December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[GHweatherChris]

Kind of rude.

 

The overall attitude on here right now kind of ticks me off quite frankly.

Nothing rude, just truth.

 

The overall attitude is indicative of the boring pattern we are in.  

 

This cold snap was not dynamic or exciting, yes it is cold out, but not historic or snowy, other than barometric pressures.  And please do not bring up the few areas that might break a record, it wouldn't be region wide either way.

 

Nothing to be excited about.

[snow_wizard]

Didn't I mentioned in my 5:10 PM Analysis about the blocking ridge holding stronger than modeled? Seattle NWS hints at this.... I am quite intrigued. Should point out that a new monster low around 950mb is just off Kamchatka nearing the southwestern Bering Sea. That could keep the Alaskan block much stronger. Just throwing that out there. Everything hinges on this, and downstream energy east of the dateline.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

900 PM PST TUE DEC 30 2014

 

.SHORT TERM...A 500 MB BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN ALASKA DOWN TO A 583 DAM CENTER AT 43N 134W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1052 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE MAIN MASS OF COLD AIR MOVES OFF INTO THE CENTRAL US GREAT PLAINS. THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SURFACE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SAGS SE AND WEAKENS FURTHER.

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TAKEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO THE BLOCKING RIDGE. AS IT MOVES EASTWARD WHILE ENTRAINING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM NORTH OF HAWAII...A RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA...MOVES INTO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE FLOW SOMEWHAT OVER THE PACIFIC AS THE BLOCK OVER ALASKA PINCHES OFF AND MOVES POLEWARD. *THIS WHOLE PROCESS TAKES PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. *WHILE THE INCOMING 00Z GFS AND GFS PARALLEL SOLUTIONS STILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS SCRIPT...THEY DO IT A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENTLY IN THAT THEY -*TRY TO KEEP MORE BLOCKING GOING OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.*- THE MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO QUITE SENSITIVE TO THE AMOUNT OF DEVELOPMENT THAT TAKES PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THE BLOCK DAYS 1-2...AND TO THE LOW THAT MOVES NORTHWARD FROM NORTH OF HAWAII ALONG 150W TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH TIME. A SPLIT AND COMPLEX NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SE OF KAMCHATKA TO NW OF WESTERN HAWAII ALSO APPEARS TO BE CAUSING SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY ISSUES. MOST OF THE PROBLEMS CAUSED BY THESE FEATURES WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL FORECAST STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

Fabulous discussion. I still have a lot faith that something good is coming.

[snow_wizard]

Nothing rude, just truth.

 

The overall attitude is indicative of the boring pattern we are in.  

 

This cold snap was not dynamic or exciting, yes it is cold out, but not historic or snowy, other than barometric pressures.  And please do not bring up the few areas that might break a record, it wouldn't be region wide either way.

 

Nothing to be excited about.

It's actually not boring at all. We find ourselves in yet another air mass way more than cold enough to produce snow. The details are what is messing us up for snow. The big picture has provided many chances to score. Then again I like cold no matter what.

 

BTW let's wait and see what kind of temps we come up with before deciding on the depth of this cold snap. I see the potential for some solid numbers tonight.

 

And yes your post to Phil was rude.

[GHweatherChris]

Kind of rude.

 

The overall attitude on here right now kind of ticks me off quite frankly.

I also hope you are onto something with your analysis, but IMO right now things are just stagnant.

 

If that is enough to constitute a bad attitude in your opinion than I am sorry for you.

[GHweatherChris]

It's actually not boring at all. We find ourselves in yet another air mass way more than cold enough to produce snow. The details are what are messing up. The big picture has provided many chances to score. Then again I like cold no matter what.

You have your preferences and some of us have ours.  But yes, the pattern today and tomorrow is boring no matter how you swing it.

 

It is ok for people to enjoy different things Jim, no reason for you to feel that we are debbie downers because our optimism does not match yours.

[Tyler Mode]

A beautiful day for a hike.  Temps in the 20s, really only windy in the exposed areas.

 

However, in those areas, I tried to spend as little time as possible. 

