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April 2021 Observations and Discussion


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As we near the close of March, we look forward to April and the real signs of Spring that surely make it feel like we are turning the corner into warmer weather.  April is one of the fastest warming months our of the year and it appears likely that it will be in high gear for the opening week of the month.  In years past, we have seen some anomalously cold outbreaks and very quiet severe weather.  This year, however, IMO we will flip that script and severe wx will be on the rise once we get past Easter weekend.  The pattern setting up this month will feature 1st half warmth and then the LRC's signature block will show up near eastern Canada.  Those of you living closest to that block will likely see impacts of that blocking and cut-off troughs.  The plains and Upper MW may not see as much cooler wx, but I suspect a couple significant cool/cold troughs to swing through.  

Alright, who's ready for a delightful Easter weekend?  The heat will build out in the SW where I am rising ATM and SW flow aloft will push this warmth east, coupled with Chinook winds temps, will soar into the 70's/80's into the Plains/Upper MW along will bountiful sunshine!   What a treat for the holiday weekend.

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_7.png

 

Looking deeper into the month, the farther west/north you live, the better chances of more sustained warmth is my thinking...however, now the models are picking up on a stout -NAO block and there are some shenanigans showing up farther east.  I'm really curious to see how the models handle the high lat blocking which I have opined the models do not have a clue in the LR.  The LRC does point to this being a common feature as the jet really slows down to a halt.  Sign of things to come for the Summer? Probably.

1.png

 

CFSv2 temp/precip trends...

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202104.gif

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202104.gif

Let's discuss...

 

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I don’t want snow since it’s springtime around here! Took these photos today. Edit: In case you’re wondering...that’s a patch of rhubarb in the lower left of the first picture.

Hello from Eastern Montana!

We had 62/100 yesterday & today. Ended  the windy dry spell.  Solid mowing mon to wed, more  fri. Hope to catch the next low to keep bumping  april precip  toward 3 inches by months  end.

Posted Images

Hmmm, this is interesting....I usually don't pay attn to the strat warm/cold pools this time of year, but something drew me to look into them this morning.  My hunch may be onto something that by the later half of the month, we'll certainly have a west/east CONUS dynamic whereby blocking sets up on the west coast and also Greenland.  Take a peak at the last few frames at both 30mb/50mb and you can sorta get a general idea of where we will likely see ridges and troughs form 2-3 weeks from the time stamps on the animation below.

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

Northern Hemisphere 50 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

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I just want thunderstorms lol

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 26.8"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

As we near the close of March, we look forward to April and the real signs of Spring that surely make it feel like we are turning the corner into warmer weather.  April is one of the fastest warming months our of the year and it appears likely that it will be in high gear for the opening week of the month.  In years past, we have seen some anomalously cold outbreaks and very quiet severe weather.  This year, however, IMO we will flip that script and severe wx will be on the rise once we get past Easter weekend.  The pattern setting up this month will feature 1st half warmth and then the LRC's signature block will show up near eastern Canada.  Those of you living closest to that block will likely see impacts of that blocking and cut-off troughs.  The plains and Upper MW may not see as much cooler wx, but I suspect a couple significant cool/cold troughs to swing through.  

Alright, who's ready for a delightful Easter weekend?  The heat will build out in the SW where I am rising ATM and SW flow aloft will push this warmth east, coupled with Chinook winds temps, will soar into the 70's/80's into the Plains/Upper MW along will bountiful sunshine!   What a treat for the holiday weekend.

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_7.png

 

Looking deeper into the month, the farther west/north you live, the better chances of more sustained warmth is my thinking...however, now the models are picking up on a stout -NAO block and there are some shenanigans showing up farther east.  I'm really curious to see how the models handle the high lat blocking which I have opined the models do not have a clue in the LR.  The LRC does point to this being a common feature as the jet really slows down to a halt.  Sign of things to come for the Summer? Probably.

1.png

 

CFSv2 temp/precip trends...

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202104.gif

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202104.gif

Let's discuss...

