April 2021 Observations and Discussion

[snowstorm83 2042]

The extended sure does seem to be trending more damp and chilly. I hope we can at least get a decent amount of rain and not just several days of cloudiness. I guess there's also a slim chance we're not with snow either. Measurable snowfall occurances decrease abruptly after around April 15th, so I'd probably bet on cold rains if anything. 

[Bryan1117 960]

30 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

One line of rain just pouring down on me.  Can't be more than a few miles wide on radar.  Places east and west in the county getting nothing.  Weather is sure interesting.

We haven't seen much rain at all with this storm system at this point, which is pretty disappointing so far to say the least.

We have had a few brief showers (two with a couple claps of thunder) pass by over the last 36 hours, however not much else than that... so far only 0.05 of rain in my rain gauge storm total. 

[Sparky 1778]

I just got back from work in the pouring rain. A decent thunder shower with quite a bit of lightning. 

[Sparky 1778]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I heard a couple dull rumbles this morning as a decent line slid to the east of Cedar Rapids.  I only received some sprinkles.

Same here this morning with everything just missing.

[Hawkeye 4600]

Finally, we just got our first thunderstorm of the year.... pretty decent lightning and thunder with heavy rain.

[OttumwaSnomow 106]

Got a quick 57/100 here this eve, was much needed.  Since feb 4th not a super amount of precip here. 2.6 in march and todays.  Snow  and ice melt kept it damp. But long periods of no rain and wind its fairly dry for mid April

[snowstorm83 2042]

Finally getting a nice dose of rain this evening. I was hesitant that we would get anything at all 

[OmahaSnowFan 1387]

Up to .63” of rain so far today along with .07” yesterday so .70” event total through 1120p.

[Clinton 4429]

7 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Up to .63” of rain so far today along with .07” yesterday so .70” event total through 1120p.

Got exactly the same amount of rain as you.  1/4 to 1/2 inch more possible today.

[Hawkeye 4600]

My rain total is 0.69".

[westMJim 1863]

Yesterdays official high of 80 at Muskegon set a new record for the date at Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo and Lansing the high of 80 was the 2^nd warmest for the date the. The high of 79 was also the 2^nd warmest for the date there.  The overnight low here was 60 and it looks like the overnight low at GRR was 57. At this time it is 62 with a few sprinkles here.

 

[Sparky 1778]

I ended up with 0.88” rainfall total. 0.21” after midnight helped boost my total a little. Lawns and hay and rye fields are really green, plus the apricot trees are in full bloom since Tuesday.

Now it’s looking like below average or cool temperatures, especially next week and beyond. The 4” soil temperatures were at near record levels of around the low 60°s yesterday! The thick snow cover prevented deep frost and gave it an early boost, but soil temperature is going back down.

[Tom 16887]

I hope everyone was able to enjoy the record stretch of warmer weather, esp back home where Chicago saw back to back 80's for only the 4th time in history in early April.

 

 

Now, the ugly truth on how weather can turn and become bipolar in April which we have seen in recent years.  The climate models never saw this coming but there is a significant cold shot coming down the central Plains next week as the North American hemispheric pattern blocks up to a creeping crawl.  It appears likely that a lobe of the Polar Air gripping Alaska and ushering record cold up north, will come make a visit into the lower 48.

First it was Europe's turn, now it is the U.S..... https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/04/07/record-cold-europe-alaska/

@CentralNebWeather, this may be your last chance of seeing snow for the year...

 

Big time snows heading for the Rockies...let's not forget the N GL's and Upper MW...

 

Meantime, a spectacular looking GL's cutter the works will bring bountiful rains for the GL's region this weekend..

 

 

The weather pattern is surely not boring and I'm geeking over here seeing what is transpiring around the globe.  While I continue to bake out here in the low/mid 90's, the wx forecasters are calling for a "cool down" next week into the upper 80's...LOL

 

 

[Bryan1117 960]

9 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Up to .63” of rain so far today along with .07” yesterday so .70” event total through 1120p.

Finally got into some decent rain showers and even had a little bit of thunder, during the evening and overnight here.  

Went from only 0.05" in the rain gauge yesterday afternoon, to over 1" at 9am this morning - with probably another 0.25 to 0.50" to come. This didn't turn out too bad after all, even after missing out on the storms the other night. 

[OmahaSnowFan 1387]

3 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Finally got into some decent rain showers and even had a little bit of thunder, during the evening and overnight here.  

Went from only 0.05" in the rain gauge yesterday afternoon, to over 1" at 9am this morning - with probably another 0.25 to 0.50" to come. This didn't turn out too bad after all, even after missing out on the storms the other night. 

Yep, I’m up to 1.3” of rain now from the last couple of days. Definitely will be mowing this weekend!