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Hamilton-Mountain-123014/i-pdVwbbV/0/L/DSC_3884-L.jpg

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Hamilton-Mountain-123014/i-SGdkTJS/0/L/DSC_4137-L.jpg

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Hamilton-Mountain-123014/i-SvmFnWc/0/L/DSC_3953-L.jpg

[Parksvillewx]

Fabulous discussion. I still have a lot faith that something good is coming.

 

With the current state of the MJO, the forecast negative PNA and all other factors people have mentioned, something good has to come from this

[GHweatherChris]

A beautiful day for a hike.  Temps in the 20s, really only windy in the exposed areas.

 

However, in those areas, I tried to spend as little time as possible. 

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Hamilton-Mountain-123014/i-pdVwbbV/0/L/DSC_3884-L.jpg

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Hamilton-Mountain-123014/i-SGdkTJS/0/L/DSC_4137-L.jpg

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Hamilton-Mountain-123014/i-SvmFnWc/0/L/DSC_3953-L.jpg

Gorgeous!!

[MossMan]

Unless it will benefit us over here in the PNW, please do not post about it.

 

If it does, please explain how.

Phil, could you explain how this map might benefit us over here on the west coast.

[stuffradio]

IFred will not be happy about the convo this evening, but it is funny.

Was this a rhetorical post?

[GHweatherChris]

Was this a rhetorical post?

yep

[stuffradio]

With the current state of the MJO, the forecast negative PNA and all other factors people have mentioned, something good has to come from this

I actually read today the MJO was moving to an unfavourable state for the West coast, and it was moving to a phase more favourable to the East coast. I was trying to find the MJO image, but I'm not sure where it went.

[snow_wizard]

The analog composites continue to look great at both day 8 and day 11. Very interesting to note that was the first tool to pick up on the late Nov / early Dec event. If people want to piss and moan about Vegas getting snow instead of us or whatever that's their prerogative I guess, but I choose to focus on what is a realistic shot at seeing something worthwhile ourselves in the not too distant future. It just blows my mind that if this trough had dug slightly differently we could have had snow and everyone would have an entirely different view of things right now. The big picture is fine.

[snow_wizard]

Was this a rhetorical post?

 

Everyone is just seriously grumpy right now.

[richard mann]

Was this a rhetorical post?

 

And, this one. ?

[GHweatherChris]

The analog composites continue to look great at both day 8 and day 11. Very interesting to note that was the first tool to pick up on the late Nov / early Dec event. If people want to piss and moan about Vegas getting snow instead of us or whatever that's their prerogative I guess, but I choose to focus on what is a realistic shot at seeing something worthwhile ourselves in the not too distant future. It just blows my mind that if this trough had dug slightly differently we could have had snow and everyone would have an entirely different view of things right now. The big picture is fine.

The big picture is not fine with this one when Vegas is expecting more snow than we did.

 

I do not know why others having a different opinion than you on this bothers you. It is baffling.

[richard mann]

A beautiful day for a hike.  Temps in the 20s, really only windy in the exposed areas.

 

However, in those areas, I tried to spend as little time as possible. 

 

Dynamic. 

[stuffradio]

And, this one. ?

Is this rhetorical?

[GHweatherChris]

Everyone is just seriously grumpy right now.

Nope, just wish we had snow.  I know it is cold enough for it, but once again, nothing to show for it.

I love this dry weather in the winter, especially over warm rain daily.  Wishing for something white is different than bitching.

 

And the models themselves are not showing anything interesting, but yours and DJ's thoughts leave some hope on the overall pattern.

[Parksvillewx]

I actually read today the MJO was moving to an unfavourable state for the West coast, and it was moving to a phase more favourable to the East coast. I was trying to find the MJO image, but I'm not sure where it went.

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.ca/2014/12/january-long-range-outlook-la-nina.html

 

I posted this yesterday. Sounds quite favourable to me.

[richard mann]

Is this rhetorical?

 

More, open to perception. 

[Guest Winterdog]

Nothing rude, just truth.

 

The overall attitude is indicative of the boring pattern we are in.  

 

This cold snap was not dynamic or exciting, yes it is cold out, but not historic or snowy, other than barometric pressures.  And please do not bring up the few areas that might break a record, it wouldn't be region wide either way.

 

Nothing to be excited about.

