December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

If you only look at unreliable computer models, sure.  But there are a lot of experts who know a hell of a lot more than we do that are all saying the jet will slow down.  Doesn't mean we will get the cold, but someone will.

So NWS Medford would be wishcasting right now on this group 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Actually last nights EPS showed signs of the Jet in the Pacific slowing down in the long range.  Since I am not used to looking at the jet in the EPS, maybe that is normal, due to less of a strong signal in the really long range, but it looked like a slowdown.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

So NWS Medford would be wishcasting right now on this group 

That is an 8 day forecast.  He was talking about 4 weeks.  Nobody thinks any arctic air would arrive here or anywhere until mid January.

Actually I do like that forecast though.  Lots of wet weather and relatively low snow levels.  Perfect for me.  Thanks for sharing.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

That is an 8 day forecast.  He was talking about 4 weeks.  Nobody thinks any arctic air would arrive here or anywhere until mid January.

Actually I do like that forecast though.  Lots of wet weather and relatively low snow levels.  Perfect for me.  Thanks for sharing.

I know, having a bit 'o fun.

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Would be great. To bad there is 0 evidence of that happening anytime in the next 4 weeks. 

As Justin said, we need to let this play out a little bit. Anything beyond day 7 now is next to meaningless.

Personally, I'm encouraged by the increasing trend towards big-time high latitude blocking and more cold making it into the mid latitudes. 

[luminen]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

As Justin said, we need to let this play out a little bit. Anything beyond day 7 now is next to meaningless.

Personally, I'm encouraged by the increasing trend towards big-time high latitude blocking and more cold making it into the mid latitudes. 

Face it, winter is done. We will be dealing with thicknesses between 538 and 545 until July.

[AbbyJr]

12 hours ago, Phil said:

Maybe he’s referring to the period straight ahead where the SSW is still ongoing but the Pacific jet is screaming? Makes more sense to me.

I wouldn’t expect direct effects from the SSW in the West until the MJO is triggered and leaves the IO, which is still 2-3 weeks away. Took about 3 weeks in 2019 too.

When do you think the models will start to pick up on the post SSW pattern?

 

 

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Actually last nights EPS showed signs of the Jet in the Pacific slowing down in the long range.  Since I am not used to looking at the jet in the EPS, maybe that is normal, due to less of a strong signal in the really long range, but it looked like a slowdown.

That’s a complete inevitability.  It’s pretty rare for a pattern like the one advertised in the mid range to persist more than 7-10 days.  I suspect it has the right idea that ridging/higher heights will return as we head toward mid month after which ACTUAL retrogression smells like a good possibility.

[AlTahoe]

50 minutes ago, Phil said:

Enjoy your zonal flow while it lasts. Soon it’ll be replaced by cold, continental flow.

So serious question. Wouldn't the Polar vortex lobe depicted to be over Eastern Asia/Korea next week cause a amped up East Asian Jet stream. I feel like record cold meeting up with above normal SST's in the kuroshio current would get the EAJ screaming. So we would have the current EAJ extension through next week. Then maybe a 3-5 relaxing of it before it comes screaming back in? 

[The Blob]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Everyone should at least be getting good sleep. Especially if Santa brought you a My Pillow.

Still awake unfortunately and amazon is all about the foamily pillows.

[MossMan]

One year ago today on the forum...Tim and I were in an apparent “cat fight” over warm front drizzle, DomeCulver was banned...Again, our hopes of a first week of January 700’ snow level was dashed, I had half of the monthly rain that I have had this December, and Ranger/Mattdog were closely eyeballing a post MLK Day as a possible great timeframe...They were correct (for Snohomish Co north hehe) 

will they be correct again? I sure hope so! 
Oh and Andrews negativity hasn’t wavered at all from last year. 

[Blizzard777]

Nice blustery day down at Westport...via webcam storm watching. Some nice rollers coming in now. Meanwhile in Federal Way skies are breaking and some blue showing through.  43*

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Listening to Ventrice, doubling down on prediction that the jet stream will relax, Western Canada will get cold, eventually leading to cold not only over the eastern US, but also the Pacific Northwest.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Ventrice thinks the models will start to change in the next 3-5 days.  He said the weeklies from a few days ago "saw" the SSW event, and completely flipped the pattern at about week 4.  

He thinks the models will see a split in the PV.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

One year ago today on the forum...Tim and I were in an apparent “cat fight” over warm front drizzle, DomeCulver was banned...Again, our hopes of a first week of January 700’ snow level was dashed, I had half of the monthly rain that I have had this December, and Ranger/Mattdog were closely eyeballing a post MLK Day as a possible great timeframe...They were correct (for Snohomish Co north hehe) 

will they be correct again? I sure hope so! 
Oh and Andrews negativity hasn’t wavered at all from last year. 

