December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[umadbro]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Almost the entire Eurasian continent is colder than average by D9.

How’s that, Justin?

Doesn't look like anything other than progressive flow, lowland rain and mountain snow

 

[AbbyJr]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah, very much so was out of context. Abby is right, for many it has become a cult and type of PC religion. It's dumb. The people who blindly follow along are equally dumb.

I appreciate the kind response. 

 

[AbbyJr]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

That's taken a bit out of context. She was saying the religious aspects to it are nonsense.

I appreciate the kind response. 

Assuming you were referring to my post, I should mention that I'm a guy. Not sure if the "She" was just a typing mistake or not. Either way, I'm not offended or anything. Just wanted to point that out. 

[AbbyJr]

52 minutes ago, luminen said:

It's the same reason why so many intelligent people believe ludicrous ideas.

 

But do you agree with what I had said? Just curious. 

[luminen]

3 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I appreciate the kind response. 

Assuming you were referring to my post, I should mention that I'm a guy. Not sure if the "She" was just a typing mistake or not. Either way, I'm not offended or anything. Just wanted to point that out. 

Are you sure you're not a she? 

[seattleweatherguy]

Just now, luminen said:

Are you sure you're not a she? 

 

Just now, luminen said:

Are you sure you're not a she? 

dont take the risk or we are in "trouble" 

[Gradient Keeper]

? I'm more confused than a retarded virgin in a ** house.

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

? I'm more confused than a retarded virgin in a ** house.

This is what December torching and lack of snow does to us.

C'MON SSW!

[Phil]

Here comes the EPO.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

15 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Doesn't look like anything other than progressive flow, lowland rain and mountain snow

 

He was talking about Eurasia.  Point being the SSW is doing its thing.  Predictions for colder NW are not until mid January, and this pattern is following the script.  Ventrice said models won't pick up on the North America changes for another 3 to 5 days.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

He was talking about Eurasia.  Point being the SSW is doing its thing.  Predictions for colder NW are not until mid January, and this pattern is following the script.  Ventrice said models won't pick up on the North America changes for another 3 to 5 days.

-EPO developing towards the end of this run.

Though I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t jealous of those Russians right now. Epic stuff for them.

[Deweydog]

Uh oh...

[BLI snowman]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Holy cow almost the entire Eurasian continent is colder than average by D9.

How ‘bout them apples@BLI snowman?

 

The 516 thickness line even almost makes a token North American appearance on this run!

 

[AbbyJr]

11 minutes ago, luminen said:

Are you sure you're not a she? 

Seriously, can we be respectful on here? Perhaps I'm just overly sensitive but I feel this comment was unnecessary.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah. Let's get back to the Weather.

 

[Phil]

NPAC follows suit in the clown range. -NAO/-PNA/-EPO trifecta.

[Phil]

There it is.

[AbbyJr]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

NPAC follows suit in the clown range. -NAO/-PNA/-EPO trifecta.

The temperature anomolies are not very cold for the PNW though. I assume the 500mb pattern is good but the arctic air has not come down south yet? (Based on the time of the run)

[PV=nRT]

10 hours ago, Cloud said:

 

What's actually quite incredible it's something I've been keeping tabs on for a while is in Seoul right now. The region has been in the 20s to mid 30s for day time highs and lows in the teens to single digits for good month to month and a half now. Very little snow, just frigid sunny weather and crazy consistent. It seems like it's going to get colder next week. 

I know it gets cold there in Seoul, but I don't think it's normal for them to be this consistently cold. 

Think Korean War, Chosin Reservoir, December 1950.  Our armed forces were in conflict with North  Korean forces and eventually the Chinese when they came across the border.  Weather was exceedingly cold, in the area of -20F.  It was so cold that some seriously wounded men were saved because their wounds froze up and kept them from bleeding out.

A good read on this, if you are interested, "The Last Stand of Fox Company" by Bob Drury. 

I can only make an assumption the synoptic situation present in 1950 over China and North Korea is similar to the current synoptic situation.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

The temperature anomolies are not very cold for the PNW though. I assume the 500mb pattern is good but the arctic air has not come down south yet? (Based on the time of the run)

Yeah, but the cold is building quickly in western Canada.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

There it is.

You know it’s been a winter from the depths of hell when this 384 hour image is considered “it.”

[Timmy Supercell]

3/4" out there. Snow is letting up and its mostly a foggy mist now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow 2500’ snow levels at hour 384! Score!

[TT-SEA]

Just noticed that the 18Z ECMWF actually shows some lowland snow on Sunday morning... like in 84 hours and not 384 hours.

 

[Omegaraptor]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow 2500’ snow levels at hour 384! Score!

987mb low in the North Bay Area!!

[Phil]

Japan raking it in.
 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Total PV split on the GFS!

[bainbridgekid]

This would be a perfect low track for lowland snow if there were any cold air to work with whatsoever.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Winterdog]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF Day 1

I'm amazed at your stamina.  I would have tired of posting these maps three weeks ago.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, Acer said:

I'm amazed at your stamina.  I would have tired of posting these maps three weeks ago.

I'm kind of like Mr. Hankey. I only show up on the Forum around Christmas time, minus singing improvised Christmas Carols, or living in a sewer. It's an obsession more than anything. I think.

[bainbridgekid]

If I didn't know better, I'd think this was from October. Perfect track for snow and no cold air anywhere near us.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Winterdog]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I'm kind of like Mr. Hankey. I only show up on the Forum around Christmas time, minus singing improvised Christmas Carols, or living in a sewer. It's an obsession more than anything. I think.

Obsession is a prerequisite for hanging around this forum.  Thanks for all your effort.

[GHweatherChris]

Next 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Acer said:

Obsession is a prerequisite for hanging around this forum.  Thanks for all your effort.

You may be right about that. Appreciate that.

[Phil]

Not sure if anyone linked this but for those seeking Dr. Ventrice’s video here it is.

For those seeking instant gratification, start watching at ~ 34 minutes in. I really do like his analysis here including the EOFs to differentiate wave structures and their long term evolution.

FWIW his projection for PNW ~ 40mins in fits very well w/ the timeline we’ve all discussed.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4