And to top it off I have clouds moving overhead!! I can't even realize the potential of an anemic modified arctic/continental air mass when I have a chance. Pathetic!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Have a -23 in E. Oregon at Horse Ridge. That is the same spot that was -41 last December, so it is a pretty cold spot.

[MossMan]

 

Didn't I mentioned in my 5:10 PM Analysis about the blocking ridge holding stronger than modeled? Seattle NWS hints at this.... I am quite intrigued. Should point out that a new monster low around 950mb is just off Kamchatka nearing the southwestern Bering Sea. That could keep the Alaskan block much stronger. Just throwing that out there. Everything hinges on this, and downstream energy east of the dateline.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

900 PM PST TUE DEC 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...A 500 MB BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN ALASKA DOWN TO A 583 DAM CENTER AT 43N 134W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1052 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE MAIN MASS OF COLD AIR MOVES OFF INTO THE CENTRAL US GREAT PLAINS. THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SURFACE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SAGS SE AND WEAKENS FURTHER.

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TAKEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO THE BLOCKING RIDGE. AS IT MOVES EASTWARD WHILE ENTRAINING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM NORTH OF HAWAII...A RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA...MOVES INTO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE FLOW SOMEWHAT OVER THE PACIFIC AS THE BLOCK OVER ALASKA PINCHES OFF AND MOVES POLEWARD. *THIS WHOLE PROCESS TAKES PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. *WHILE THE INCOMING 00Z GFS AND GFS PARALLEL SOLUTIONS STILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS SCRIPT...THEY DO IT A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENTLY IN THAT THEY -*TRY TO KEEP MORE BLOCKING GOING OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.*- THE MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO QUITE SENSITIVE TO THE AMOUNT OF DEVELOPMENT THAT TAKES PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THE BLOCK DAYS 1-2...AND TO THE LOW THAT MOVES NORTHWARD FROM NORTH OF HAWAII ALONG 150W TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH TIME. A SPLIT AND COMPLEX NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SE OF KAMCHATKA TO NW OF WESTERN HAWAII ALSO APPEARS TO BE CAUSING SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY ISSUES. MOST OF THE PROBLEMS CAUSED BY THESE FEATURES WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL FORECAST STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

Another excellent write up by Jay! I have a great feeling that what is currently being shown in the model world is not going to be the final outcome. The first half of January might just end up being quite fun for us!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For what its worth it appears winds in W. Oregon are really starting to slack off...

[stuffradio]

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.ca/2014/12/january-long-range-outlook-la-nina.html

 

I posted this yesterday. Sounds quite favourable to me.

I know, but I saw a post from today somewhere else that is not on the forum I mentioned before to the contrary. It's the one you're already a member of.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles when they are ready....

[MossMan]

And to top it off I have clouds moving overhead!! I can't even realize the potential of an anemic modified arctic/continental air mass when I have a chance. Pathetic!!

They will probably clear before sunrise so I think we will still see a nice drop. Currently 22 here.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

There are quite a few members of this board who have deep knowledge of a variety of aspects of weather--from tasks as simple as reading a model (which most of us do well--including myself--but I don't comment much on them because of the board's snarkiness toward one another) to providing daily weather data from their personal weather station--which I personally love--others, such as phil brings an advanced weather physics understanding to this board--and there are many others who contribute weather wisdom to this board.  (DJ, snowwizard, richard, dewey, jesse, TT-Sea (too doggone Jims in here to keep track)--among others.).  Clearly, there is a substantial amount of knowledge on this forum which benefits the membership as a whole--and the whole membership has roles which have been defined on this forum.  Yet...

 

I do not understand why some of the members feel the need to act as an a**-hat to other contributing members.  For example, a couple of nights ago, I posted some raw numbers from the NAM--and a couple of people objected because it 'clutters the board'.  Fred came on and said it was fine--but it actually pissed me off enough that I remained off the board the rest of the night and amused myself with the models and my wife.

 

Being condescending at the expense of others is the quickest way to lose experience and membership on this board.  Since there's only one owner, might I suggest if you want to be condescending, go stick your head in a freaking box and provide salvation to the remainder of the board from your own personal misery.

 

Not that I'm a huge contributor, but I'm frankly getting tired of people acting like an a** at the expense of others. 