 

Will make for a beautiful and what appears to be pretty typical April aside from the potential blocking ahead. It's been the same reason why I've been sketched out on going full on blowtorch through April for ALL of us, but truthfully seeing the "winter" Bering Low fade there has me leaning that way.

Any plus precip anomalies down here throughout the month should come with weakening/stalling or training t-storms and cold fronts. 

Early season drought risks evident on the high Plains but I've mentioned that before..Looks to intensify and spread over and throughout the mountain west region if I had to make a call. I said it both ways on the southwest parts of the region but I think there's a good chance of spreading drought basically from OKC/DFW/Wichita line west/SW to AZ. It's arid out there but the TX panhandle and west TX farming regions are at high risk of long-term drought. (Again in my opinion). Starting possibly this month.

FWIW, Tom, I think during the next 12 months to possibly 18 months, both the strat and the AO are very relevant.

Low solar, Niña lag, solar has a lag, volcanism, etc.... It's a good hunch you had there, I'll agree with you.

There's no doubt of a "death ridge" somewhere this summer, so a sign would be correct again in my opinion. Where is it going to set up shop later is the question?

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2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

12z GFS cooled way down for Easter weekend. Hopefully a bad run. :(

This morning's Canadian is much cooler in the extended.  Instead of surging warmth through the lakes, it dives more energy southeast and pulls cool/cold with it.  The Euro shows hints of something similar, but it is still pretty good for Iowa and points west.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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That pesky -NAO in late Spring always tends to show up at the wrong time.  Models are now in strong agreement for a monster Greenland Block to develop on Easter ...where have we seen this before?  This may cause pause for concern to those of you near the Lakes region.  The season of "back door" cold fronts off the lakes rings a bell.  Hopefully the 00z EPS is right and maintains the warmer look throughout the holiday weekend.

2.png

 

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15 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

12z GFS is back to warmer for the weekend. About 10° warmer than yesterday’s 12z. 

The Canadian has also re-reversed and no longer has the backdoor lakes cold front ruining the warm-up.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Tonight's Euro is quite warm in the extended for those living sw of the lakes.  It has five days of 70s here, with 80s in Nebraska.  The dewpoint climbs into the low 60s, too.  It's even showing ring-of-fire thunderstorms.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Tonight's Euro is quite warm in the extended for those living sw of the lakes.  It has five days of 70s here, with 80s in Nebraska.  The dewpoint climbs into the low 60s, too.  It's even showing ring-of-fire thunderstorms.

This, is a big clue heading into the Summer season for the upcoming warmer months.  I think the MW and GL's region will be on "fire" come late May into June.  Once that ridge blossoms in the west later in Spring/Early Summer...look out...meantime, enjoy the nice stretch of warmer and drier weather out there!  Easter weekend is going to feel amazing for you guys.  I'm glad to see the modeling backing off the colder Easter it had shown earlier.

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If the Euro is right, there is going to be a nice stretch of very warm weather for the heartland of the nation to open up April.  Chitown could see a string of 70's starting Easter Sunday!

 

00z Euro Easter Sunday daytime high temps...

1.png

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

If the Euro is right, there is going to be a nice stretch of very warm weather for the heartland of the nation to open up April.  Chitown could see a string of 70's starting Easter Sunday!

It also has nightly MCS activity sinking in from the nw, almost like a mid to late summer pattern.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Here's the Euro later next week... summer warmth for many.

850th.conus.png

But the GFS has other ideas.

850th.conus.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Tonight's Euro is a major change in the later period.  Instead of endless summer, a cold upper low cuts off over the lakes mid to late next week and ruins the pattern.  Last run's 80s have turned into 50s.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Tonight's Euro is a major change in the later period.  Instead of endless summer, a cold upper low cuts off over the lakes mid to late next week and ruins the pattern.  Last run's 80s have turned into 50s.

