December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Yup.  Someone asked Judah Cohen if the SSW could affect the PNW and he said the PNW is only affected by the Pacific Ocean. 

Did really say that? As if SSW events don’t affect the Pacific?

Groan.

[OysterPrintout]

5 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

To be honest, that statement is laughable. I'm not saying he's not an expert in his field, but rather that its quite strange to suggest that the Pacific Ocean is the only factor in our climate and weather patterns.

Does he not realize that February 1989 and February 2019 likely would have played out completely different in the PNW absent of a SSW event? I'm sure there are other examples too.

Fact is that there are  so many different factors. There have of course been SSW's that have not led to a PNW arctic blast but those were likely during +ENSO years and or without a favourable QBO state.

Judah is obviously super smart but he's an east coast Boston guy who likes east coast snow. I don't think he really bothers himself getting into the nitty gritty details of PNW SSW effects which are sort of a mixed bag.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Did really say that? Groan.

In a rather obtuse way he is right.  If the Pacific is not shut down the point is rendered pretty much moot.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

In a rather obtuse way he is right.  If the Pacific is not shut down the point is rendered pretty much moot.

As if SSW events don’t affect the Pacific? It’s just like saying the East is only affected by the Atlantic. It simply isn’t true.

In reality both domains are affected by SSW because it’s actually a quasi-global phenomenon. As a matter of fact, the 2019 SSW shifted the Pacific significantly, in a while barely touching the Atlantic.

[AbbyJr]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Did really say that? As if SSW events don’t affect the Pacific?

Groan.

I have to wonder the same thing. Especially given the following tweet he put out, which does mention western cold during a PV disruption.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

As if SSW events don’t affect the Pacific? It’s just like saying the East is only affected by the Atlantic. Because it’s demonstrably false.

In reality both are affected by SSW. In fact, the 2019 SSW shifted the Pacific significantly, while barely touching the Atlantic.

I guess it would just come down to understanding the context of that statement.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

14 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

To be honest, that statement is laughable. I'm not saying he's not an expert in his field, but rather that its quite strange to suggest that the Pacific Ocean is the only factor in our climate and weather patterns.

Does he not realize that February 1989 and February 2019 likely would have played out completely different in the PNW absent of a SSW event? I'm sure there are other examples too.

Fact is that there are  so many different factors. There have of course been SSW's that have not led to a PNW arctic blast but those were likely during +ENSO years and or without a favourable QBO state.

But wait, are we sure he actually said that? Looking at this tweet, he does mention Western cold from a SSW.

 

 

He did say that today.  True, he did not say that the PNW would not get the cold air, but the implication was that the SSW would not affect us.  Maybe not what he meant, not sure.   And maybe in the post you show when he says "western North America" he means the Rockies.  

[MossMan]

Up to .42” so far on the day...Which was a dry day until 5pm. 

[Phil]

Just now, Deweydog said:

I guess it would just come down to understanding the context of that statement.

I hope so, lol. The dude has a PHD and studies SSW events..I have to believe there was a miscommunication somewhere.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

So I decided that it would be better to post exactly what he said and not my interpretation of what he said.

 

Aaron Alhadeff

 

@AaronSafewave

·

15h

 

Replying to

@judah47

Any impact on the Pacific Northwest?

 

 

Judah Cohen

@judah47

15h

What is going on in the Pacific is a much bigger factor for the PNW.

[Deweydog]

I say we leave a flaming bag of poo on Judah’s front porch.  Who’s in?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 Heck of a trough!

[Phil]

There’s literature on SSWEs everywhere, documenting the wide ranging effects. Tropical convection/MJO, AAM transfer, RWB trains/mobile polar highs (stuff expressed via EOFs for PNA, EPO, NAO, etc.)

All of that stuff affects the PNW region, and all of it is altered by SSW events. To argue it only affects the east defies logic.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 Dynamic trough. Wind storm already showing just inside Day 6. Could be another following it.

 

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So I decided that it would be better to post exactly what he said and not my interpretation of what he said.