[MossMan]

I hope Snow did not down one too many Red Bulls over Christmas week trying to stay awake for every model run and end up in a caffeine and taurine induced coma...haven't seen him post at all!

[Gradient Keeper]

There are quite a few members of this board who have deep knowledge of a variety of aspects of weather--from tasks as simple as reading a model (which most of us do well--including myself--but I don't comment much on them because of the board's snarkiness toward one another) to providing daily weather data from their personal weather station--which I personally love--others, such as phil brings an advanced weather physics understanding to this board--and there are many others who contribute weather wisdom to this board.  (DJ, snowwizard, richard, dewey, jesse, TT-Sea (too doggone Jims in here to keep track)--among others.).  Clearly, there is a substantial amount of knowledge on this forum which benefits the membership as a whole--and the whole membership has roles which have been defined on this forum.  Yet...

 

I do not understand why some of the members feel the need to act as an a**-hat to other contributing members.  For example, a couple of nights ago, I posted some raw numbers from the NAM--and a couple of people objected because it 'clutters the board'.  Fred came on and said it was fine--but it actually pissed me off enough that I remained off the board the rest of the night and amused myself with the models and my wife.

 

Being condescending at the expense of others is the quickest way to lose experience and membership on this board.  Since there's only one owner, might I suggest if you want to be condescending, go stick your head in a freaking box and provide salvation to the remainder of the board from your own personal misery.

 

Not that I'm a huge contributor, but I'm frankly getting tired of people acting like an a** at the expense of others. 

I agree there is no reason to act like that period. I do not act condescending or snotty at anyone for their opinion or enthusiasm.

[Guest Winterdog]

There will be no prolonged +AO..it's just not going to happen. The next -NAO attempt will occur in the 3rd week of January. We'll lose the -PNA around the same time we lose the +NAO, unfortunately.

ZZZZZZ

[Gradient Keeper]

Anchorage NWS also mentions something of interest

--------------------------------------------------------

MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AFTER 60 HOURS. TO ADDRESS

[MikeInEverett]

Remember how Phil said that the models will disagree until about 2-3 days out? Maybe he's onto something.

[Guest Winterdog]

Remember how Phil said that the models will disagree until about 2-3 days out? Maybe he's onto something.

They almost always do that.

[MikeInEverett]

They almost always do that.

Just trying to find some hope for a potential event

[MossMan]

There are quite a few members of this board who have deep knowledge of a variety of aspects of weather--from tasks as simple as reading a model (which most of us do well--including myself--but I don't comment much on them because of the board's snarkiness toward one another) to providing daily weather data from their personal weather station--which I personally love--others, such as phil brings an advanced weather physics understanding to this board--and there are many others who contribute weather wisdom to this board. (DJ, snowwizard, richard, dewey, jesse, TT-Sea (too doggone Jims in here to keep track)--among others.). Clearly, there is a substantial amount of knowledge on this forum which benefits the membership as a whole--and the whole membership has roles which have been defined on this forum. Yet...

 

I do not understand why some of the members feel the need to act as an a**-hat to other contributing members. For example, a couple of nights ago, I posted some raw numbers from the NAM--and a couple of people objected because it 'clutters the board'. Fred came on and said it was fine--but it actually pissed me off enough that I remained off the board the rest of the night and amused myself with the models and my wife.

 

Being condescending at the expense of others is the quickest way to lose experience and membership on this board. Since there's only one owner, might I suggest if you want to be condescending, go stick your head in a freaking box and provide salvation to the remainder of the board from your own personal misery.

 

Not that I'm a huge contributor, but I'm frankly getting tired of people acting like an a** at the expense of others.

Great post and I agree, some people on here have been way too condescending and quite jerkish lately for some reason. I don't get it but hopefully people will start to relax a little, we are all on this forum because we all have a passion for weather! you would think we would all get along and share that passion in peace. I still think we should all get together some day and get drunk and share our favorite weather experiences in person!

[Gradient Keeper]

 I expect nothing, but it's worth keeping an eye on

[Guest Winterdog]

Just trying to find some hope for a potential event

Can't blame you for that, I'm hoping for some kind of kink in the wiring myself.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nothing showing up on 00z operational runs tonight.... IF anything does it won't be until tomorrow or Thursday.