[james1976 3976]

57 when I got to work. Down to 50 now. Might be a while before I see 70s again. 

[Tom 16887]

The Fri/Sat system is looking very dynamic which would support issuing a storm thread if this were Winter...what do you guys think???  This thing is wrapping up into a potent storm.  No snow with this but quite the wind/rain and severe wx threat down south.  We don't see systems like these very often in early April.

[CentralNebWeather 4717]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

I hope everyone was able to enjoy the record stretch of warmer weather, esp back home where Chicago saw back to back 80's for only the 4th time in history in early April.

 

 

Now, the ugly truth on how weather can turn and become bipolar in April which we have seen in recent years.  The climate models never saw this coming but there is a significant cold shot coming down the central Plains next week as the North American hemispheric pattern blocks up to a creeping crawl.  It appears likely that a lobe of the Polar Air gripping Alaska and ushering record cold up north, will come make a visit into the lower 48.

First it was Europe's turn, now it is the U.S..... https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/04/07/record-cold-europe-alaska/

@CentralNebWeather, this may be your last chance of seeing snow for the year...

 

Big time snows heading for the Rockies...let's not forget the N GL's and Upper MW...

 

Meantime, a spectacular looking GL's cutter the works will bring bountiful rains for the GL's region this weekend..

 

 

The weather pattern is surely not boring and I'm geeking over here seeing what is transpiring around the globe.  While I continue to bake out here in the low/mid 90's, the wx forecasters are calling for a "cool down" next week into the upper 80's...LOL

 

 

To be honest, I hadn't been really looking at snow chances around here.  That would be a nice way to end the snow season.

[CentralNebWeather 4717]

0z Euro.  

[Hawkeye 4600]

There was an EF-0 tornado last evening in far sw Cedar Rapids, near Menards.  It damaged some mobile homes.

[westMJim 1863]

5 hours ago, westMJim said:

Yesterdays official high of 80 at Muskegon set a new record for the date at Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo and Lansing the high of 80 was the 2^nd warmest for the date the. The high of 79 was also the 2^nd warmest for the date there.  The overnight low here was 60 and it looks like the overnight low at GRR was 57. At this time it is 62 with a few sprinkles here.

 

That high of 79 should read the high of 79 at Holland was the 2nd warmest for the date.

[westMJim 1863]

With clouds and light rain now moving in it looks like most locations have reached their high for today. The reading of 74 at Grand Rapids ties the record high for the date last set in 1931. The reading of 74 at Muskegon is good for 2^nd place. At Holland their 72 is good for 3^rd place and at Lansing their high of 72 is good for a 5^th place tie. At this time it is 72 here with some light rain falling. I will update if it gets warmer later in the day but at this time it dose not look like that will happen.

 

 

[snowstorm83 2042]

We’ve been getting steady moderate/heavy rain all afternoon in Lincoln. Wind chill is around 40 as well. Just 1.5 hrs to the west Grand Island is 66 and sunny. You don’t see that too often, usually it’s the other way around as a cold front is approaching.

[OmahaSnowFan 1387]

the deformation band has been stationary basically all day which means it has stayed about 20 miles west of me. Only had .02" of rain during the day today.

[Sparky 1778]

7 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yep, I’m up to 1.3” of rain now from the last couple of days. Definitely will be mowing this weekend!

I got the rider fired up and mowed a little today, but the grass is to wet and clumps up. 

[Sparky 1778]

I don’t want snow since it’s springtime around here!

Took these photos today.

Edit: In case you’re wondering...that’s a patch of rhubarb in the lower left of the first picture.

[Sparky 1778]

5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

There was an EF-0 tornado last evening in far sw Cedar Rapids, near Menards.  It damaged some mobile homes.

Saw this on Twitter. I expect you saw it here or NWS DVN website.

 

[Sparky 1778]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

The Fri/Sat system is looking very dynamic which would support issuing a storm thread if this were Winter...what do you guys think???  This thing is wrapping up into a potent storm.  No snow with this but quite the wind/rain and severe wx threat down south.  We don't see systems like these very often in early April.

It’s fine with me if you start a thread.

I noticed a fish, then I saw someone else on Twitter also did. Haha 

 

[Sparky 1778]

A serious looking hook wnw. of Waco, Tx. and it was only severe warned!

 

[snowstorm83 2042]

With how the radar has looked I’m not too surprised to see NWS Valley was bullseyed.

[OttumwaSnomow 106]

We had 62/100 yesterday & today. Ended  the windy dry spell.  Solid mowing mon to wed, more  fri. Hope to catch the next low to keep bumping  april precip  toward 3 inches by months  end.

[Hawkeye 4600]

Models are shifting the wrapped-up Saturday system farther nw.  They now have eastern Iowa in the rain and wind.

