November 2014 Observations and Discussion

[NEJeremy]

One of the recent runs of the GFS had everything so far south and suppressed that Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas got dumped on with snow. We're all so "excited" for this amazing unprecedented cold but the battleground of the air masses is going set up so far south we're going to get missed by the big ones and only get the arctic clippers

 

 

Yeah, it's interesting that we will get such an extreme pattern so early in the season, but all we will see from it is cold and dry.

[Tom]

With cold comes snow, we need to be patient as this pattern is much different than last year's, especially for you guys out in the Plains.  Just hang in there.

[Iowawx]

12Z Euro keeps all of the action to the south. Nothing worse than having a cold and dry pattern. 

[Geos]

I sure wish the wind would decrease. Trying to the get the last of the yard work done. Been a bit of a challenge with gusts around 30mph. 

 

Something will come along snow wise for the central part of the country. Maybe a clipper can get spun up out of this pattern.

[Tom]

I like the look at all the models forecasts on the AO/NAO.  They are all producing long sustained dips in their charting and do not show sporadic up and down spikes like we saw in October.  These sustained dips are characteristic of long 2-3 week stretches of sustained cold.  I believe in 2009-10 we had many sustained dips and would produce long stretches of cold (but nowhere near as intense).  Last year the PV came and went in 1-2 days.  This year looks plenty different already.

[Iowawx]

I like the look at all the models forecasts on the AO/NAO.  They are all producing long sustained dips in their charting and do not show sporadic up and down spikes like we saw in October.  These sustained dips are characteristic of long 2-3 week stretches of sustained cold.  I believe in 2009-10 we had many sustained dips and would produce long stretches of cold (but nowhere near as intense).  Last year the PV came and went in 1-2 days.  This year looks plenty different already.

Sure we've got the cold, but where's the snow? Anything on the horizon with the LRC?? 

[Tom]

Sure we've got the cold, but where's the snow? Anything on the horizon with the LRC?? 

The new LRC is not fully set up yet, still in Cycle 1...I think its coming to an end in about 2 weeks.

[Tom]

Looking out ahead towards Thanksgiving week and the pattern continues.  Euro ensembles showing NO signs of this cold pattern subsiding.  In fact, we see a continuation most likely for the remainder of this month.  Now, I am noticing the ensembles starting to agree in dislodging the PV near Hudson Bay by next weekend and doesn't look like it will leave anytime soon thereafter.  This would suggest a continued onslaught of cold air into the lower 48.

 

Having said that, I ask myself, will there be enough cold air in place for that storm system hammering the Bearing Sea???  The answer is, Yes!  Euro ensembles in remarkable agreement this far out and we should expect a stormy pattern somewhere in the central CONUS.

 

The 500mb pattern on the Euro ensembles are a classic coast to coast stormy pattern with blocking directly over the top, over the Pole.

[East Dubzz]

Having said that, I ask myself, will there be enough cold air in place for that storm system hammering the Bearing Sea???  The answer is, Yes!

Whether I agree with things you say or not, this question and answer is why it's always entertaining to read your posts, Tom. Always get enjoyment with all the enthusiasm you bring, that's for sure.

 

As for what you've been saying, really like how this pattern is setting up. Just hope we can get some snow on the ground, which I know will happen as long as we keep the cold around. I am ready for a clipper, I could go for a nice 1-3" or 2-4" snowfall to start off the season.

[Tom]

Whether I agree with things you say or not, this question and answer is why it's always entertaining to read your posts, Tom. Always get enjoyment with all the enthusiasm you bring, that's for sure.

 

As for what you've been saying, really like how this pattern is setting up. Just hope we can get some snow on the ground, which I know will happen as long as we keep the cold around. I am ready for a clipper, I could go for a nice 1-3" or 2-4" snowfall to start off the season.

It seems it is inevitable to get some snow, even with a Clipper like you said.  I like our chances with next weekends system and if that doesn't hit us, the chances of getting a Clipper rotating around the PV near Hudson Bay the following week, would increase that chance even farther.

[Tom]

CFSv2 take on the next 2 weeks with snow...also, the latest run would prob set Nov 2014 as the coldest month ever for the nation as a whole.

[Geos]

Pretty much got all the leaves up this afternoon. Hopefully nothing else blows into the yard this week!

 

Few stragglers left in a few of my Maples, but they can fall when they feel like it and stay until spring.

 

I'm hoping to get the Christmas lights up next weekend. Not sure how many I'll get up this year given it will be freezing cold. 51° today, near 50° tomorrow and that's it for the mild for awhile I think. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Read Andrew's blog on weather centre about the potential of a large storm over much of the central plains and midwest thanksgiving week. Oh how excited I would be if it came to fruition. Long ways to go and many caveats as he says to iron out.

[East Dubzz]

Yeah so far away and so many things can happen, I won't look much into that storm right now. Just keep it in the back of my mind. Who knows where it will end up too, if it does come to frutition.

[centralweather44]

Any word on that storm next weekend? Haven't seen a ton of updates on it today. I know it's still a long ways off.

[East Dubzz]

Could be wrong, but looks like an upper level disturbance that bring some light snow from Nebraska through Iowa, and then dries off as it heads into Illinois.

[Geos]

Any word on that storm next weekend? Haven't seen a ton of updates on it today. I know it's still a long ways off.

