December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One would think the system this weekend will mix things out a bit on the west side, though it is pretty weak.

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

Unfortunately Jim I think you're going to have to write off December for cold and snow.  That leaves January.  Once into February it's just sloppy seconds.  Wet snow.  This may end up being a dud of a winter.  

A dud Nina could be a hard pill to swallow for some. 

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

Unfortunately Jim I think you're going to have to write off December for cold and snow.  That leaves January.  Once into February it's just sloppy seconds.  Wet snow.  This may end up being a dud of a winter.  

It's December 4th lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

A dud Nina could be a hard pill to swallow for some. 

I lived through the late 90s. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I lived through the late 90s. 

1996-2003 flashbacks...

[Cloud]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I lived through the late 90s. 

I honestly don’t remember the 90s. The only thing I remembered was the post-Christmas Day snowstorm that ended up collapsing the marina and quickly turned into slush.
 

Other than that it was Saturday morning cartoons and Pokemon  

[Gradient Keeper]

East wind howling here with gusts roaring through slamming into the front(east facing) windows. Temp at 6 PM was 44.4 and is falling steadily now down to 41.8 despite the wind, so there is definitely some modest CAA occurring. This is definitely more of an inversion/cold pool pattern as the lower Columbia Basin stayed in the upper 20s to low 30s under a blanket of stratus/low clouds.

00z ECMWF in 2 hours 8 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I honestly don’t remember the 90s. The only thing I remembered was the post-Christmas Day snowstorm that ended up collapsing the marina and quickly turned into slush.
 

Other than that it was Saturday morning cartoons and Pokemon  

That was December 1996. 

[Gradient Keeper]

December 1996 worst ice storm of my life on the 26th. Wow.

 

Hmmm.... Pivotal stuck at HR 12

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[Weather1011]

35 minutes ago, Cloud said:

A dud Nina could be a hard pill to swallow for some. 

It's just weather, Something we can't control. It shouldn't effect anyone's mood to the point of being mad and sad. I love snow and cold like most of us on here, It's a added bonus for me in life but if it doesn't happen then it is what it is. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

 

Here is last nights 45 day GEFS.  I started at day 17, since we had already seen the first 16 days.

 

[snow_wizard]

43 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

Unfortunately Jim I think you're going to have to write off December for cold and snow.  That leaves January.  Once into February it's just sloppy seconds.  Wet snow.  This may end up being a dud of a winter.  

I was just talking about an inversion.  Normally very easy to pull off a good one this time of year.  You were the one that was saying we are going to get nailed this winter.  The chances are above average we will.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

 

Here is last nights 45 day GEFS.  I started at day 17, since we had already seen the first 16 days.

 

Outstanding progression! Thanks!

[snow_wizard]

Not sure why people are so negative right now.  The East Coast mets are saying the West's turn is coming.  There was a good discussion about it on Weatherbell.

[The Swamp]

35 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's December 4th lol

why do i always hear people say we don't want to get the goods too early? or this or that may be a warning shot.  we don't need a warning shot, we need the goods as early and as often as we can get it.

 

**** that man.  this is Washington.  it can snow whenever the **** it can snow because the next 15 days can be written off in my opinion.  that puts us to almost Christmas.  No snow in November. No snow in December.

it is what it is.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

49 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This thing is finally starting to look more like an inversion.  PDX is 43 with wind as opposed to the near 50 east wind situation a couple of days ago.  So far this inversion has fallen way short of what you would normally expect in December with a major ridge overhead.  The average low IMBY for the month to date is sitting right at 32 and there were a couple of hanging by a thread lucky breaks to make it that good.  Maybe with considerably colder air now in play east of the Cascades things will get a little colder overall.  

I tried to warn you this might happen…

[The Swamp]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I was just talking about an inversion.  Normally very easy to pull off a good one this time of year.  You were the one that was saying we are going to get nailed this winter.  The chances are above average we will.

I was really feeling it the way the blocking was setting up.  It just looks like those blocks aren't materializing in the same place.  Maybe they won't be back?  That's all.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Weather1011 said:

It's just weather, Something we can't control. It shouldn't effect anyone's mood to the point of being mad and sad. I love snow and cold like most of us on here, It's a added bonus for me in life but if it doesn't happen then it is what it is. 

