December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Okay, I'm going to stop defending January 2013.

 

Yes there were some impressive temp anomalies that month. -4.1 at SLE -8.7 at BNO, and the astounding -11.7 at Ontario. 

 

But I'll be real it was a pretty boring month with tons of fog. And impressive temp anomalies in basin valleys really don't mean much for interesting weather where we live. Take Ontario's +1.8 departure in January 1969.

Jan 1969 must have a very strong N to S anomaly gradient.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Someone got a lump of coal in their stocking...

[snow_wizard]

Just ran the map.  No wonder there was so much snow with that kind temp gradient over such a long period.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jan 1969 must have a very strong N to S anomaly gradient.

It did. Though it was well below average for most of western oregon. But I think the further south the more of a maritime influence their was.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Just ran the map. No wonder there was so much snow with that kind temp gradient over such a long period.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd71.231.28.224.358.13.3.28.prcp.png

Yeah, eugene had 47 inches of snow that month, but they have had much colder Januaries.

[van city]

Just one run (for me at least).

 

I'm working on Christmas, gotta find something enjoyable.

 

I'll shut up now.

Please don't stop. This is great play by play.

 

Merry Christmas to everyone!

[IbrChris]

Please don't.

 

Your insights are appreciated.

Thanks...well maybe I will write a small post on the 12z Euro ensembles in a couple hours.

[MossMan]

The over analysis and the posting for the sake of posting as you describe it is fine. I think that as most of the discussion has been PDX centric when it isn't focused over the region as a whole leaves a lot of questions for our KSEA and CYVR friends. On that note, for anyone reading and lurking, feel free to post and ask questions or tell us what you think!

 

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

Yeah I was curious about my area since our forum friends to the south were mentioning past events and dates that were not very memorable up here.

[FroYoBro]

The lowest maximum daily temperature at PDX in November was 38.

Yes, but I'm sure you know that it was 32 during the afternoon heating hours. I worded it badly.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Merry Christmas everyone, and thanks for all of the analysis.

 

 

Yeah I was curious about my area since our forum friends to the south were mentioning past events and dates that were not very memorable up here.

 

Yeah, I think so far it looks like the 500 mb pattern will favour the Gorge areas moreso than up here, much like the November events. The block seems to set up a bit too close to the BC coast and spill over into central BC, which may cut off the coldest air from reaching the Fraser Valley.

 

I could be wrong and things may improve for us, though.

[Snowman5678]

Does a 5min Ice Pellet shower count for a White Christmas? Better than nothing!! Exciting weather coming up, going to be fun!

 

Had an ice pellet shower here at about 4:30 in the morning. Coated the ground a bit but melted quickly.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I have not been on here much the past two days and no time to catch up today but I wanted to wish everyone a sincere and heart felt Merry Christmas!!!  Love this forum and so many great people here. The analysis has been amazing BTW!  I wish I could read all the pages but the few I have read have been great!

[ShawniganLake]

Some model runs and ensembles indicate a situation where the southern branch of the jet undercuts the northern branch. Huge potential for snow with that. To me the possible second event looks less likely to be back door.

At this point I like the way the euro is handling the potential second shot. Doubt that one would be totally dry up here. Of course it will likely change slightly with each model run though.

[Jesse]

Pretty hard to take a break with model runs like this.

All the more reason to.

 

I am quickly coming to the conclusion that following events like this with a microscope sucks the fun out of them.

 

I actually hadn't checked the models for four days until this morning. I was pleasantly surprised to see the modified arctic intrusion for early next week.

[luvssnow_spokane]

All the more reason to.

 

I am quickly coming to the conclusion that following events like this with a microscope sucks the fun out of them.

No one forced you to read it...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All the more reason to.

 

I am quickly coming to the conclusion that following events like this with a microscope sucks the fun out of them.

 

I actually hadn't checked the models for four days until this morning. I was pleasantly surprised to see the modified arctic intrusion for early next week.

It snowed at my house.

[Jesse]

It snowed at my house.

Nice. I figured you got some snow yesterday morning.

[Jesse]

At this point I like the way the euro is handling the potential second shot. Doubt that one would be totally dry up here. Of course it will likely change slightly with each model run though.

Sounds like these troughs will either be digging deep down the west coast or they won't and there will be a strong north south temperature gradient.

 

Interesting stuff. Stay tuned!!

[BLI snowman]

Merry Christmas. Hope no one asked Santa for snow, lol!