 

Aaron Alhadeff

 

@AaronSafewave

·

15h

 

Replying to

@judah47

Any impact on the Pacific Northwest?

 

 

Judah Cohen

@judah47

15h

What is going on in the Pacific is a much bigger factor for the PNW.

Maybe he’s referring to the period straight ahead where the SSW is still ongoing but the Pacific jet is screaming? Makes more sense to me.

I wouldn’t expect direct effects from the SSW in the West until the MJO is triggered and leaves the IO, which is still 2-3 weeks away. Took about 3 weeks in 2019 too.

[Gradient Keeper]

Through Day 6 this run was already 5 times better than the GFS.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Maybe he’s referring to the period straight ahead where the SSW is still ongoing but the Pacific jet is screaming? Makes more sense to me.

I wouldn’t expect direct effects from the SSW in the West until the MJO is triggered and leaves the IO, which is still 2-3 weeks away. Took about 3 weeks in 2019 too.

Could be, he did mention the Pacific Jet would relax eventually.  I wish the person who tweeted him had followed up.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Aleutian ridge building? Hmmm....

 

[Phil]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Could be, he did mention the Pacific Jet would relax eventually.  I wish the person who tweeted him had followed up.

Well..if it doesn’t relax Tim will be in an insane asylum by Memorial Day weekend.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

ECMWF has a 980 low plowing through the Olympic Peninsula.  70+ MPH coast, 50's in Puget Sound.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Kamchatka bomb! Here we go!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[SouthHillFrosty]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8 Aleutian ridge building? Hmmm....

 

Honestly like both views because you get different perspectives!

[Phil]

That’s a lot of blocking.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

Huge snows for Sierras, Trinity Alps, Siskiyous

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Pacific isn’t going to shut down til April.

[Phil]

 

[Requiem]

Fun EURO run with a couple strong lows for W. Washington/Oregon.

[Winterdog]

All of this commotion still gets us basically nowhere in the cold department.  Maybe some wind, a lot of southwesterly flow and near normal temps.  850’s never drop below -3 the way it looks. All our marbles are rolling with a SSW that might do us wonders if the Pacific would calm down near the end of January.  Excuse me if I doze off.

[AbbyJr]

52 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So I decided that it would be better to post exactly what he said and not my interpretation of what he said.

 

Aaron Alhadeff

 

@AaronSafewave

·

15h

 

Replying to

@judah47

Any impact on the Pacific Northwest?

 

 

Judah Cohen

@judah47

15h

What is going on in the Pacific is a much bigger factor for the PNW.

To be fair, he did not say the Pacific is the only factor but rather that its a much bigger factor for the PNW than a SSW. That said, I agree with Phil though that it makes no sense to suggest a SSW does not affect what goes on in the Pacific. Assuming the SSW does in fact affect the Pacific, then it can only be said that the SSW does affect the PNW even if the main influence is the Pacific ocean.

[Deweydog]

Acer is offboard again.

[ShawniganLake]

35F with some splat positive precip falling tonight. 🌧  

[Deweydog]

15 minutes ago, Acer said:

All of this commotion still gets us basically nowhere in the cold department.  Maybe some wind, a lot of southwesterly flow and near normal temps.  850’s never drop below -3 the way it looks. All our marbles are rolling with a SSW that might do us wonders if the Pacific would calm down near the end of January.  Excuse me if I doze off.

 

15 minutes ago, Acer said:

All of this commotion still gets us basically nowhere in the cold department.  Maybe some wind, a lot of southwesterly flow and near normal temps.  850’s never drop below -3 the way it looks. All our marbles are rolling with a SSW that might do us wonders if the Pacific would calm down near the end of January.  Excuse me if I doze off.

You may as well sleep until the 20th.  Both for weather reasons and for the sake of watching the inauguration which should be good television.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS 10mb through Day 12 shows the current ongoing SSWE which fades but warming remains. After Day 9 another burst is seen.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Init.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 1

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 2

(Past 4 runs)