Super Bowl Weekend Major Snowstorm

[tbone8]

Winter Storm Warning

Statement as of 3:08 AM CST on January 31, 2015

...Winter Storm Warning in effect from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 4 am EST /3 am CST/ Monday...

The National Weather Service in northern Indiana has issued a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow and blowing snow...which is in effect from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 4 am EST /3 am CST/ Monday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* Timing...snow will begin this evening...spreading from west to east. The snow will continue Sunday...then end Sunday night from west to east. The period of heaviest snow is expected from Sunday morning into early Sunday evening.

* Snow accumulations...7 to 11 inches with locally higher amounts.

* Impacts...periods of heavy snow with blowing and drifting snow making travel difficult or impossible with some unplowed roads becoming impassible.

[Money]

6z GFS is even farther north than the 6z NAM.

 

A bit wetter as well

[Money]

8-10 inch WWA? Alright.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
310 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

MIZ071>074-311615-
/O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0006.150201T0000Z-150202T1100Z/
VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH HAVEN...KALAMAZOO...
BATTLE CREEK...JACKSON
310 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SUNDAY.

* TOTAL SNOWFALL 8 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

* NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT CREATING BLOWING AND
DRIFTING CONDITIONS.

[BigDizBliz420]

LOT says as much as 1/3 of qpf will be rain or non accumulating snow.

[Grizzcoat]

I do think the early phase (without cold air / snow cover present) is going to present problems for rain before changing to snow. Even here in C.IA that is something I'am looking at. Might eat away at snow totals. Might.

[Snowshoe]

Hopefully I'll have something to shovel. 6z GFS trying to spread the love north. It's just been one of those agonizing years where we get snow but miss the heavy snow just north or south.

 

Glad to see the "patience" of you southern posters be rewarded. No worries I'll get mine eventually.

 

Except for Wednesday the models have handled this really well, especially the Canadian. They can't all be wrong,right? Maybe they finally figured this winter out?

[Seahawkfan]

Omg Can all the model's be wrong? I die if we got burned got hosed at this point considering they have Winterstorm warning up. Still a little nervous though. Hope this goes according the way the models are saying right now we all differently deserve this after suffering though this crappie winter to this point.

[Seahawkfan]

Currently 27 Everything looking good still nervous with the way this winter has been. Fingers crossed nothing goes terribly wrong at the last minute.

[Seahawkfan]

Now if my Seahawks win the Superbowl that be the icing on the cake. It be awesome to win back to back Superbowl titles. Go 12

[Scott26]

Omg Can all the model's be wrong? I die if we got burned got hosed at this point considering they have Winterstorm warning up. Still a little nervous though. Hope this goes according the way the models are saying right now we all differently deserve this after suffering though this crappie winter to this point.

I doubt they're and I think you can breath a sigh of relief. Water vapor imagery already looks great and you can tell that a significant drying trend isn't going to happen. Also, the track is completely set and the snow swath is so wide that any shifts won't really matter. The wait is finally over for this boards significant snow storm. 

[gosaints]

Don't see anyway Chicago doesn't cash in

[Seahawkfan]

I agree Everything looks great. Checking radar looks to be already Snowing in Omaha.

[Snowlover76]

6Z NAM absolutely hammers us. 10-14" OMA/LNK. We are talking insane snowfall rates here. Could be some convection if I'm correct. Can't post maps, but looks like a beauty for Nebraska/Iowa

NWS is saying only 2-4" here.

[Geos]

SREF plume mean now 14.7" here, over 11" at MKE now. MKX might need to add a few more counties to the warning if trends continue.

 

[WBadgersW]

Currently sitting under a WWA with 4-8" expected. I just need another small shift North to be golden.

[GDR]

[Madtown]

well then in some famous words......GAME ON.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

about dang time

 

Lol, that's funny stuff after last year's near historic winter, and would've probably been if ORD didn't lowball totals, you kicked much of Southern Wisconsin's butt in terms of snow totals, and they normally do better.

[BigDizBliz420]

Sref up to 17

[WBadgersW]

Sref avg is up to 15" for MKE and 13" IMBY. I Still think it's a bit overdone.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Sref avg is up to 15" for MKE and 13" IMBY. I Still think it's a bit overdone.

 

I agree, but the average going up is a good sign for a continued north trend.