[OKwx2k4 4221]

Drought risks building in the old "Dust Bowl" region seemingly worse than I had assumed. Plus the GLs region. Lots of areas abnormally dry with nearly 50% experiencing abnormally dry weather.

No doubt a La Niña hallmark. 

 

 

[Clinton 4429]

Looking like a rough day in the south.  I wouldn't be to surprised if the ENH was expanded north later into the Memphis area.

[Tom 16887]

9 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

We had 62/100 yesterday & today. Ended  the windy dry spell.  Solid mowing mon to wed, more  fri. Hope to catch the next low to keep bumping  april precip  toward 3 inches by months  end.

I always love the smell of a freshly mowed lawn.  Great job and it looks vibrant and healthy!

[Tom 16887]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Looking like a rough day in the south.  I wouldn't be to surprised if the ENH was expanded north later into the Memphis area.

It may be a while till the severe pattern shift back farther north into our Sub.  I'm thinking later parts of May...hbu?

[Clinton 4429]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

It may be a while till the severe pattern shift back farther north into our Sub.  I'm thinking later parts of May...hbu?

I think last few days of April and the first few days of may could produce.  Signature storm in the pattern will be returning.  I think may will be a very rough month for severe weather for many of us.

[Tom 16887]

Started a multi day storm thread/threat...

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/7864-49-414-gls-cutter/&tab=comments#comment-723264

[Tom 16887]

What in the world is going on in the Strat???  The last and final warming event for the season is looking to end with a bang way up north in our atmosphere across the Pole.  I don't recall seeing this happen so late in the season and will likely play a big role towards the end of the month.  #SolarMin

 

Both GEFS/EPS are displacing the Polar Vortex into NE Canada or thereabouts.  Boy, what an interesting weather pattern.

Parts of the S MW may need to watch out for late season frosts/freeze's...

 

 

[Tom 16887]

Wild stuff here...

 

Extreme *all-time cold* in Alaska early this morning. Bettles just fell to -38°F breaking the April monthly record low of -37°F (April 7, 1986), records since 1951. Saturday morning will also be in the -30s.

 

 

[Clinton 4429]

12z GFS and esp the CMC showing record breaking cold in the extended.  Hope that doesn't verify!

[CentralNebWeather 4717]

Nice batch of rain moving through.  Another cool day and next week looks interesting with colder weather and multiple rain and some snow risks.

[OmahaSnowFan 1387]

Ended up with 1.44" storm total.

Crazy precip pattern here lately. Since the beginning of March we have only had 3 precip events, i.e. rather boring. Each storm system though has been a multi day event, so we've had 6.38" of rain since the beginning of March.

[Tom 16887]

This is going to turn the wx pattern pretty ugly for a large part of the lower 48 to finish off the month...esp the northern/eastern parts of our Sub....signs of the southern ridge will pop in very late April into May.  @Clinton, that's where I think the S Plains and possibly your region could benefit, or rather, score some severe wx from this pattern.  Otherwise, the remainder of our members I don't see any good chances for severe wx until later in May.  The final SSW warming event coupled with the blocking setting up and surrounding North American over the next few weeks is wild.  Lock in the central CONUS cool pool in the extended.  

 

00z EPS...cross polar flow...I think we've seen this before...Week 2 trending cooler...

 

 

 

 

[CentralNebWeather 4717]

0z Euro has snow on my doorstep. Next week looks rather interesting around here. 

[Sparky 1778]

I thought this was interesting!

 

[snowstorm83 2042]

Parts of ND and MT where's it's been a terrible season could do well with this storm. I feel like that's kind of a big "F you", I like having most of seasonal snow in Nov-March. It looks like another 40s and rain for eastern Nebraska. 

[bud2380 3520]

Euro 850 anomalies show below to much below normal for the next 10 days with continuous reinforcing shots of cold air.

[Tom 16887]

Not just once, but there could very well be several visitations of lobes of very cold air coming down off the N Pole/Polar Vortex.  Ummm, ya...it looks like nature isn't going to "flip the script" this April and looking like it wants to dial up some record cold...again...this time its the 2021 version.  

Late season Freezes are showing up in the extended on basically all the models now...it'll be a shock to my sisters system after staying here with us in AZ for the last couple weeks.

 

 

Looking back a couple weeks ago, the climate models had a decent looking April into May, but that has since turned very "grey"...really though, they all missed on the Greenland Block which has been a signature part of this years LRC.  Then you add the tanking -EPO, +PNA and the unusual late season behavior of the Polar Vortex...well, not a pretty picture to say the least.  I will say, that this warm season is going to be quite interesting as troughs block up this summer.  Based on the trends in the LR modeling and how this pattern is evolving, one can conceive that as we get through the "spring shoulder season" the North American 500mb pattern is showing signs of amplification.

 

 

[FAR_Weather 5220]

Hello from Eastern Montana!