MossMan Posted January 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Lovely dry morning. 37 degrees. Looks like the power crews gained more headway overnight. Sounds like Snohomish Co PUD brought in crews from eastern Wa as well. 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: Lovely dry morning. 37 degrees. Looks like the power crews gained more headway overnight. Sounds like Snohomish Co PUD brought in crews from eastern Wa as well. That one rogue member isn't quite as rogue as it was the last time I saw it. 3 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Couple more shots 5 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Still looking like we are about a week out from or coolest upper level airmass of the season. 2 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Forecast for Tim’s yard looking less suicidal. 🌦 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Looks like we stopped the bleeding on this run. No arctic air or snow below 1000', but were we really expecting that anyway? Tim, I expect you to post plenty of pics! 1 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looks like we stopped the bleeding on this run. No arctic air or snow below 1000', but were we really expecting that anyway? Tim, I expect you to post plenty of pics! Healthier -NAO and less of that positively tilted troughing spilling out over the GOA. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Which in the nearer term might actually increase the onshore component, but the wave axis would build more cold as time goes on. I still like the very end of the month for the big shot of cold, with the stuff beforehand being more of an appetizer. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looks like we stopped the bleeding on this run. No arctic air or snow below 1000', but were we really expecting that anyway? Tim, I expect you to post plenty of pics! Lots of sea level snow up here on this one. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Really a stellar run. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, VancouverIslandSouth said: Lots of sea level snow up here on this one. That is exciting. Not so much for the Americans. Probably God's punishment for the shame we have brought on ourselves. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 -40C 850s spanning the Yukon. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 January 2008! 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Of course there’s some funny business going on over the Aleutians so it’s not perfect either. But models should catch onto more interesting solutions soon enough. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looks like we stopped the bleeding on this run. No arctic air or snow below 1000', but were we really expecting that anyway? Tim, I expect you to post plenty of pics! Looks like snow below 1000ft to me. 3 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: January 2008! Lol. Everyone keeps bringing up that month and I’m lost as to why. I don’t see any large scale similarities. Blocking is much healthier this time. Only problem is we’re wasting a week building cold back on this side of the pole, after the Pacific eviscerated it over the holidays. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Lol. Everyone keeps bringing up that month and I’m lost as to why. I don’t see any large scale similarities. Blocking is much healthier this time. Only problem is we’re wasting a week building cold back on this side of the pole, after the Pacific eviscerated it over the holidays. This month is about 10 degrees warmer than 2008 was so far, and that is not an exaggeration. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: This month is about 10 degrees warmer than 2008 was so far, and that is not an exaggeration. So..not similar? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, Phil said: Lol. Everyone keeps bringing up that month and I’m lost as to why. I don’t see any large scale similarities. Blocking is much healthier this time. Only problem is we’re wasting a week building cold back on this side of the pole, after the Pacific eviscerated it over the holidays. The effects for us look like pretty much a dead ringer, as far as we're concerned. And there was decent blocking late in the month that year http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2008/us0121.php 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 All this January 2008 talk, was that good for us? I don’t remember getting snow then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: So..not similar? The upcoming pattern seems potentially similar. That month was near average to slightly below the first half, while the first half of this January has absolutely torched, but the 2nd half of the month could be similar. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Meh... Our block migrates to the North Pole in the LR after barely hanging around long enough to do much of anything for us. It's certainly looking more likely we see a brief period of NPAC blocking while it continues it's march NNW and eventually buckles to more Aleutian energy. At least if the operational runs are believed to be correct. Yeah, just looking like a pretty brief window to tap into that fairly modified continental airmass there. Theme seems to be a quick return to onshore flow afterwards, with the best shot of lowland snow being about 10 days out during the transition out of the offshore flow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: The effects for us look like pretty much a dead ringer, as far as we're concerned. And there was decent blocking late in the month that year http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2008/us0121.php There was a +NAM and +EPO that month. The regional conditions might look similar on models for now due to the (initial) lack of cold on this side of the pole, and how that plays into baroclinic potential for storm/wave growth, but the large scale circulation is quite different and, eventually, so will be the weather out there. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Timmy said: All this January 2008 talk, was that good for us? I don’t remember getting snow then. There was sporadic lowland snow and it stayed fairly chilly. Eugene and SW OR had a nice anafront snowstorm late in the month. The Portland and Seattle areas had some sticking snow a day later with snow showers in an upper level low. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: There was a +NAM and +EPO that month. The effects might look similar on models for now due to the (initial) lack of cold on this side of the pole, and how that plays into baroclinic potential for storm/wave growth, but the large scale circulation is quite different and, eventually, so will be the weather out there. I'm sure we will eventually deviate from it, yes. Just no signs of it whatsoever on the models right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: January 2008! Might see a few wet snowflakes for the first time this winter! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: I'm sure we will eventually deviate from it, yes. Just no signs of it whatsoever on the models right now. If anything it looks like the back half of this month will be significantly warmer than late January 2008. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Took a look at the GEM. Not much interesting there. The fact is these operational GFS runs are way more bullish than the other models for late next week. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Eugene getting a little love from GFS op 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Not saying either of these are analogs, but which one bears more resemblance to the projected pattern? And..what are we missing that will (at least initially) prevent a homogenous outcome in terms of observed weather? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 17 minutes ago, Phil said: Lol. Everyone keeps bringing up that month and I’m lost as to why. I don’t see any large scale similarities. Blocking is much healthier this time. Only problem is we’re wasting a week building cold back on this side of the pole, after the Pacific eviscerated it over the holidays. You are always focused on the big picture. Most people on here only care about local outcomes in their corner of the state. The 12z gives many of us similar conditions to 2008. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Not saying either of these are analogs, but which one bears more resemblance to the projected pattern? And..what are we missing that will (at least initially) prevent a homogenous outcome in terms of observed weather? Common sense. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said: Eugene getting a little love from GFS op Very January 2008. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: If anything it looks like the back half of this month will be significantly warmer than late January 2008. Doesn't look likely that we see an airmass colder than the day I posted above. Most of these model runs I'm seeing really don't build a ton of cold air overall, either. Any comparisons to 1989 or 1969 look fairly ridiculous by comparison. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: You are always focused on the big picture. Most people on here only care about local outcomes in their corner of the state. The 12z gives many of us similar conditions to 2008. But local outcomes arise through the big picture. I’m not a mesoscale guy, but I feel comfortable saying this upcoming pattern has more *potential* than Jan/Feb 2008 could’ve ever hoped to have. Not even in the same ballpark. The 2007/08 pattern was quite zonal across the hemisphere with mediocre pacific blocking at best, and no downstream blocking whatsoever. There wasn’t even a chance for Arctic cold with that, regardless of how the models may or may not have looked at the time. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, Phil said: The answer: 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Doesn't look likely that we see an airmass colder than the day I posted above. Most of these model runs I'm seeing really don't build a ton of cold air overall, either. Any comparisons to 1989 or 1969 look fairly ridiculous by comparison. That airmass and subsequent pattern ended up producing some pretty cold temps by January standards in the WV. At Eugene. 1/21/08: 39/25 1/22: 39/21 1/23: 38/21 1/24: 32/18 1/25: 38/20 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: But local outcomes arise through the big picture. I’m not a mesoscale guy, but I feel comfortable saying this upcoming pattern has more *potential* than Jan/Feb 2008 could’ve ever hoped to have. Not even in the same ballpark. The 2007/08 pattern was quite zonal across the hemisphere with mediocre pacific blocking at best, and no downstream blocking whatsoever. There wasn’t even a chance for Arctic cold with that, regardless of how the models may or may not have looked at the time. I'm confident you would have been giving a similar speech at this point in 2008. There was in fact some arctic air that month, the PNW had a modified arctic airmass on the 21st with that offshore block, and then there was a progressive shot of arctic air into B.C. on the 28th. And if 2007-08 was zonal, what does that make this winter? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, Phil said: But local outcomes arise through the big picture. I’m not a mesoscale guy, but I feel comfortable saying this upcoming pattern has more *potential* than Jan/Feb 2008 could’ve ever hoped to have. Not even in the same ballpark. The 2007/08 pattern was quite zonal across the hemisphere with mediocre pacific blocking at best, and no downstream blocking whatsoever. There wasn’t even a chance for Arctic cold with that, regardless of how the models may or may not have looked at the time. Locally, January 2008 featured a relatively mild (although much colder than this month) start followed by some meandering ridging. Retrogression then occurred with a modestly-solid continental air mass followed by further retrogression and a “messy” but cool pattern to round out the month. Looks and sounds kind of familiar. Add to that the fact that it was a first year nina which was primarily +EPO driven and yeah, you’re gonna get some comparisons. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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