[WBadgersW]

I agree, but the average going up is a good sign for a continued north trend.

Yeah, this might end up like the Groundhogs day blizzard where we were on the Northern fringe, but at the last second it moved ever so slightly North and gave us some action. Time will tell, but I'm liking the trend.

[gosaints]

Nam actually looks a little south

[BigDizBliz420]

noise level stuff

[gosaints]

noise level stuff

It's not much but don't know if its just noise either

[Scott26]

Nam actually looks a little south

Only significant for the northern cutoff. You look good for 4+ still though. Chicago still gets slammed with 12-14 on this run.

[gosaints]

Only significant for the northern cutoff. You look good for 4+ still though. Chicago still gets slammed with 12-14 on this run.

Ya i think 4 inch max here. Chicago is good to go either way. Hell a 75 mile shift wouldn't kill chicago

[WBadgersW]

Nam still looks good for Sheboygan and South

[Madtown]

Nothing can change...I gave the game on call.

[Tom]

Sometimes that psychology works, and is part of the reason I prefer to lean to the negative side (I also feel if I'm negative enough, I get rid of the inner weenie and expectations become less).

I think MKE is going to cash in big with Lehs snowfall.  You guys normally do good when the wind is out of the NE, especially since the winds will be off the lake for such a long period of time.  The only good thing you can take from the warm weather we had in December, is that the lake waters are still so warm and this will just add to snowfall totals.

 

Skilling's RPM model nailed the GHD Blizzard and also the east coast storm.  Look at the snowfall totals that are now just showing up in their latest model run.  Some 16-20" totals in Lake/Kenosha county! Cook gets 12-16" which is sizing up to the SREF's.  Great trends and we are getting closer to the event.

[NEJeremy]

03UTC SREF mean for Omaha was at 11.08", 09UTC mean jumped to 13.92"!! Almost a 3" jump! I know this is overdone but again nice to see the totals still going higher and higher. We're in a winter weather advisory for 4-7" but discussion said we could be upgraded and also talked about possible blizzard conditions tomorrow. Changeover timing is going to be key.

 

BTW that precip heading towards us is going to be rain. We're sitting at 38 degrees right now

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015013112/nam4km_asnow_us_16.png

[Tom]

Parts of NE/IA also looks to get nailed with 12-16" totals....

[WBadgersW]

I absolutely hate the Hires Nam. I can never tell the difference between the colors.

[Snowlover76]

03UTC SREF mean for Omaha was at 11.08", 09UTC mean jumped to 13.92"!! Almost a 3" jump! I know this is overdone but again nice to see the totals still going higher and higher. We're in a winter weather advisory for 4-7" but discussion said we could be upgraded and also talked about possible blizzard conditions tomorrow. Changeover timing is going to be key.

 

BTW that precip heading towards us is going to be rain. We're sitting at 38 degrees right now

Pretty sure whatever fell in the AM was supposed to be liquid.

[Jaycee]

03UTC SREF mean for Omaha was at 11.08", 09UTC mean jumped to 13.92"!! Almost a 3" jump! I know this is overdone but again nice to see the totals still going higher and higher. We're in a winter weather advisory for 4-7" but discussion said we could be upgraded and also talked about possible blizzard conditions tomorrow. Changeover timing is going to be key.

 

BTW that precip heading towards us is going to be rain. We're sitting at 38 degrees right now

HRRR has 5" by the end of the run and still snowing.

[NEJeremy]

Pretty sure whatever fell in the AM was supposed to be liquid.

Yeah I know, someone here said there was snow already heading towards us, so was just letting them know it's rain although have heard reports of snow mixing in by Gretna

[Tom]

How quickly things are changing for the better for our NE folks...man, the LRC certainly has done good with this storm.  It's funny that earlier this week Gary Lezak was doubting this storm would phase and become what it is turning out to be.  He should have paid attention to the -AO!

[Snowlover76]

Yeah I know, someone here said there was snow already heading towards us, so was just letting them know it's rain although have heard reports of snow mixing in by Gretna

Snowing here in Lincoln.

[Jaycee]

Snowing here in Lincoln.

I'm near the 27th street interstate section. Had a brief burst of some heavier snow but has since died down. temps at 34. Thinking were in a good spot. Just praying the transition occurs soon. Our totals would be incredible if this were all snow