.

[Gradient Keeper]

11 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I get it’s not a good trend but some of this, actually a decent portion is the snow that has been falling that will no longer show up on the models

hmmm......

[paulb/eugene]

Happy New Year to everyone...no need to add any more negatives to describe 2020.  Hoping for some serious weather action in 2021.  My weather highlight in 2020 was chasing supercells last spring  in Central Oregon, lucky I didn’t get my girlfriend’s car dented by big hail. 

here’s to 504 thickness in PDX on January 22

[Gradient Keeper]

13 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Since you are ending it on the same hour, 12Z on 1/7, you would expect it the numbers to go down, as the rain and snow over the last few days that actually happened are of course not in the models runs of the last 24 hours.  I had 5 or 6 inches of snow Tuesday night to Wednesday.  Today's runs don't show that because it already happened, but runs from a few days ago do show it.

Yep. Thanks for the explanation.

[GeorgeWx]

20 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

6250' level snow recorder at Meadows just passed 100" of accumulation.

Above average mountain snow this winter just as I predicted.

[Timmy]

4 minutes ago, GeorgeWx said:

Above average mountain snow this winter just as I predicted.

Nice job, above average snow on a nina, risky pick!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

 

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

(Past 4 runs)

[Phil]

37 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Don't think my area has warmed up much. Snow totals haven't really changed much either.  And we have had a few years recently with above normal snow, and a few with below.

People have the perception that the past used to have way more snow. Some years did, but I was surprised at how many years in the past had very low snow numbers.  Some old-timers remember having winters with virtually no snow.  They also remember the year they had to truck snow from Steven's Pass for our ski jump, when the nationals were held hear and it was televised on "Wide World of Sports".

Blockbuster snowfalls have actually increased in frequency out here on the east coast. But so have the duds.

[Meatyorologist]

"Let's be realistic here."

"The 384 hour GFS is warm. Cancel winter"

 

Sooo close to getting it, but so far.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

"Let's be realistic here."

"The 384 hour GFS is warm. Cancel winter"

 

Sooo close to getting it, but so far.

Yup. Been entertaining to watch.

Could be some epic bump trolling material if righteousness wins out.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yup. Been entertaining to watch.

Could be some epic bump trolling material if righteousness wins out.

I always forget you don’t know our climate. Feel free to bump this after some wet snow and 500’ snow levels. 
 

No one has said winter is over either. Don’t forget that.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Phil said:

Yup. Been entertaining to watch.

It's as if they haven't been avid weather watchers for more than a decade. Except...they have...

Even in 2019, with a -QBO and +ENSO, the pitchforks were raised a month later than now. Of course that only lasted a few days, but still.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

"Let's be realistic here."

"The 384 hour GFS is warm. Cancel winter"

 

Sooo close to getting it, but so far.

But when hour 384 shows something good, (and Ventrice says the models will change in a few days from now), they will say we can't believe hour 384.  That's not wrong, of course, but then you can't point to hour 384 as proof that, not only the next 16 days will have no arctic air, but neither will the next 60 days.

[Omegaraptor]

2020 was an exceptionally dry year in the SW and quite dry up to 46°N along the west coast. Wet in Tim and Mossman land.

Some areas in NorCal had their driest year on record. SFO had its second driest year behind 2013, while SAC and RDD just barely missed driest year as well. Very dry in NV, AZ, and UT as well.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I always forget you don’t know our climate. Feel free to bump this after some wet snow and 500’ snow levels. 
 

No one has said winter is over either. Don’t forget that.

You have repeatedly stated that snowfall will wait until March or April.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

You have repeatedly stated that snowfall will wait until March or April.

You are silly. 

[Gradient Keeper]

5 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

(Past 4 runs)

[The Blob]

Good morning everyone, hope I'm not late to the party. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Good morning everyone, hope I'm not late to the party. 

You got here just in time to see winter end. Happy New Year. 

[The Swamp]

The models will not suddenly show something good at hour 384.  It will likely be something inside of 5 days and all of a sudden.

Big snow storm coming the second half of January.  We are due.  It's a lock.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

(Past 4 runs)

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Don't think my area has warmed up much. Snow totals haven't really changed much either.  And we have had a few years recently with above normal snow, and a few with below.

People have the perception that the past used to have way more snow. Some years did, but I was surprised at how many years in the past had very low snow numbers.  Some old-timers remember having winters with virtually no snow.  They also remember the year they had to truck snow from Steven's Pass for our ski jump, when the nationals were held hear and it was televised on "Wide World of Sports".

The past was definitely snowier. 1968-69, 1948-49, or 1915-16 were several magnitudes snowier than anything seen in your area recently. Jet suppression was also a lot more common though... because of cold.

[GHweatherChris]

There is no amount of sugar coating anyone can do at this point to paint a good outlook in any models.