MossMan Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Any EURO snow maps available yet? Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Any EURO snow maps available yet? 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, Christensen87 said: Yeah. I hate to be pessimistic, but it’s time to throw in the towel. Cold days coming up for sure, but nothing noteworthy. Mild by mid February. Let’s wait a week or two to see if anything happens toward the end of the month. We’ve seen enough for now though, no more torture! Yep seems like at this point it’s late February/first couple days of March is our last shot. This cold shot seems like it’ll just be a glancing blow at best. Hopefully we can get another push of cold air later this month further west and actually get something meaningful. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Thanks...Almost the second shade of grey...yay. 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Looks like we have quite a GFS / ECMWF war going here. Both solutions seem pretty possible given the circumstances. The ECMWF is more like the Canadian which forms another block in the 6 to 10 day period. Day 6 ECMWF seems to be following suit. Kona low. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just 0.01” here today. Disappointing trends on the models but tbh was never really sold on the full on cold shot considering the major volatility of the models recently. Hopefully we can actually get something decent in the second half of this month...still only February 4th. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Horrid run. Like even the easterlies are mostly gone. 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 For PDX this looks exactly like Mark's 7-day. King Nelsen? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: Yep seems like at this point it’s late February/first couple days of March is our last shot. This cold shot seems like it’ll just be a glancing blow at best. Hopefully we can get another push of cold air later this month further west and actually get something meaningful. This has been my biggest concern for days now is the fact that it seems nothing more than a glancing blow and when that happens, we're dealing with a razor thin margin. It'd be nice to just be completely entrench in arctic air. We'll get a clearer picture once this is within 48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Yep seems like at this point it’s late February/first couple days of March is our last shot. This cold shot seems like it’ll just be a glancing blow at best. Hopefully we can get another push of cold air later this month further west and actually get something meaningful. You guys are being kind of absurd here. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Up to 1.01” and still raining hard! Yay. 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Day 7 quite GEM-like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Why anyone would give up given the current circumstances is beyond me. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 7 quite GEM-like Didn't you hear? It's time to give up! Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Didn't you hear? It's time to give up! If the ridge edges any closer to us, we'll just see a glancing brush of cold backdoor air. Hopefully not. 12z runs tomorrow will be extremely key and crucial. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 hours ago, Omegaraptor said: Ah my bad, I was referring to where The Blob lives (which he doesn't specify, but for some reason I thought it was in the Portland area). Yes that's where I live 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Why anyone would give up given the current circumstances is beyond me. You can’t blame people for being more than a little skeptical considering the way this entire season (not to mention the last one) has gone. That EURO really was a punch in the gut— hopefully the EPS isn’t as awful. 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Feather dusting of snow for NW OR and SW WA at 180 hours with the energy dropping offshore. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 That little ULL south of the one in Alaska is what merges back into the main trough on the 00Z ECMWF... 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z GFS in 8 hours 45 minutes 12z ECMWF in 11 hours... Who's staying up???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: That little ULL south of the one on Alaska is what merges back into the main trough on the 00Z ECMWF... Eurofus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Cloud said: Eurofus. Because it came from the west... its not as cold as if the trough expanded westward over us. 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: You guys are being kind of absurd here. Let’s be honest jim if current model projections verify this won’t be anything too memorable. Could change but it hasn’t been trending very good. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Day 9'er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 At this rate, could be another 10-15 years before another winter on par with 16-17 comes around. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: At this rate, could be another 10-15 years before another winter on par with 16-17 comes around. Or next winter. Could happen any time. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Even on the EURO we have a persistent low level cold pool Gorge, Columbia Basin with strong east wind for days and days. I think this solution may be what plays out, but and I know it seems redundant, it would take very little with the handling of the offshore ridge, and cut-off lows to see a quick shift to much colder runs as models lock in inside that 72hr window. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Even on the EURO we have a persistent low level cold pool Gorge, Columbia Basin with strong east wind for days and days. I think this solution may be what plays out, but and I know it seems redundant, it would take very little with the handling of the offshore ridge, and cut-off lows to see a quick shift to much colder runs as models lock in inside that 72hr window. I’m still holding out hope for some tweaks causing major improvements! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Or next winter. Could happen any time. 18-19 was pretty unexpected...that winter was hot garbage up until February then it ended up being one of the best on record. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, MossMan said: I’m still holding out hope for some tweaks causing major improvements! I mean it could given how crazy the models have been but it seems like we’ve been very slowly trending the wrong way the past few runs. Hopefully things shift back west and we can end up with something memorable out of it somehow...but I’m not holding my breath at this point. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 One thing I’ve noticed is it’s pretty d*mn breezy out there tonight. Getting some gusts +35mph out of the SW. 1 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, MossMan said: I’m still holding out hope for some tweaks causing major improvements! Tweakers rarely have that effect. 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 anyone live in olympia? there's a plane that flies around late at night nearly every night now. how can i report it? isn't there an ordinance for this kinda stuff? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just walked the property to make sure the drainage is doing well...It is! I could go jetsking in the main trench however! WET! 1.12” on the day now, 2.51” for the month. 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 00Z EPS looks just like the ECMWF so far... here Wednesday. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Just walked the property to make sure the drainage is doing well...It is! I could go jetsking in the main trench however! WET! 1.12” on the day now, 2.51” for the month. It is downright nasty outside here... sideways rain. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 00Z EPS through day 6... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 That ULL comes in from the west and merges with the trough by day 7... 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: It is downright nasty outside here... sideways rain. It’s awful. I’m rooting for a slightly drier than average March and April. 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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