November 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Iowawx]

12Z euro showing a pretty organized storm near the end of its run. Will need it to come north to give us snow.

[Geos]

GFS parallel shows a light snowfall coming out into the Plains this weekend still.

 

 

EURO through 180 hours.

 

 

[Niko]

It feels great out there today. More like Spring weather. Temps were in the comfortzone (50s) with Partly Cloudy Skies and a light SE wind @ 6mph.

 

Thursday Snow??? I doubt it, system looks weak. 

 

Sunday Snow??? Bears watching.

 

It gets mighty COLDDDDDD. My highs are only in the 20s with overnight low temperatures dipping into the mid teens. WCF might play a roll.

[East Dubzz]

I saw the movie late last night and its prob one of the top 5 movies in my book. It got my mind thinking on the way home from the theatre about the endless possibilities out there.

Once of my favorite movies and really just makes you think about things. Another great production from Nolan.

[Tom]

Some real big hitters showing up on both the Euro Ensemble/Control over the next 2 weeks...

[Tony]

Not much on the horizon for snow the next 7 days or so but it being so early in November that is not a big deal for me but what does bother me is this darn cold that is taking shape. I hate cold weather without any signs of snow. Hopefully the models will latch onto a storm the next couple days to at least have something to track.

[Tom]

Not much on the horizon for snow the next 7 days or so but it being so early in November that is not a big deal for me but what does bother me is this darn cold that is taking shape. I hate cold weather without any signs of snow. Hopefully the models will latch onto a storm the next couple days to at least have something to track.

If we can squeeze a couple inches out of the wave coming through NE/IA/IL this weekend, I'll be happy before the second shot of cold hits next week.

 

Finished raking the rest of the leaves today with only a few leaves left.  It felt real warm out there today, high made it to 61F.  Time for the big drop and hopefully get some snow this weekend.

[centralweather44]

We hit 57 today at noon. By 5:00 it was 32 degrees and with winds of 25mph sustained. Feel like temp is 18 as I speak. Just crazy how fast things changed.

[Scott26]

Some real big hitters showing up on both the Euro Ensemble/Control over the next 2 weeks...

I will take e17 please lol

[WildWisconsinWeather]

If we can squeeze a couple inches out of the wave coming through NE/IA/IL this weekend, I'll be happy before the second shot of cold hits next week.

 

Finished raking the rest of the leaves today with only a few leaves left.  It felt real warm out there today, high made it to 61F.  Time for the big drop and hopefully get some snow this weekend.

 

Pretty much sums up my thoughts, 2-3" of snow with the weekend wave will make up for missing this latest storm that was unlikely to be able to occur too many Novembers of the past, either.

[Scott26]

A little off topic and I'm not sure whether any of you guys know this, but I'm a bit confused about what exactly makes any "Deterministic Model," for example the GFS or European model, deterministic. I read up on chaos theory and I'm aware that the atmosphere is so dynamic we need Ensembles to change initial conditions slightly. Also I understand that the Ensemble Mean is just the average of all of the ensembles. But, what exactly makes the normal run the deterministic run? Does it contain the original mathematical equations with no changes or is there another reason why it's considered "Deterministic."

[Geos]

OT.... I asked this in the Everything Else section, but I'll ask here too.. Has anyone here seen Interstellar? An awesome movie, and people who like science would be interested too. A mix of science/drama/action and manly tears... Seriously, awesome movie and I'm not even a science geek. Just really gets your mind thinking.

 

I just read the description of that movie. Sounds awesome! Probably going to watch it tonight or tomorrow night. Love those kinds of movies.

 

Up to about 58° today. Won't be long now before it feel like winter. 

[Tom]

Skilling is going with upper 20's for highs Wed-Fri, low 30's over the weekend, then low 20's for Monday...it's been months since I have seen a 7-day forecast like that!  Really hoping most of us can squeeze some snow out of that wave this weekend.  Might have to put up the Christmas lights much earlier this year.  Will see how things go during Thanksgiving week.  Might have a brief period then to put them up.

[Tom]

I just read the description of that movie. Sounds awesome! Probably going to watch it tonight or tomorrow night. Love those kinds of movies.

 

Up to about 58° today. Won't be long now before it feel like winter. 

Highly recommend watching "Interstellar"...Matthew Mc Conaughey hits it out of the park in this movie.  One of his better movies, IMO.  It's a pretty long flick, 2 hours 50min long but it isn't boring at all.  Time flies.

