Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like 00z NAM crept a little farther north this run... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 any increase up tis way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 any increase up tis wayYes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleather Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 The SREF Plume means for JOT have been declining for the last few runs. For Joliet the mean accumulation is now down to 5.5" from a high of 8". The QPF is about the same so that implies the ratios are getting worse.... Maybe a result of the projections shifting northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM is a bit furthur north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 The SREF Plume means for JOT have been declining for the last few runs. For Joliet the mean accumulation is now down to 5.5" from a high of 8". The QPF is about the same so that implies the ratios are getting worse.... Maybe a result of the projections shifting northward Agree. NAM becoming a bit warmer. A bit concerned about ratios and any furthur north trend a mix even up this way ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like a solid 3-6" snowfall for MKE. Well, that sucks the one day I don't want snow, it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Agree. NAM becoming a bit warmer. A bit concerned about ratios and any furthur north trend a mix even up this way ORD.Do really think it will hit above freezing at ORD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z NAM going with roughly 12/13:1 ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like a solid 3-6" snowfall for MKE. Well, that sucks the one day I don't want snow, it snows. SE counties might need warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 come on north trend..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Does look better for E IA/S WI. I would not be surprised if MKE ends up going WSW with southern counties. Overall, still a low end solid winter storm warning criteria at least. Looks good for 6-8 inches with lollipop 8+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ord probably under 10:1 ratios this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I would love that run. Hope that run has a little truth to that at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ord probably under 10:1 ratios this run Nah. Considering alot of it will fall during overnight and early morning hrs. It may start as 15:1 and end around 10:1 ratio as SLP moves into IL/IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Somewhere on the lines of a 20-30 mile north shift seems quite possible. Almost all of our storms this winter have had n/nw shifts, even within 24 hours. I can't remember any storms that have shifted south within the final days this winter. I don't think ratios will be in our favor, especially with a N shift. But I do think mixing will be a minor problem a peru to Joliet line. Its been nice to see this storm shape up after some model mayhem a couple days ago. Attached is Skiiling's post on his fb page: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ord probably under 10:1 ratios this run Probably not. Widespread 8" totals. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeah but come on I dont see us getting 32 degrees or above until end of storm when warm air nose rips northward into IL and IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ord probably under 10:1 ratios this runlol no way is that less than 10:1. 850's around -4 degrees Celsius for the whole event. More like 12:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 So long the track is through C IL 850's should be good enough from I-80 on north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Half will fall between 11pm-6am anyways at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 4km NAM a little south. MKX is going to need a watch for some counties. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 DVN says American models have all kinds of problems and way too moist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Skilling going with widespread 5-10" totals. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 thinking that south of chicago could get 6 to 10 inches maybe a little higher if it shifts back south 10 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 according to Skilling's map I would be down for 8" here...I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z GFS still showing a solid of 8-9 inches from Chicago to Lansing, MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z GFS...a little south compared to the 00z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z GFS...a little south compared to the 00z NAM... Just a little something to chew on; LOT's update indicated the models making a north shift, but had the low possibly moving through Gary. Funny to note that last winter, we had the December 2012 storm that tracked through Chicago leave us with mostly rain. Now we have a weak low that may track through Gary, normally a solid track, but the highest totals will be just south. Kind of unlucky if this pans out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 skilling showed that one model puts kankakee 9 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I have 5-9" for my area, St. Charles with LOT's point click. I think the Southward shift will be marginal, but it makes a difference. I still think heaviest band of snow will set up between I-80 and I-88, I am just hoping it's juicy enough and the ratios stay about the same. We shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 I just realized that this storm is coming in exactly 31 days to the tee from our NYE storm that dumped roughly 8-10" of snow and 3 days later another 13" (at ORD, 17" IMBY). It's kind of ironic that this could happen again in an almost exact 30 day cycle. Anyhow, if we do in fact get 20" or more of snow from Feb 1-8, I don't recall experiencing a winter to have 2 separate weeks producing 20"+ of snow and back to back 10" snowstorms which may happen 2x this winter. Fascinating if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 i have 8 to 10 for kankakee and for my area sorce lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 LOT snowfall map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 What time should the flakes start falling? Looks like it may be coming in slowing according to RAP 03Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Snow should start flying lightly around 10:00pm or so... Here is the 00z GGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Got the right thread this time. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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