While that pesky -NAO block takes control, the ridge pumps up out here in the desert SW and we are Blazing in the Heat.  If the Euro is right, we may not only hit our 1st 90F this week but also touch the century mark early next week???  Yeesh, that'll be something...peeps out here know what that could mean down the road for Summer.  Unfortunately, what I have always been suggesting, the models bust on the blocking in the long range and given the LRC pattern, it remains clear that we have to prepare for these blocks over the course of the warmer season.  The jet is coming to a screeching halt and you can see that the impressive blocking setting up across Canada is going to create a pattern where systems track underneath it.  My personal opinion is we will see many of these cut-off troughs, esp as we get into May where its almost a lock that "May Gloom" will be showing up for periods of time in and around the GL's region.  


Meanwhile, the sun is almost above the mountain peaks to my east as I enjoy watching the sunrise.  Gosh, the beauty of sun rises out here is something else....anywho, the stretch of 70's/80's that is abound for the majority of the Sub Forum through at least Thu of next week is prime time Spring weather.  The ensembles suggest warmth to continue till next weekend so lets hope they are right. 

 

 

 

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Gary Lezak and the LRC claims that this year's pattern is 46 days. 

46 days ago was Feb. 14th, we were smack dab in the middle of record cold. Plus, starting on the 14th and ending on the 17th, KC had cloudy skies for 4 days, 2-4 inches of snow with (3) separate snow events.  It snowed on the 14th, the 15th, which had a nice ULL that tracked nicely for KC(snowed for 10 hours that day) and then again on Feb. 17th. Hell, I think Clinton that week had much more snow then KC. 

46 days later, we had 75-80 degree weather on Monday,(46 days before Monday, we had a high around 4) no storms in sight and sunny skies. The pattern forgot to cycle. We should of had an unsettled week. 

Warm start to April and then it crashes?? 12Z GFS is not happy looking after the 7th or so...several weak systems and cold temps for April. Say it ain't so. 

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I'd rather not have yet another cold April unless we can get 0.6" of snow to give us a 50" season lol. I remember last year we had a day in the upper 80s towards the beginning of the month, then we got that 5 inches of snow 10 days later. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

Gary Lezak and the LRC claims that this year's pattern is 46 days. 

46 days ago was Feb. 14th, we were smack dab in the middle of record cold. Plus, starting on the 14th and ending on the 17th, KC had cloudy skies for 4 days, 2-4 inches of snow with (3) separate snow events.  It snowed on the 14th, the 15th, which had a nice ULL that tracked nicely for KC(snowed for 10 hours that day) and then again on Feb. 17th. Hell, I think Clinton that week had much more snow then KC. 

46 days later, we had 75-80 degree weather on Monday,(46 days before Monday, we had a high around 4) no storms in sight and sunny skies. The pattern forgot to cycle. We should of had an unsettled week. 

Warm start to April and then it crashes?? 12Z GFS is not happy looking after the 7th or so...several weak systems and cold temps for April. Say it ain't so. 

 I say lets build a computer system to take into account all the variables and make a prediction of future weather.  Heck lets make it one the most advanced computers ever made, it can't be wrong then.   

Wait, what? We did that already and it still isn't any good past 10 days... 

    

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It looks like just small trace amounts of snow fell here overnight as no snow is on the snow board or the ground but there is a small trace amounts on the valleys of the roofs. At this time it is cloudy and 25 here.

With a mean temperature of 41.2 March 2021 will tie 2010 as the 8th warmest March of record so far. There was officially just a trace of snow fall and that will make March 2021 tied with 1945 as the 2nd least snowy March at GR. At Muskegon, the mean of 40.2 will make March 2021 the 7th warmest there. And with just 0.1” of snow fall that will be the 3rd lowest amount but there have been a total of 8 other years where March had no snow or just a trace. Down at Kalamazoo with a mean of 43.0 March 2021 will now be their 9th warmest of record. And over at Lansing their March mean of 41.3 will make it their 5th warmest of record. And at Lansing they only had a trace of snow fall and that will put them in 2nd place for the least amount of March snow fall.  We are now into April and there has yet to be a thunder event across west Michigan. So it looks like maybe sometime in April we will see our first flash of lightning and hear the first rumble of thunder.