I prefer the term realism to negative. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS...

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Ventrice says the huge Aleutian trough is what is causing the SSW event.  Says Western Canada will get cold, as well as Europe.  Someone asked him about the PNW, and he again said yes.  2nd half of January.  SE ridging will occur.   

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, Timmy said:

Not what you wanna see mid winter

 

The 12Z EPS is not that different...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

The 12Z EPS is not that different...

 

Looks a lot more zonal, but yeah. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For the record, I’m going with about 5-7 days of west coast ridging between January 10-20th, followed by a return to zonal flow. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

For the record, I’m going with about 5-7 days of west coast ridging between January 10-20th, followed by a return to zonal flow. 

All bets are final

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

For the record, I’m going with about 5-7 days of west coast ridging between January 10-20th, followed by a return to zonal flow. 

Ventrice says it will be North Pacific/Alaska rigging. Will last awhile. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Ventrice says it will be North Pacific/Alaska rigging. Will last awhile. 

That would be nice! 

[AbbyJr]

18 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Ventrice says it will be North Pacific/Alaska rigging. Will last awhile. 

Can you post a link to his tweet about that?

[Timmy Supercell]

7 minutes ago, iFred said:

Some east coast snow weenie with 14k followers and personal branding says that the ridging will be irrelevant and most of the cold will strike Boston. This is expected to last through May.

Like your profile pic lol 

[OysterPrintout]

9 minutes ago, iFred said:

Some east coast snow weenie with 14k followers and personal branding says that the ridging will be irrelevant and most of the cold will strike Boston. This is expected to last through May.

Andrew has 14k followers? 

[Deweydog]

This winter now falls squarely on Michael Ventrice’s shoulders.  I wonder if he knows?

[The Blob]

6 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Like your profile pic lol 

Thank you!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

46F with decent rainfall but not much wind like some elevated spots. Just a typical rainy day over here. Most significant weather memories I have are still from the Labor Day firestorm. Absolutely nothing of interest down here since.

[MossMan]

Currently cloudy and 42.

.35” on the day now. 

[Phil]

50 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

For the record, I’m going with about 5-7 days of west coast ridging between January 10-20th, followed by a return to zonal flow. 

So you don’t think there’ll be a coherent MJO response to SSW coming out of the Indian Ocean?

Otherwise what is there to reproduce this jet extension other than +EAMT w/ convection west of IPWP in IO? If I had to wager, I’d say the remainder of winter from 2nd half of January onwards will be anything but zonal.

[BLI snowman]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Too bad the last 18 months of hott global temps have rendered our winter climate incapable of such feats.

Yeah, this winter is turning into a real doozy! Good point!!

[Timmy]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

So you don’t think there’ll be a coherent MJO response to SSW coming out of the Indian Ocean?

Otherwise what is there to reproduce this jet extension other than +EAMT w/ convection west of IPWP in IO? If I had to wager, I’d say the remainder of winter from 2nd half of January onwards will be anything but zonal.

Andrew was using his own weenie model

[Kolk1604]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

This winter now falls squarely on Michael Ventrice’s shoulders.  I wonder if he knows?

Should we send him the link for this thread?

[MossMan]

January 2012 was pretty darn good, however so far this movie has featured a lot of blowtorching and fireballs...Andrew and Justin must have been the directors. 

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, this winter is turning into a real doozy! Good point!!

The point was that the models seem to think the mid latitudes can still get pretty d*amn cold, despite your warm global temps. And it has been pretty cold in northern China and Korea already.

But it's 12/30 and it hasn't gotten cold yet in the PNW, so clearly no reason for optimism.

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

January 2012 was pretty darn good, however so far this movie has featured a lot of blowtorching and fireballs...Andrew and Justin must have been the directors. 

Wow, forgot how long that movie is.

[Front Ranger]

26 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

This winter now falls squarely on Michael Ventrice’s shoulders.  I wonder if he knows?

Joe Bastardi could do squats with 4 winters on his shoulders.

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, this winter is turning into a real doozy! Good point!!

The complete absence of the Canadian Archipelago cold pool is something to behold. Of course it’s technically a positive development, given its evacuation has almost always been a harbinger of significant, and prolonged, NH winter blocking.

But it’s still weird to see, especially considering that region was the icebox of the NH for 5 years while everyone else torched. A very frustrating pattern that I don’t wish to re-live anytime soon.

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

On this day in 1964 it snowed 2-3" here. I was in Texas at the Sun Bowl at the time, but late Dec 2003 also had action. Too bad EUG didn't keep snowfall records from 1997-2012...