Super Bowl Weekend Major Snowstorm

[Money]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/snowaccum/SnowMap_MKX.png

[james1976]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_composite.gif

[BigDizBliz420]

Radar looks kind of showery

[Tom]

Tom, whats your call for me in Metro Detroit?

Based what I've seen so far, 12-16" is darn good for your area.  GFS painted more, but lets see if tonight's runs continue that trend.

 

South side of Detroit might be the epicenter.

[Tom]

18z NAM...it's really starting to see the Lehs precip...

[james1976]

Radar is awesome. I love watching this thing unfold...and its on a weekend!

[Tom]

18z WRF...

[Madtown]

La crosse has more snow in its pinpoint than I do south of Madison...lol what is mkx doing

[Snowlover76]

18z WRF...

that looks awesome.  best part is that its additional on top of what we have gotten so far.

 

I would say we have about .8 to 1.10" of precip left here in Lincoln 

[WBadgersW]

If the GFS comes in like the NAM, MKE really needs to upgrade the WWA advisory to a WSW.

[Maxim]

http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif

[winterfreak]

What a shame looking at the precipitation on radar. Wasting all of it on rain.

[WI AOS Student Tanner]

http://www.midwestweather.org/2015/01/the-storm-of-season-to-strike-with.html

[Snowlover76]

Looks like OAX is sticking with the current forecast. 

[Money]

18z GFS is coming even more north than 12z GFS.

[Jaycee]

Looks like OAX is sticking with the current forecast. 

Mehh. It freaks me out man haha... Snowing like crazy out right now. Accumulating on streets and sidewalks. Incredibly good sign. They stated that it would turn back to rain/snow mix, but it never did. Totals may need to be upped IMO

[Tony]

The radar looks like a classic crippling winter storm. Very slow movement with tremendous amount of moisture feed.

[NEJeremy]

Looks like OAX is sticking with the current forecast. 

I noticed at 130ish they updated the WWA to say 5-8" now instead of 4-7" at least for Omaha. I think we'll be on the high end of those totals.

[Sven]

Omaha NWS....oh they are interesting...

[Money]

Chicago with 16-18 or so on 18z GFS. All of MKE CWA is 6+ with 7-8 near here. Keeps going up as the event nears

[WBadgersW]

18z GFS is coming even more north than 12z GFS.

Trends have been our friend lately

[Snowlover76]

Mehh. It freaks me out man haha... Snowing like crazy out right now. Accumulating on streets and sidewalks. Incredibly good sign. They stated that it would turn back to rain/snow mix, but it never did. Totals may need to be upped IMO

I think the totals that the Hastings WFO has for their eastern zones are more than what Omaha has for their eastern zones. 

[Sven]

I think the totals that the Hastings WFO has for their eastern zones are more than what Omaha has for their eastern zones. 

Hell, the Hasting's AFD includes what time the plows go out, coffee of the week, even a detailed and complete forecast discussion! Wow, how absurd!

[james1976]

DMX has bumped up their snowfall graph a little too. Unbelievable how this is unfolding.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dmx/fxc/WebForecastSnowfall.png

[Snowlover76]

Hell, the Hasting's AFD includes what time the plows go out, coffee of the week, even a detailed and complete forecast discussion! Wow, how absurd!

the Omaha guys put out a new AFD twice a day. 

[Sven]

OAX NWS Final call it would appear. http://i.imgur.com/BjkujaK.png

[shakjen]

Steady mist falling here for the past 30 minutes. (I-80 & I-39)

[Sven]

the Omaha guys put out a new AFD twice a day. 

(Off topic, I know one last post Mod's) I don't how long you have been following them, but I remember two winter's ago a winter storm similar to this and the last update before things really got going was 2 paragraphs...if you can discuss an entire 7 day forecast in 2 paragraphs it probably isn't very complete. Wasn't impressed with their's today at all, just a synoptic setup a brief paragraph. 

[FV-Mike]

Looks like it is switching over to snow in Des moines

[Scott26]

Has anybody noticed how the low is 4 mb or so stronger as it goes through southern Illinois on the GFS? I wonder why there is such a discrepancy in strength right before the storm. Also the added strength produces 45+ mph gusts in some spots for northern Illinois. If that verified a blizzard warning would definitely be needed.

[tbone8]

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM

CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ MONDAY...
 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
 

 * HEAVY SNOW...10 TO 15 INCHES STORM TOTAL. THE PERIOD OF

   HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY.
 

 * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO

   SUNDAY NIGHT.

 

[6789]

LOT increased to 12-14" for most of the lakeside counties. NW IN onward looks to get hammered, I wouldn't be surprised to see some 18" amounts. Seems like a general 10-14" across the whole area.

[FV-Mike]

LOT increased to 12-14" for most of the lakeside counties. NW IN onward looks to get hammered, I wouldn't be surprised to see some 18" amounts. Seems like a general 10-14" across the whole area.

Just saw that. 10-14 for Chicagoland

[Bryan1117]

Snowfall rates really increasing here in Omaha, got a nice slushy coating this morning and early this afternoon - then a small break where it turned back to some flurries and light rain. Now its all snow and coming down moderately, with heavy snow building to the southwest.

 

Finally glad we have something interesting weather wise to talk about... I enjoyed the 50-60 degree weather over the last couple of weeks but I have been wishing for a decent snowstorm... and it looks like we have it!

 

My call for Omaha tonight is higher than the NWS forecast - I am calling for 8-10" with isolated higher amounts of near a foot just to our east across the Missouri River in Western Iowa.

