December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Holy cow, EUG is going to get a warmer and drier than normal month! This is good because there has been a real dearth of that lately...

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 3

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 4

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 5

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 6

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 7

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 8

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 9

[Meatyorologist]

Powerful windstorm for Oregon in the fantasy range.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 10

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS 10 Day Precip/Snowfall

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 11

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 12

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFs Day 13

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 14

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 15

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 16

[The Swamp]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z GFS Day 16

I said this yesterday about day 15 but it looks like the Pacific is about to shut down.  We are due.  It's a lock.

Snow the second half of January from Bellingham to the Redwood Forests.  Mark it down.

[TT-SEA]

6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS has the same idea as the GFS and GEFS except it's just a little bit slower.  Brief ridge sets up over us as above normal heights bridge between the mid and high latitudes and then the Pacific Jet retracts quickly.  This all dovetails with what the ECMWF weeklies showed a couple of days ago and what the extended GFS ensemble has been showing.  Intriguingly the 0z EPS speeds up the process as compared to the 12z.  Looks promising.  

I understand that things can change and pop up on short notice... but there is just no way to say the 00Z EPS looked promising.    At the end of the run it shows a deep GOA trough and a trough in the SE.   That is the complete opposite of what you say is important for cold here.

If these maps was exactly the opposite you would also say its promising and that would be accurate.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

While we wait for the 12z GFS.

 

The 6z GEFS Day 10-16 sped up the progression a notch with the NPAC, WPAC jet retracting and ridge developing offshore as it begins to retrograde. This is exactly inline with the GFS Extended Ensembles and other guidance. As we move through week 2 into week 3 the ridge should continue backing further into the Gulf of Alaska. Promising!

 

[paulb/eugene]

4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Powerful windstorm for Oregon in the fantasy range.

[paulb/eugene]

1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

Not even reliable inside of 24 hours.  The 10m gust forecasts have verified poorly

[MossMan]

Currently raining and 43 degrees. 
.43” so far on the day. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Currently showery and 41˚F, but if you live in the lowlands west of the Cascades, the meme I just posted is your New Year’s Day forecast.

[Winterdog]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I understand that things can change and pop up on short notice... but there is just no way to say the 00Z EPS looked promising.    At the end of the run it shows a deep GOA trough and a trough in the SE.   That is the complete opposite of what you say is important for cold here.

If these maps was exactly the opposite you would also say its promising and that would be accurate.

 

Ahhhh, the sound of informed reason without bias.  Refreshing indeed!

[BLI snowman]

Nothing says winter like a 50 degree morning!

And the EPS looks great Tim!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Nothing says winter like a 50 degree morning!

And the EPS looks great Tim!!

This dovetails nicely with the CFS weeklies. 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This dovetails nicely with the CFS weeklies. 

Should we even bother with a January thread at this point?

[Jesse]

6 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If we go beyond Jan 14 or so it will be the longest EUG has ever gone without a sub-freezing high,

Anyone care to fact check this one? Assuming it's 100% fabricated considering the source.

[Timmy Supercell]

NWS did good with this first snow round. There is at most 1" in most places I measure.

Word is a pretty nice train of storms is hitting the PNW so I should be quite busy keeping notes this next week or so.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Should we even bother with a January thread at this point?

No. Winter is cancelled.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s pretty comical seeing people project their fantasies onto putrid model runs. 
 

06z was actually fairly interesting in the short to mid range, good thing the 12z so far is stepping back from that. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s pretty comical seeing people project their fantasies onto putrid model runs. 
 

06z was actually fairly interesting in the short to mid range, good thing the 12z so far is stepping back from that. 

Hmmm...would that be a guy's name that starts with J and ends with M?  Or is it the guy who starts with R and ends with B?

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Hmmm...would that be a guy's name that starts with J and ends with M?  Or is it the guy who starts with R and ends with B?

Maybe you should lie about another conference call to boost morale.

[Timmy Supercell]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Should we even bother with a January thread at this point?

Even if it doesn't snow where most people live, there's plenty of room for discussion in a January thread. This ones already got over 200 pages. Plus for future reference it's easier to have monthly threads. 

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s pretty comical seeing people project their fantasies onto putrid model runs. 
 

06z was actually fairly interesting in the short to mid range, good thing the 12z so far is stepping back from that. 

Like 528dm line over Andrew's house interesting?

[Jesse]

Phew, dusting off the old boxing gloves this morning. Let's send 2020 out with a bang guys!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Like 528dm line over Andrew's house interesting?

Did you see those 10 day precip totals?