December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS... about as ugly as it gets if you want arctic air.    

 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Could be worse.

Victoria, BC went 718 days without a low below freezing from 12/23/98-12/10/00.

Some Nina magic right there!  

[bainbridgekid]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... about as ugly as it gets if you want arctic air.   

Zero sign of any meaningful Pacific Blocking through mid January. Clock is ticking.

[Deweydog]

The night shift and the day shift need to get on the same sheet of music...

[MossMan]

Fred, shut the forum down. Weather is stupid. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... about as ugly as it gets if you want arctic air.    

 

This dovetails nicely with the EURO weeklies which now show arctic air arriving around mid-May. 

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

The night shift and the day shift need to get on the same sheet of music...

Sleep deprivation can make you see things that aren't necessarily there.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Could be worse.

Victoria, BC went 718 days without a low below freezing from 12/23/98-12/10/00.

Some parts of town may have gone even longer than that, inversion-based cooling has to fight with ocean on 3 sides and frequent winds. On the hill here I haven't recorded any sub-freezing temperatures yet this winter, the coldest it got was 32.2F at the peak of the Dec 21 snowfall.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark is polishing the forks.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Took a little hike up Spencer Butte in Eugene today. Usually there would be 6 feet of snow at the top!

 

[Deweydog]

Mark Nelsen needs to be taken out to the woodshed for a good downvotin’.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Fred, shut the forum down. Weather is stupid. 

No, keep it going. I have lots of mild 50-degree rain reports to post in the next month or two.

THINK PINEAPPLES! C’MON!!

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Mark Nelsen needs to be taken out to the woodshed for a good downvotin’.

It feels weird to be thought about so much.

[Winterdog]

So far this is the worst January I've not yet seen.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

It feels weird to be thought about so much.

He’s probably used to it being on TV and all.  I met him once.  Pretty down to earth guy.

[ShawniganLake]

26 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Could be worse.

Victoria, BC went 718 days without a low below freezing from 12/23/98-12/10/00.

I think their record streak was from the 1930s. Victoria Gonzalez. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

He’s probably used to it being on TV and all.  I met him once.  Pretty down to earth guy.

Hopefully during Phil's visit to Portland one day, he doesn't get cut-off by Nelsen on the freeways in town.

[Deweydog]

16 years ago right now the forecast for tomorrow was a slight chance of rain or snow showers.  Things can change fast!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Over the past 8-10 runs the GEFS has indicated the NPAC/WPAC jet retracting with the past 3-4 developing ridging just offshore and then the pattern begins to retrogress. The jet doesn't start to retract until the 12th or so. The EPS looks like a similar progression perhaps a bit slower. Keep in mind if things follow as planned models aren't supposed to be showing any 'goodies' yet. Also, I'm pretty sure yesterday that Ventrice said models wouldn't show large scale pattern changes for North America/North Pacific for another 3-5 days(2-4 days now). The change coming is going to be abrupt perhaps popping up 'out of nowhere' from one run to the next. It's just shy of January and I find it humorous that some people are writing off Winter, especially with the SSWE, -ENSO, -QBO and how often we've scored in February recently. No need to jump off the cliff now. Patience.

00z GFS in 7 hours 2 minutes

[MossMan]

Well there is still time for an April 2008 redux...Not by much though, time is running short for that as well. 

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Acer said:

So far this is the worst January I've not yet seen.

We just gotta remember...with an ongoing SSW, the models beyond 7 days, EVEN THE EPS, are especially useless.

Doesn't mean things will turn amazing within a few days, but it does mean that there is no reason to lament "nothing good showing up in the models" right now.

[MossMan]

In fact, looking at the long range models it appears that winter of 2021/22 is finished as well. Sorry guys. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

In fact, looking at the long range models it appears that winter of 2021/22 is finished as well. Sorry guys. 

So much for the 2020s mini ice age.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

In fact, looking at the long range models it appears that winter of 2021/22 is finished as well. Sorry guys. 

You’re gonna start seeing signs of front loaded love in the weeklies soon.

[luminen]

38 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Rebuttal:

And?

Please provide evidence things will change. An SSW is great and all but it's not the slam-dunk like everyone thinks it is.