[Scott26]

 

THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

 

THE MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NIGHT IS BY FAR THE PRIMARY FOCUS...WITH THE FOLLOWING MAIN

CONCERNS:

-POSSIBILITY OF PTYPE ISSUES ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO EARLY

SUNDAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS

OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF MY AREA.

-PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF TO 2/3RDS

OF MY AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

-POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER

NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. THIS COULD

PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WITH WHITE OUT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS

OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

 

AT THIS TIME WE HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A BLIZZARD

WARNING FOR ANY OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO

CONSIDER ONE IF THE WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK AS STRONG. ONLY CHANCES

TO GOING HEADLINES WAS TO EXTEND THROUGH 06 UTC MONDAY FOR MY

WESTERN CWA AND THROUGH 12 UTC MONDAY FOR MY EASTERN CWA.

 

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY

IMPRESSIVE PLUMB OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS

THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS DOWN

STREAM OF A SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH. IN FACT...THIS MORNINGS

SOUNDING OUT OF KOAX INDICATED PWATS UP AROUND 0.64 INCHES...WHICH

IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MEANWHILE...OUR MAIN

WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEXT DAY IN AND HALF...IS NOW NOTED AS A

POTENT SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS

MONTANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ACCESS TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF THIS

MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE REGION.

 

CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE

AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE SHIFTS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING WARM

ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE

PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE REGION BY MID

EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PRECIP TYPES LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE...AT

LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLY

SOUTH OF PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER LINE. WARMER AIR INITIALLY...WILL

LIKELY ALLOW THIS PRECIP TO START AS SOME LIGHT RAIN...AND THIS

INITIAL PERIOD OF RAIN COULD GET FARTHER NORTH THEN THE ABOVE

MENTIONED LINE. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS

EVENING SURFACE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL

SWITCH OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAGS

SOUTHWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HOWEVER...WELL SOUTH OF THE

INTERSTATE...WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLOWER TO

ERODE...POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE RAIN THAN SNOW THIS EVENING. AS

SUCH...CONFIDENCE ACROSS MY SOUTHERN CWA IS LOW WITH TIMING OF

TRANSITION TO SNOW.

 

SNOW SHOULD FALL AT A GOOD RATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF MY

AREA AS A BAND OF 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN

ILLINOIS. THIS SNOWFALL TONIGHT ALONE COULD PRODUCE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF

SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

 

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MUCH MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM

DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER

SHORT WAVE TOUGH FORECAST TO SHARPEN OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

AND THUS RESULTING IN MORE ROBUST DYNAMICS SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONG

LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS A STRONGER SOLUTION WILL NOT ONLY

SUPPORT MORE SNOWFALL...BUT ALSO STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. AS

SUCH...WIND SPEEDS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE...POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG

ENOUGH TO RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. I WILL NOT

UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT IT MAY NEED TO

BE CONSIDERED IF A STRONGER SOLUTION WITH A DEEPER SURFACE SYSTEM

MATERIALIZES. EITHER WAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE A HIGH IMPACT STORM FOR

MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 850 MB LOW IS SET TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL

ILLINOIS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THIS AGAIN COULD PUT THE SNOW TO

RAIN LINE FAIRLY CLOSE TO MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...POSSIBLY

LEADING TO A SHARPE SNOW ACCUMULATION GRADIENT OVER MY FAR SOUTH...OR

JUST OUTSIDE OF MY AREA TO THE SOUTH.

 

THE TRACK OF THE 850 AND 700 MB LOWS WOULD SUGGEST PERIODS OF HEAVY

SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWESTERN INDIANA THROUGH

THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP

WITHIN A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE. AS SUCH SNOW RATES IN EXCESS

OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES TOMORROW. SNOW

SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF

ACROSS MY WESTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...SNOWFALL MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MY EASTERN

CWA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS CONTINUING. AS

MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...INVERSION HEIGHTS DO NOT GET

VERY HIGH...BUT THE FACT THAT THEY WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE

DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MINOR

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS INTO MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS...I HAVE

MADE THE CHANGES HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE TO THE GOING WINTER STORM WARNING.

 

TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO TOP OUT NEAR A FOOT IN MANY

AREAS...WITH SOME POSSIBLY GETTING A COUPLE MORE INCHES THAN THIS.

IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH

CENTRAL ILLINOIS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS BECOMING HIGHER IS GETTING

HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TO 3/4 OF MY AREA.

CONFIDENCE ON TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IS A BIT LOWER ACROSS MY CENTRAL

ILLINOIS COUNTIES...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MIXING ISSUES.

 

KJB

LOT may go with a blizzard warning if the stronger solutions with the low are correct.

[6789]

Just saw that. 10-14 for Chicagoland

Yep. Looks like LOT is buying into the LES starting to crank tomorrow night. WSW until 6 a.m. Monday. Highest totals for point and click are 16" that would be crazy!

[dubuque473]

DVN has me at 10 now...

[Madtown]

Mkx just downplaying the whole event.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/lot/wx/File.png

[Tom]

U-N-B-E-L-E-I-V-A-B-L-E.....18z keeps getting stronger and snowier.  8 days ago to the day the 00z GGEM painted almost a carbon copy 18z GFS snowfall map, just a tad farther south than what the GFS is currently showing.  Here we are just about at the onset of this major storm and we are about to get hit with 1-2' of snow in the region.  You couldn't have dreamt it up any better.

 

I'm very curious to see what the latest RPM model is showing.  I'd tune into WGN news @ 5pm.  If anyone can, please post those maps as I am heading to the gym now.