December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Not what you wanna see mid winter

Half the forum will say this is somehow a "great" sign. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

It ain't even the first day of 2021. Don't give in

I said January 5th. Something about in time for Jesse's birthday, etc...et..., so on and so forth. 

[Winterdog]

16 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Not what you wanna see mid winter

At least the east coast is looking like crap too.

[Winterdog]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Half the forum will say this is somehow a "great" sign. 

The pacific is showing no signs of slowing down through mid January at all.  At least our air is clean.

[BLI snowman]

18 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Not what you wanna see mid winter

 

Couldn't draw it up much worse if you tried. 

 

[jakerepp]

At very least the mountains are getting nuked. Gonna be some good snow-playing conditions, whatever your preferred activity is

Looking forward to taking the snowmobiles out.

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I said January 5th. Something about in time for Jesse's birthday, etc...et..., so on and so forth. 

Given the expectation that the SSW will ultimately shake things up and likely interfere with the models' long range accuracy even more than usual, I think we have about 10 days to go before we want to really raise all the alarm bells. The event in the stratosphere is now underway, so any ostensible impact from that for us should at least start to rear its head by then on some of the models.

In any event, the track record for winters that deliver absolutely zero in the way of meaningful arctic air through mid January is not great. As was covered in 2018-19. We defied the odds big time that winter, so maybe we'll capture lightning in a bottle again.

[SouthHillFrosty]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Half the forum will say this is somehow a "great" sign. 

This is a great sign and has great potential

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Given the expectation that the SSW will ultimately shake things up and likely interfere with the models' long range accuracy even more than usual, I think we have about 10 days to go before we want to really raise all the alarm bells. The event in the stratosphere is now underway, so any ostensible impact from that for us should at least start to rear its head by then.

In any event, the track record for winters that deliver absolutely zero in the way of meaningful arctic air through mid January is not great. As was covered in 2018-19. We defied the odds big time that winter, so maybe we'll capture lightning in a bottle again.

Ok, we are on the clock

[Deweydog]

Everyone should at least be getting good sleep. Especially if Santa brought you a My Pillow.

[TacomaWaWx]

0.65” so far this morning back at home. Over 6.5” on the month now as well. 

[Fircrest]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Everyone should at least be getting good sleep. Especially if Santa brought you a My Pillow.

We tried those and sent them back.  Not for everyone....

[Fircrest]

56 minutes ago, Acer said:

Sleepy Joe and I have a lot in common.  Arctic fronts make the hairs on my legs stand straight up.  I’ll post a video after we get clobbered.

Are you a friend of Corn Pop?

[Blizzard777]

Chaos theory is an interdisciplinary theory stating that, within the apparent randomness of chaotic complex systems, there are underlying patterns, interconnectedness, constant feedback loops, repetition, self-similarity, fractals, and self-organization.

50 minutes ago, Timmy said:

The gfs has no idea what to do in the LR.  Last 4 runs.

Conclusion: Theirs something BIG out there! 

[paulb/eugene]

Quote

 

1094mb high over Mongolia...could make diamonds from Kingsford charcoal briquettes over there.  They need to share that stuff with us

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You know. We have a little battle brewing here. Me vs. Phil. Phil says arctic blast is imminent mid-month. I say no way buster!

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, 12z GFS went apeshit with that Eurasian chunk of the PV. -31c 850mb temps over Beijing next week seems like it would be historic from what I know of their climate...

[Blizzard777]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You know. We have a little battle brewing here. Me vs. Phil. Phil says arctic blast is imminent mid-month. I say no way buster!

Boooooooo, I always have hope even when models show nothing!!! 

[bainbridgekid]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, 12z GFS went apeshit with that Eurasian chunk of the PV. -31c 850mb temps over Beijing next week seems like it would be historic from what I know of their climate...

480 thicknesses in North Korea is beyond insane. Kim Jong Un's gonna freeze his buns off.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You know. We have a little battle brewing here. Me vs. Phil. Phil says arctic blast is imminent mid-month. I say no way buster!

I was honestly thinking this would be the winter where we got something earlier on. Now I’m thinking it’ll be February. 

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, 12z GFS went apeshit with that Eurasian chunk of the PV. -31c 850mb temps over Beijing next week seems like it would be historic from what I know of their climate...