 

Hang on, I see something on the new GFS.

 

NE has a couple shots at light snow between now and next Monday it looks like on the new GFS. I haven't looked at any other model yet.

 

Ignore the snow band to the north, but you can see what I am talking about further south.

 

 

[Tom]

Could be wrong, but looks like an upper level disturbance that bring some light snow from Nebraska through Iowa, and then dries off as it heads into Illinois.

Yup, Bingo, its part of a piece of energy coming off the Pacific that hits the Rockies and scoots east into the Plains/Midwest.  This is almost very similar to what we saw 10 days ago regarding the system hitting the Northwoods tomorrow.  If we remember that situation, all the global models were showing was an arctic blast with little to NO snow, remember???  I made a suggestion that the energy would develop into something stronger and then finally the Euro caught onto that idea at I think Day 7 or so.

 

There is a lot of blocking and the type of pattern we have seen since October do not suggest a sheared piece of energy.  I think we will see this evolve into a more organized system.  As we move along, the models will get a better understanding of the timing, energy, etc.  This little wave showing up on both the Euro/GFS is a step in the right direction, IMO.

[centralweather44]

Thanks Geos & Tom. It will be interesting to see how this develops in the next couple of days. I personally run a snow removal company so would love to see something work into our area but still understand it is still early. We typically don't see snow until the first of December and still have lots of other work yet to get done this fall. We have had a very wet spring and fall here with some major rains so I can't wait to see how winter transpires. We actually had 7.5" of rain the last week on September. It was crazy.

[bud2380]

You are right tom. I went back and checked the 00z gfs from 11/4 and it showed some very light precip in far northern Wisconsin with southerly flow. Then the front drops in behind with virtually no moisture. That was between 144 and 168 hours out at the time. So even within a week the gfs was nowhere near correct on this storm. It's quite possible a stronger storm could yet develop out of this.

[bud2380]

Canadian ensembles shows a little light snow possible next weekend

 

[NEJeremy]

Did I count 2 or 3 big storms for the northeast on the latest GFS?! <_>

[tim the weatherman]

andrew at the weather centre has a good article up on his blog that this could be a sificant winter storm by thanksgiving and he said the target will be the central plains Midwest greatlakes and the ohio valley so travel will be impacted for thanksgiving this year with heavy snow on the backside of the storm while on the eastside of the storm will be severe outbreak.

[CentralNebWeather]

00z gfs shows good snow amounts across Nebraska next Sunday. Would be a nice way to get mid November off to a great snowy start.

[East Dubzz]

Between the Packers and Hawks, what a night. Would have been epic if I had a storm to follow tonight... but that will come!

[Money]

GFS showing 3-6 inches in Nebraska and 2-4 for most of IL/MI etc with high temps in the 10-15 range in WI/MN

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111000/gfsp_T2ma_us_32.png

[Geos]

The new GFS shows a wave next week bringing snow across the central Midwest. Hopefully it can get it's act together a bit quicker and boost totals further west.

 

 

[Money]

GGEM shows a nice swath of snow from NE/IA to IL/MI. Looks like maybe 3-5 in that area on that model.

[Grizzcoat]

I know its hour 384 on 00Z Gfs--- but it does show Andrew at Weather Centre idea of a storm for thanksgiving week.

[Geos]

GGEM shows a nice swath of snow from NE/IA to IL/MI. Looks like maybe 3-5 in that area on that model.

 

Sweet deal!

 

 

[Tom]

Gary Lezak posted this map on his blog today indicating the split flow in the eastern Pacific.  A characteristic sign of a weak/moderate El Nino.  Unlike last year, where storms rode up around the massive west coast ridge creating a dominant NW Flow, this year pieces of energy will break off and hit parts of the west coast and into the Rockies region where they can eject out into the Plains states.  I saw this set up over and over again on the CFSv2 maps way back in early October and they seem to be coming into fruition now.

[Tom]

After a pretty strong SSW event that began near Siberia back in mid October, another event is taking place near the Yukon, almost identical location where the blocking HP is currently located in the arctic.  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

[gosaints]

GFS has 300 hours cold boredom

[Tony]

GFS has 300 hours cold boredom

That figures...probably has the east coast getting slammed! 

[Scott26]

12Z GFS does show some light snow next weekend.

[Madtown]

Welcome to the tundra....

[CentralNebWeather]

Where did the Nebraska storms for next weekend and the following week go?  00z GFS and 06z GFS showed some good snows for the whole state and now nothing.  Hopefully comes back again.

[East Dubzz]

OT.... I asked this in the Everything Else section, but I'll ask here too.. Has anyone here seen Interstellar? An awesome movie, and people who like science would be interested too. A mix of science/drama/action and manly tears... Seriously, awesome movie and I'm not even a science geek. Just really gets your mind thinking.

[Tom]

OT.... I asked this in the Everything Else section, but I'll ask here too.. Has anyone here seen Interstellar? An awesome movie, and people who like science would be interested too. A mix of science/drama/action and manly tears... Seriously, awesome movie and I'm not even a science geek. Just really gets your mind thinking.

I saw the movie late last night and its prob one of the top 5 movies in my book.  It got my mind thinking on the way home from the theatre about the endless possibilities out there.