I will gladly be proven wrong but no evidence yet. And *if* things do change within a decent timeframe, chances are it will be fleeting. Sorry to break it to you.

[SouthHillFrosty]

11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Over the past 8-10 runs the GEFS has indicated the NPAC/WPAC jet retracting with the past 3-4 developing ridging just offshore and then the pattern begins to retrogress. The jet doesn't start to retract until the 12th or so. The EPS looks like a similar progression perhaps a bit slower. Keep in mind if things follow as planned models aren't supposed to be showing any 'goodies' yet. Also, I'm pretty sure yesterday that Ventrice said models wouldn't show large scale pattern changes for North America/North Pacific for another 3-5 days(2-4 days now). The change coming is going to be abrupt perhaps popping up 'out of nowhere' from one run to the next. It's just shy of January and I find it humorous that some people are writing off Winter, especially with the SSWE, -ENSO, -QBO and how often we've scored in February recently. No need to jump off the cliff now. Patience.

00z GFS in 7 hours 2 minutes

Rob trying to convince me winter isn't over yet but I already started mowing the lawn

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Rob trying to convince me winter isn't over yet but I already started mowing the lawn

LOL Pure comedy gold.

[Gradient Keeper]

The 12z CMCE Day 10-16 shows the same progression as the GEFS. To see the same signal at the same time certainly isn't nothing and is reflecting on the SSWE causing the coming large scale pattern changes. I wish it were within Day 5-7 though, but no such luck on that. ... AND we wait.

[Gradient Keeper]

I would think the next several days we aren't going to see anything too interesting on any OP runs and we will have to rely solely on Ensembles picking up on trends. I think we're seeing that now.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[Kayla]

You guys...so dramatic every single year.

Weeklies still say that the back half of January into Feb is still on.

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

The 12z CMCE Day 10-16 shows the same progression as the GEFS. To see the same signal at the same time certainly isn't nothing and is reflecting on the SSWE causing the coming large scale pattern changes. I wish it were within Day 5-7 though, but no such luck on that. ... AND we wait.

Looks to me to be about as strong an Aleutian Low signal as you’ll ever see from start to finish.  But like flatiron said, someone is probably gonna turn the blender on with regard to model solutions in the somewhat near future.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Pretty dang good. I just hate having to wait and wait and wait. BUT we all know one week of arctic cold and snow makes us quickly forget about the muck we had to endure before that point.

[Jesse]

Just now, Kayla said:

You guys...so dramatic every single year.

Weeklies still say that the back half of January into Feb is still on.

This is all well and good, and I agree it's far from over. But wasn't there a tagged post at the top of this thread from about a month ago saying that it would be on in mid-December? I think that sort of stuff is what leaves people feeling like the long range models are stringing us along.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

You guys...so dramatic every single year.

Weeklies still say that the back half of January into Feb is still on.

That looks pretty dang good! It's coming! Thanks

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

This is all well and good, and I agree it's far from over. But wasn't there a tagged post at the top of this thread from about a month ago saying that it would be on in mid-December? I think that sort of stuff is what leaves people feeling like the long range models are stringing us along.

Q: How do you keep a weather weenie in suspense?

A: Models are hinting at a pattern change in about two weeks.

[MossMan]

Jesse is not on board! 

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

You guys...so dramatic every single year.

Weeklies still say that the back half of January into Feb is still on.

 

It has been consistent.... in showing that pattern 30-40 days out.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

This is all well and good, and I agree it's far from over. But wasn't there a tagged post at the top of this thread from about a month ago saying that it would be on in mid-December? I think that sort of stuff is what leaves people feeling like the long range models are stringing us along.

I see your point, but that wasn't during an SSWE in progress with PV split about to occur.

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 49 minutes

[Kayla]

9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

This is all well and good, and I agree it's far from over. But wasn't there a tagged post at the top of this thread from about a month ago saying that it would be on in mid-December? I think that sort of stuff is what leaves people feeling like the long range models are stringing us along.

To be fair that was the untested extended GEFS. With that said, it actually did okay with the overall pattern for mid December at 30 days out. Euro weeklies have proven to be the most accurate model we have and it has been showing more meridional flow as we head into the last third of Jan for a while now.