[Geos]

Some real big hitters showing up on both the Euro Ensemble/Control over the next 2 weeks...

 

I'll take e16, 17, or 20!

 

Even e7, 22 or 23 aren't that bad either! haha

 

Edit: Thanks for the heads up on the movie time. That's a long one!

 

Enjoyed what I could of the 58° today, but rolling down the windows a bit on the way home.

[Niko]

Its so mild outside right now, I actually have my windows open. UnreaL!!

[CentralNebWeather]

Wind chill close to 0 in Holdrege Nebraska.  Our open window day was yesterday, that is now a ancient history.  Enough snow has come down to cover the grass with a thin coating and the streets are getting covered.  Looks like winter.

[Tom]

Wind chill close to 0 in Holdrege Nebraska.  Our open window day was yesterday, that is now a ancient history.  Enough snow has come down to cover the grass with a thin coating and the streets are getting covered.  Looks like winter.

I love it when powdery snow falls from the sky and gets whipped around...ground blizzards are awesome.  We saw many of those last year, hopefully this is just the beginning for you guys out there and around here.

[Geos]

There's the front, a thin line on doppler radar. Winds turning N in Madison as I type this.

 

 

Skilling seems excited about the cold coming! 

 

Edit: Actually this front is moving pretty swiftly - almost up to Whitewater now. Cold, dense air has its way this time of year!

[Tom]

I think Madison on north may get a surprise burst of snow tomorrow...may get a quick 1-2" around there.

[Money]

Is there any sign that the cold coming up is going to relax a little bit? It's way too early to be talking about temps around 20. The average high is nearly 50 yet.

[Tom]

Is there any sign that the cold coming up is going to relax a little bit? It's way too early to be talking about temps around 20. The average high is nearly 50 yet.

Not really, Euro has your area in the low 20's Sat, then early next week is when some record breaking cold hits...especially with a fresh deep snow cover just to our north this cold coming is remarkable.  If we get some snow over the weekend, it can get a bit colder.

[centralweather44]

Flurries falling here. Our back table is about covered but nothing sticking to ground or street. Ground temps are 45 degrees yet so i am assuming everything that falls tonight will be gone by morning.

[Money]

GFS continuing to show at least a chance for some snow on the 15th/16th. Looks like a widespread area of 1-3 inches from NE/IA/MN into WI/IL 

[james1976]

Im happy to see the GFS being consistent with this coming weekend's event.

[East Dubzz]

I just read the description of that movie. Sounds awesome! Probably going to watch it tonight or tomorrow night. Love those kinds of movies.

 

Up to about 58° today. Won't be long now before it feel like winter.

Let me know what you think. As Tom said, MM kills it. May be my favorite movie of his, just a thrilling movie and involves lots of scinece.

 

Great day today, but that is now coming to an end.

[Tom]

00z GFS...not bad for N NE...lets see if this can come together a bit more in the coming days...

 

[Geos]

If we get snow on the ground, which I expect we will a little bit - we'll probably break records next week. 

 

Skilling basically said, say good bye to anything near 60° until next spring!

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111100/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111100/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

[james1976]

Man, id love to have a nice 2" snow event this weekend. The cold coming next week is quite unreal for November.

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111100/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111100/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111100/gfsp_asnow_us_24.png

[Tom]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111100/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111100/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

With that HP off to the east and the SLP coming out into the Plains, I can see this thing buckle or atleast slow and try to intensify a bit more in future runs.

[Money]

Pretty sure that's the first run that I've seen that develops a low pressure system like that. Actually gets it down to about 1009 a frame after that over lake Michigan 

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111100/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111100/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

[Tom]

Almost same scenario setting up like today's storm...except, GFS is showing that intriguing piece of energy down by the Gulf coast.  If that piece can somehow come into play, now your talking

[Money]

Here was the 18z run at HR 132 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111018/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

 

Now, here is the 0z run at HR 126

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111100/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

[Geos]

New GFS snowfall amounts through 168 hours.

2 or so inches would be awesome before Thanksgiving.

 

 

 

Thanks for posting those maps Money.

[Grizzcoat]

00Z GFS has Thanksgiving week system on the 25th-- as mentioned by Anthony at The Weather Centre.

 

***edit*** the 24th.

[Money]

GFS with a sub 980 L over LSE around the 25th. 

[Money]

GGEM not all that impressed with the system on the 15th. Although it tries to develop it and just ends up weakening.