[BLI snowman]

All the more reason to.

 

I am quickly coming to the conclusion that following events like this with a microscope sucks the fun out of them.

 

I actually hadn't checked the models for four days until this morning. I was pleasantly surprised to see the modified arctic intrusion for early next week.

 

Nah, only deeply paranoid weenies who wear their emotions on their sleeves think that. 

 

You do strike me as someone who has had actual nightmares about the 48 hour GFS trending way warmer.

[bainbridgekid]

18z NAM looks pretty nice. Weekend shortwave digs very similarly to the 12z and noticeably more favorably than the GFS.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/20141225/18/nam_namer_084_500_vort_ht_s.gif

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nam looks nice for sure.

[ShawniganLake]

Sounds like these troughs will either be digging deep down the west coast or they won't and there will be a strong north south temperature gradient.

 

Interesting stuff. Stay tuned!!

I plan to stay tuned. It's fun to follow. I am usually able to avoid suicidal thoughts when the models trend poorly or when the warm season ends up warm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z NAM looks pretty nice. Weekend shortwave digs very similarly to the 12z and noticeably more favorably than the GFS.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/20141225/18/nam_namer_084_500_vort_ht_s.gif

Very nice

[FroYoBro]

Sounds like these troughs will either be digging deep down the west coast or they won't and there will be a strong north south temperature gradient.

 

Interesting stuff. Stay tuned!!

You should be banned for this.

 

WHAT A BUNCH OF LOSERS!!!!!!!!!!!! TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL COLD ON A PNW WEATHER THREAD???? GET A LIFE.

[GHweatherChris]

Its funny how some on here, who are just as neurotic as the rest of us, just decide to pretend to be above what we do on a model by model basis, like they are better than the rest of us.

[The Swamp]

When something good gets with in 2-3 days on the models, I get excited. I think tomorrow will be that day. Hope the models treat us well tomorrow.

[Jesse]

Sorry to everyone I offended with my comments.

 

Logging on for the first time in several days and seeing a lengthy post discussing the 11-15 day range in detail followed immediately by a post from the same user directly contradicting the previous one just reminded me of some of the downfalls of hard core model riding. No more, no less.

 

I have a good feeling about the next couple weeks. Just important not to get too hung up on details right now. Is Phil still feeling this period for us too? Haven't seen anything from him the last few pages.

[GHweatherChris]

Sorry to everyone I offended with my comments.

 

Logging on for the first time in several days and seeing a lengthy post discussing the 11-15 day range in detail followed immediately by a post from the same user directly contradicting the previous one just reminded me of some of the downfalls of hard core model riding. No more, no less.

 

I have a good feeling about the next couple weeks. Just important not to get too hung up on details right now. Is Phil still feeling this period for us too? Haven't seen anything from him the last few pages.

Phil is trying to convince us or himself (not sure which) that the first shot of cold this weekend won't amount to anything.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Come on, guys.  Everyone be nice.  It's Christmas for crying out out loud!  If you don't like what's being posted, kindly press the off button and come back later.

 

It doesn't get any easier than that.  Everyone, post away! 

[Jesse]

Phil is trying to convince us or himself (not sure which) that the first shot of cold this weekend won't amount to anything.

Maybe he just means relative to the insane January 1963 style coast to coast cold coming up next month.

[Jbolin]

Long time lurker, first time poster but wanted to wish everyone a merry x-mas and I like many others hope the potential for a nice outbreak comes to pass and that all of us in some capacity get a memorable experience heading into January. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Through hour 75 the 18z is a bit further east.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Further east through 108

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yep the 18z keeps us warmer and some what dry.... Wrong way trend. Still cool though but not to exciting at this point.

[MossMan]

Yep the 18z keeps us warmer and some what dry.... Wrong way trend. Still cool though but not to exciting at this point.

Good thing it's only the 18z. Going to be fun watching the 0z's tonight!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I bet sometime soon the parallel and the operational flip on the "reload. "

[GHweatherChris]

I bet sometime soon the parallel and the operational flip on the "reload. "

I have that feeling as well, it has to at least once, it happens every time we are leading up to a potential blast.

 

If so though, the ER's better be ready for some heart attack victims of the weenie variety.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Haha the 18z parallel is really good for the initial shot!

[whitechristmas]

I bet sometime soon the parallel and the operational flip on the "reload. "

 

Do you mean flip to include the "reload", or delete it?