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Say it So...no April fools joke but it appears there is Lake Effect snow falling in parts of NW IN and MI on the 1st day of April.  Pretty chilly back home with temps in the mid 20's...Brrr...pretty impressive cold for the Cub's Season Opener at Wrigley today where highs are barely going to get out of the 30's.  One of the colder home openers in recent memory.  I'm sure the players will be a bit chilly trying to acclimate to the colder weather.  It's been delightful out here in AZ...speaking of which, today will be the 1st day PHX will likely hit 90F+ for the season and a string of 90's are in the forecast through next Mon or Tue.  Record highs possible this weekend.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The theme over the past couple days for Week 2 of April has been cooler/wetter/active for most of the central CONUS.  Both GEFS/EPS are in agreement at this range that systems will get cut-off from the main flow and deliver an abundance of precip.  Sign of the pattern going forward?

 

1.gif

1.png

 

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Season's first signal of a "Ring of Fire" pattern setting up next Tue/Wed???  I'm seeing an interesting and potentially stormy threat setting up over the heartland.  Training storms could be a possibility as well.

 

 

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17 at KLNK this morning. It's probably the first actual hard freeze for the area outside of KLNK in almost 2 weeks. I didn't even have any frost on my car, I guess RH was too low. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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While we wait for the upper level pattern to get blocked up across N.A., its fun watching each and every model spit out a widely variable solution for next week.  I saw a tweet from @RyanMaue that the upgraded GFSv16 has done better than the Euro in terms of the 500mb forecasting.  

Quote
 
 
For the weather insiders -- forecast skill comparison of ECMWF and GFS (5-days NH z500) for the past few months. Winter season is easier than warm season for any model. GFSv16 picks up now for verification going forward.
 
1.jpg
 
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2 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

17 at KLNK this morning. It's probably the first actual hard freeze for the area outside of KLNK in almost 2 weeks. I didn't even have any frost on my car, I guess RH was too low. 

I noticed that too. Two nights ago we never rose above 45% for humidity. Something I don’t recall seeing in a long time if ever.

Last night made it up to about 70% but not until just before sunrise after  the winds had turned to the south

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The Euro weeklies are advertising a long term long wave trough to establish itself for  most of the central/eastern CONUS from the 10th all the way into early May.  The SW ridge pops around the 15th and locks for the remainder of the run and blows up the west coast ridge into mid May.  Summer is going to start off sizzling around these parts come late April/May and across Cal into the Rockies.  Gotta say, the blocking is impressive and locks.  In similar fashion, I'm seeing the CFSv2 doing the same thing.

 

Here is the next 30 days from the CFSv2...

1.png

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21 minutes ago, Tom said:

The Euro weeklies are advertising a long term long wave trough to establish itself for  most of the central/eastern CONUS from the 10th all the way into early May.  The SW ridge pops around the 15th and locks for the remainder of the run and blows up the west coast ridge into mid May.  Summer is going to start off sizzling around these parts come late April/May and across Cal into the Rockies.  Gotta say, the blocking is impressive and locks.  In similar fashion, I'm seeing the CFSv2 doing the same thing.

Here is the next 30 days from the CFSv2...

Wouldn't this pattern pretty much kill the April severe season?

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NWS Hastings disco:  

Even warmer temps are forecast for the weekend. Sat looks like an absolutely gorgeous day by early April standards with highs easily climbing into the 70s, and perhaps even low 80s S/SW zones, amidst lgt winds and plentiful sunshine. Given the lgt winds and incr April sun angle, some might even find the afternoon...dare I say, "hot". The overall warmest period of this forecast comes Sun into Mon as upper heights peak and mid/upper flow turns SWrly ahead of next upper trough. Latest forecast calls for widespread 80s each day, with some low 90s not out of the question for favored/typical warm areas. We`ll have to keep an eye on potential for record highs Easter Sun, but current forecast falls about 3 deg short. Egg hunters may need some sunscreen by aftn, which is a stark contrast from the winter gear needed in recent years.