Too bad the last 18 months of hott global temps have rendered our winter climate incapable of such feats.

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

480 thicknesses in North Korea is beyond insane. Kim Jong Un's gonna freeze his buns off.

 

He doesn’t have buns and he doesn’t poo

[TheNewCulverJosh]

A tropical 43 degrees here.  Feels warm considering I haven't seen 30 degrees for a few days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

39 with moderate rain falling. Feels like winter!

[Cloud]

12 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

480 thicknesses in North Korea is beyond insane. Kim Jong Un's gonna freeze his buns off.

 

 

What's actually quite incredible it's something I've been keeping tabs on for a while is in Seoul right now. The region has been in the 20s to mid 30s for day time highs and lows in the teens to single digits for good month to month and a half now. Very little snow, just frigid sunny weather and crazy consistent. It seems like it's going to get colder next week. 

I know it gets cold there in Seoul, but I don't think it's normal for them to be this consistently cold. 

[Dave]

Getting some crazy wind gusts. I'd estimate over 40 mph. A few tree limbs have not survived.

[Deweydog]

Heavy rain!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, Cloud said:

 

What's actually quite incredible it's something I've been keeping tabs on for a while is in Seoul right now. The region has been in the 20s to mid 30s for day time highs and lows in the teens to single digits for good month to month and a half now. Very little snow, just frigid sunny weather and crazy consistent. It seems like it's going to get colder next week. 

I know it gets cold there in Seoul, but I don't think it's normal for them to be this consistently cold. 

I guess it is typically cold and dry in the winter on the Korean Peninsula. You may recall the last winter games were there, it is my understanding most of the snow for skiing is artificially generated. 

[bainbridgekid]

16 minutes ago, Cloud said:

 

What's actually quite incredible it's something I've been keeping tabs on for a while is in Seoul right now. The region has been in the 20s to mid 30s for day time highs and lows in the teens to single digits for good month to month and a half now. Very little snow, just frigid sunny weather and crazy consistent. It seems like it's going to get colder next week. 

I know it gets cold there in Seoul, but I don't think it's normal for them to be this consistently cold. 

Looks like their average high/low in January is 35/21. Looked for a city in the US to compare that to and it's identical to Indianapolis.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Looks like their average high/low in January is 35/21. Looked for a city in the US to compare that to and it's identical to Indianapolis.

TWL will be moving there shortly. 

[Timmy Supercell]

59 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Everyone should at least be getting good sleep. Especially if Santa brought you a My Pillow.

A bottle of Jack is also a good sleep aid. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Half the forum will say this is somehow a "great" sign. 

Enjoy your zonal flow while it lasts. Soon it’ll be replaced by cold, continental flow.

[OysterPrintout]

GFS is still wildly different on basically every single run as to how it handles the SSW and splitting the PV

[Blizzard777]

2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

A bottle of Jack is also a good sleep aid. 

That would only make my bed spin and throw me to the floor 

 

42* with light rain currently 

.75 for the day 

 

 

[Phil]

47 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, 12z GFS went apeshit with that Eurasian chunk of the PV. -31c 850mb temps over Beijing next week seems like it would be historic from what I know of their climate...

Yeah that’s roughly as frequent as widespread sub -40C 850mb temps in the Midwest. Which would go beyond even the 1980s cold outbreaks.

IE: Basically never happens. 

[Deweydog]

You know things are slow when Korean weather becomes a hot topic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Enjoy your zonal flow while it lasts. Soon it’ll be replaced by cold, continental flow.

Would be great. To bad there is 0 evidence of that happening anytime in the next 4 weeks. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Would be great. To bad there is 0 evidence of that happening anytime in the next 4 weeks. 

If you only look at unreliable computer models, sure.  But there are a lot of experts who know a hell of a lot more than we do that are all saying the jet will slow down.  Doesn't mean we will get the cold, but someone will.

[Phil]

 

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Would be great. To bad there is 0 evidence of that happening anytime in the next 4 weeks. 

BeCuZ tHe CeeEffEss sAyS sO?

[Front Ranger]

23 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Looks like their average high/low in January is 35/21. Looked for a city in the US to compare that to and it's identical to Indianapolis.

It's currently 10 there. And for December, they average 40/26. Definitely been colder than normal there.

Seoul's all-time January low temp is -9F, so they definitely don't get as cold as most the Midwest.