Not so easy for some of us.  I have actually allowed the weather to partially ruin my life.  Something I'm not proud of, but that's the way it is.  I'm finally getting to the point where I deal with it a little better than I used to.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Not sure why people are so negative right now.  The East Coast mets are saying the West's turn is coming.  There was a good discussion about it on Weatherbell.

I don’t think people are negative at all. Most everyone understands the first 20-25 days of this month. Now if we get to New Years with nothing in sight this place will turn very dark. But I think within a week we will start to see some consistently exciting operational runs. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not so easy for some of us.  I have actually allowed the weather to partially ruin my life.  Something I'm not proud of, but that's the way it is.  I'm finally getting to the point where I deal with it a little better than I used to.

Consider moving to [insert name of metro area with colder winters here].

Really. If winters that are for the most part mild and rainy partially ruin your life, you are living in the wrong part of the world.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[The Swamp]

 

Just looks like run of the mill December weather if you ask me.

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

Just now, puyallupjon said:

 

Just looks like run of the mill December weather if you ask me.

Those last four words are key.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

why do i always hear people say we don't want to get the goods too early? or this or that may be a warning shot.  we don't need a warning shot, we need the goods as early and as often as we can get it.

 

**** that man.  this is Washington.  it can snow whenever the **** it can snow because the next 15 days can be written off in my opinion.  that puts us to almost Christmas.  No snow in November. No snow in December.

it is what it is.

It's just that January used to be our best month by a HUGE margin.  The potential in January is far greater than any other month.  During the period we had the very cold Januaries early cold was a lot less common.  Winters used to be more mid and back loaded.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Consider moving to [insert name of metro area with colder winters here].

Really. If winters that are for the most part mild and rainy partially ruin your life, you are living in the wrong part of the world.

No sheit.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

 

Just looks like run of the mill December weather if you ask me.

That's because that graph is depicting just that.  The good stuff could show up with little warning or it may wait until very late month.  The PNA will be turning minus.  Once that happens we have a better shot at a favorable block popping up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's just that January used to be our best month by a HUGE margin.  The potential in January is far greater than any other month.  During the period we had the very cold Januaries early cold was a lot less common.  Winters used to be more mid and back loaded.

Our air masses seem to still be colder on average later on, it’s just lower level cold has been more scarce. Probably 80% of the snow I’ve had in 10 years has fallen after January 15th. Our #1 snow month has been February,#2 has been March. 

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not sure why people are so negative right now.  The East Coast mets are saying the West's turn is coming.  There was a good discussion about it on Weatherbell.

Yep. Obvious to anyone who isn’t a  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[BLI snowman]

12/18 AR. Book it. That week looks like a very decent bet to be stormy on the EPS.

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not so easy for some of us.  I have actually allowed the weather to partially ruin my life.  Something I'm not proud of, but that's the way it is.  I'm finally getting to the point where I deal with it a little better than I used to.

What do you mean “ruin your life”?

We can’t control the weather. I get what you’re saying but you can’t let ma nature dominate you 24/7. Push back a little.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

34˚F and falling.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Our air masses seem to still be colder on average later on, it’s just lower level cold has been more scarce. Probably 80% of the snow I’ve had in 10 years has fallen after January 15th. Our #1 snow month has been February,#2 has been March. 

February is probably the GOAT month around here from an upper level standpoint. Just happens to coincide with rapidly shittening sun angles. Nature has a cruel sense of humor.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

12/18 AR. Book it. That week looks like a very decent bet to be stormy on the EPS.

I think this is a decent bet. The jet starts consolidating mid month and those GFS

operational runs are showing a ton of cold air pouring out over the GOA. 

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

What do you mean “ruin your life”?

We can’t control the weather. I get what you’re saying but you can’t let ma nature dominate you 24/7. Push back a little.

Yeah, ram your car into it. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 Decent little trough

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

February is probably the GOAT month around here from an upper level standpoint. Just happens to coincide with rapidly shittening sun angles. Nature has a cruel sense of humor.

You think sun angles are bad up there?

Cry me a river. 

February is usually the snowiest month of the year here too. But lately it’s been March..our average snowfall for March will actually increase from the 1981-2010 baseline to the 1991-2020 baseline. And December has completely collapsed.