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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Got the yard mowed. The thickness of the grass was more like May than April 1. It looks amazing for this early. 2 years ago I didn’t mow the first time until early May. 

Nice! I have kept in depth  records of lawn care in this area.  We currently  maintain  over 125 properties.  Our avg first mow is april 9th.  We started  yesterday, more tomorrow.  2013 was our earliest  start on March 30th. 2018 was our latest April 29th!! 2018 was a bitter cold and dry April.  This year was our 3rd earliest since 2008.  Last April was our best gross revenue  April ever and we plowed 8 inches of snow in mid April  2020. I suspect  2021 will up that!

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6 hours ago, westMJim said:

With temperatures during the game between 30 and 34 and with snow falling at times it was one of the coldest opening days at Detroit.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/miguel-cabrera-home-run-watch-tigers-slugger-crush-first-home-run-of-2021-mlb-season-in-a-snowstorm/

 

That's a thing of beauty. The slo mo of the hit... Pretty darn awesome.

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7 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Nice! I have kept in depth  records of lawn care in this area.  We currently  maintain  over 125 properties.  Our avg first mow is april 9th.  We started  yesterday, more tomorrow.  2013 was our earliest  start on March 30th. 2018 was our latest April 29th!! 2018 was a bitter cold and dry April.  This year was our 3rd earliest since 2008.  Last April was our best gross revenue  April ever and we plowed 8 inches of snow in mid April  2020. I suspect  2021 will up that!

I should mow the normally lush areas, but most of the grass is pretty short yet.


I’m surprised you didn’t mention 2012 when we easily had our warmest March on record, but maybe you meant 2012 instead of 2013? 2007 also had an early warmup, but maybe you weren’t in the lawn care business then. 2013 doesn’t ring any bells with me, though I can be forgetful too!

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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I bottomed out at 21° yesterday morning. I covered the hydrangeas as they are pretty vulnerable and were sprouting out sooner and better than most years since they were covered by deep snow and the soil didn’t freeze very hard. I will remove the coverings today. 
 

BTW, Happy Good Friday and Easter weekend y’all!

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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1) Chesapeake Bay effect snow. In April. Pretty awesome. 
 

2) I have to laugh how even the NWS uses Radar Scope instead of their own new multi million dollar radar that is clearly an unmitigated disaster of a product. 

D409A3AD-6A49-4E0C-94D8-6AD31743F5CB.jpeg

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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2 hours ago, Sparky said:

I should mow the normally lush areas, but most of the grass is pretty short yet.


I’m surprised you didn’t mention 2012 when we easily had our warmest March on record, but maybe you meant 2012 instead of 2013? 2007 also had an early warmup, but maybe you weren’t in the lawn care business then. 2013 doesn’t ring any bells with me, though I can be forgetful too!

Yes youre right! Went and looked our paper work. It was 2012!  My memory  failed me!  I try to to forget 2012 it was worse summer of my life!  Yes we started the business  in 2008

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15 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Wouldn't this pattern pretty much kill the April severe season?

Not necessarily, I think there will be enough warmth coming up from the south when these troughs come out of the Rockies to produce severe wx.  The storm next week is looking interesting and dynamic.  Reminds me of the system way back in early Jan I believe it was that came out of the Rockies and hit a road block and drove south while laying down some snow in NE.  Looks like your area and parts of the MW are in for some pretty heavy rains next week.

00z EPS...through next Friday

1.png

 

 

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14 hours ago, westMJim said:

With temperatures during the game between 30 and 34 and with snow falling at times it was one of the coldest opening days at Detroit.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/miguel-cabrera-home-run-watch-tigers-slugger-crush-first-home-run-of-2021-mlb-season-in-a-snowstorm/

 

That's a vivid memory nobody will ever forget.  The sharp turn around in temps for the holiday weekend is going to feel mighty nice!

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This is boring.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 26.8"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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