Tom Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Tony, I'd imagine the warmth and rain on top if it would do a little damage to the ice in the middle of the lake where the ice is thinner. Probably not enough to aggravate a large chunk of it. Needless to say, enjoy the warmth bc Ol' Man Winter is coming back with a vengeance. Hoping the rains are not that heavy. Euro/GGEM are about the same with qpf totals. NAM/GFS unload about 1" or more...that wouldn't be good to the snow pack. Worst case scenario we would have 6"+ on the ground still I'm thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 I thought this picture speaks for itself...a buddy of mine soaking up the sunshine and breaking out of hibernation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 How cold has it been in northern Wisconsin? http://www.wsaw.com/home/headlines/Deputy-Rescused-Raccoon-Froze-to-Sidewalk-246013431.html WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 I thought this picture speaks for itself...a buddy of mine soaking up the sunshine and breaking out of hibernation!Let the party begin!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 That's cold^!Poor guy. Lol at that picture!I walked outside in short sleeves, no coat about an hour ago. Torching into the mid 40s now. Snow depth has come down at least 3". Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 I just measured my snow depth and its at 14-15"...came down only 1" or a little more. Top layer getting soft but just underneath the first few inches its still powdery. It feels like Spring out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 12z Euro already showing signs of what the pattern will be like next week and goes in line with the LRC. Multiple waves running along the arctic boundary from the Plains into the GL region. This is a great pattern for snow systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 The word "torch" has been criticized by many but I have to agree with you Geos that it is finally a nice day. Almost forgot what it felt like to be in the 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 The word "torch" has been criticized by many but I have to agree with you Geos that it is finally a nice day. Almost forgot what it felt like to be in the 40's 40s with the sun out too. Last time it was raining and at night. Maybe the last time was the very early in December? Impressive WAA. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 12z Euro already showing signs of what the pattern will be like next week and goes in line with the LRC. Multiple waves running along the arctic boundary from the Plains into the GL region. This is a great pattern for snow systems.I can see supression written all over it for next week...hope I am wrong. If we do get clippers it's getting to that time of the year where they can be more potent so someting to look forward to otherwise cold and dry is worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 WOW is it warm in the sun. Poor snow is taking a beating out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 42 here!! They actually changed the high for today to 51! Now I don't think that'll happen, but I think we could see at least 45! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 NAM looks like an ice/snow event here looking at the precip types Dude, over 400 posts and still have no idea where you are..just sayin. You may want to add a locale.. 1 Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 bye bye snowpack. i dont like temps this warm right now. just got done looking at the highest snow piles ive had all winter and now they will be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 James, you're in a better position than a lot of us because at least you'll be seeing snow again this week. As for places around me and east, enjoy this snow pack, it's taking a huge hit this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Would the warm air be stronger or weaker if there was less wind? I was under the impression that it would get warmer, but I may be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 With a deep snow pack, less wind would lower temps bc it has less of a chance to mix down warmer air near the surface and create a temp inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 66 degrees here today!! I love the feeling when I go outside. Just beautiful!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 66 degrees here today!! I love the feeling when I go outside. Just beautiful!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 CFS showing pretty good precip Feb 23-28...in line with what I'm thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Peaked at almost 50° back at home! 49.9° to be exact. Supposed to be quite windy on Thursday... Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLIZZARD09 Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 How did it get so warm with this snowpack on the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 How did it get so warm with this snowpack on the ground? Pacific air and windy conditions mixed it down to the surface. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Just looking at the 12z Euro teleconnections and signs of high latitude blocking are very evident. For the 1st time this season, the AO is showing signs of tanking last week of February to levels we haven't seen this year. The NAO is also forecasted to break through its pattern of slightly negative/positive territory and dipping into a solid negative stage. Both the EPO/WPO (which have been driving this winter's cold pattern) are also taking a dive into negative territory. Joe D Aleo's research regarding low geomagnetic solar cycles is looking more likely to come into fruition. High latitude blocking happens late in the winter season/early Spring (just like it did last year). If there is blocking, we may have more storms that slow and blow up to much larger systems. Just to give you an idea what may be yet to come, last year we had 10.7" of snow up to this day and we finished off the year around 34". Given the pattern we have been this winter, I would not be surprised if we are able to get another 2 Feet of snow from this point on. Odds are certainly in our favor for a lot more snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Just looking at the 12z Euro teleconnections and signs of high latitude blocking are very evident. For the 1st time this season, the AO is showing signs of tanking last week of February to levels we haven't seen this year. The NAO is also forecasted to break through its pattern of slightly negative/positive territory and dipping into a solid negative stage. Both the EPO/WPO (which have been driving this winter's cold pattern) are also taking a dive into negative territory. Joe D Aleo's research regarding low geomagnetic solar cycles is looking more likely to come into fruition. High latitude blocking happens late in the winter season/early Spring (just like it did last year). If there is blocking, we may have more storms that slow and blow up to much larger systems. Just to give you an idea what may be yet to come, last year we had 10.7" of snow up to this day and we finished off the year around 34". Given the pattern we have been this winter, I would not be surprised if we are able to get another 2 Feet of snow from this point on. Odds are certainly in our favor for a lot more snowfall.Tom, you just made my day!! It really is starting to look like we won't get much snow on Thursday, and I still want more. Maybe Thursday can turn more towards our favor in Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 CFS showing pretty good precip Feb 23-28...in line with what I'm thinking.Would that all be snow? ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 ^ Sciascia, yes, that would support all snow...doesn't that look familiar to what our area experienced NYE thru Jan 5th??? I think so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 CFS showing pretty good precip Feb 23-28...in line with what I'm thinking. Day 7 Plains weak WAA still sparks my interest right now. It could become a more robust WAA event and a big one if PV doesent end up squashing it so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 +1 Dominick, I think the placement of the PV this time around wont suppress storms as much since we are late in the season. We are still in a good spot to see these waves along the southern periphery of the arctic air. Although, sometime later next week I feel we will have a visit of the PV...round 4...fight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 The system heading into California early next week that is suppose to bring some much needed rain to that area, is that a system that could affect us next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 WOW. bullseye of COLD!http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Yeah 20s for next week it looks like. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 CFSv2 trending even colder for March...this could become an epic month of cold (departure wise), possibly colder than last year. Last year we didn't have the cross polar flow that we have this year with the amplifying jet stream into the arctic regions near Alaska. If I remember correctly, the cold last year was based on the cold building over Canada and not the arctic regions of Siberia or the north pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Bring on the cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 What a beautiful night out. Clear skies, temps in the mid 30s still, a little breeze. Just seems like a perfect night compared to what we've had. Was out in shorts and a sweatshirt a little bit ago, and it felt just perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 What a beautiful night out. Clear skies, temps in the mid 30s still, a little breeze. Just seems like a perfect night compared to what we've had. Was out in shorts and a sweatshirt a little bit ago, and it felt just perfect! Yeah it's really nice out! Furnace isn't kicking on as often either. 38-39° here. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Yeah it's really nice out! Furnace isn't kicking on as often either. 38-39° here.Tomorrow is going to be a really nice one. Almost all the snow and ice still on my driveway is gone. Still a little left, but that should be all gone tomorrow. That's nice too. Forecast of 40 and sunny tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised to see it overachieve again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 I can't wait for summer. Tom you ready for the beach and ladies I am working on that gut! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Hell ya man! Been hitting the gym hard and sculpting the body. Chicago is going to go nuts when the temps hit the 60's/70's...I remember 2 years ago the Spring was so bad that when temps hit the 90's on Memorial Day...North Ave beach closed bc it was overly crowded. I could see that happening this year if April doesn't flip warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Nice -30 850 mb temps showing up on the euro at hr 216 at 2-28 0z. GFS/GGEM agrees. GGEM with -35 to -40 2M temps at HR 216/228 in MN lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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