February 2015 PNW Discussion

[TT-SEA]

No, but this could be slightly interesting. 00z is significantly further West.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20150226/00/gfs_namer_132_1000_500_thick_s.gif

 

Maybe.  Would be cold enough... might be a c-zone of some sort.   I was looking at Monday.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Yeah, the SSW was key...reverses the mass transfer gradient and lowers the tropical tropopause igniting/perturbing the tropical troposphere (~90% of SSWings are followed by major MJO waves).

 

I got the Pacific/tropical forcings right, but the strat didn't cooperate, so we were left with a +NAM/+PNA under a -QBO waveguide..ugly for the western USA.

 

I have a couple of questions for you, Phil:

 

1. Have we basically been in this same overall weather regime since January 2013? It surely seems to me that we have due to the repetitious ridging pattern ad-nauseum.

 

2. Is this a very rare pattern?  CA has been setting records for warmth and extreme dryness during this entire time period since January 2013. There doesn't seem to be a precedent for this pattern since record keeping began, but it doesn't mean that it hasn't happened sometime in the more-distant past.

 

I have never seen a pattern so stuck like this over such a long time period. This observation applies more to CA than it does the PNW, although this year there has been quite ridgy up and down the entire West Coast.

[richard mann]

-
I'm seeing the potential for both of the main GFS model depictions above (for the 2nd and 3rd for 12z respectively.) to hold up. 
 
.. Not too far out at least certainly. And possible in line with what I'm seeing, projected more myself, where looked at colder air's part played potentially where considering the scenario. @
 
— More essentially, new and fresh more primary cold's having begun to spread south again more from earlier on the 27th. This with during the main narrower timeframe looked at here, that cold's having begun to move at a more stepped pace east.

[bainbridgekid]

Chilly

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015022600/images_d2/slp.126.0000.gif

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015022600/images_d2/slp.135.0000.gif

[richard mann]

-

.. Decent potential for retrograde, through to the 2nd, as I see things. Also in line with what I'd pointed to above.

 

— Plenty of cold still sitting East of the main divided. Obviously.

[ShawniganLake]

Chilly

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015022600/images_d2/slp.126.0000.gif

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015022600/images_d2/slp.135.0000.gif

-10C 850mb temps down to the BC south coast on this run. Chilly indeed.

[ShawniganLake]

SEA, on the other hand, is working on their 5th record warm month since 2009. And PDX their 5th since 2004.

 

Quite different than the rural stations.

Shawnigan lake is a rural station in the PNW and 2014 was the warmest year on record. Or are we strictly talking about monthly records?

[stuffradio]

Unfortunately, I do not want really chilly air masses anymore. Fruit crops are at a point now where there will be hundreds of thousands if not millions in crop damage if it happens.

[bainbridgekid]

Unfortunately, I do not want really chilly air masses anymore. Fruit crops are at a point now where there will be hundreds of thousands if not millions in crop damage if it happens.

Did the late February 2011 blast cause any significant crop damage?

 

Highs in the 20's and lows in the teens in the last few days of the month, which is much colder than anything we might see next week.

 

I do remember wondering about the flowering trees that had already bloomed around WWU, but they all seemed to bounce back fine.

[ShawniganLake]

Unfortunately, I do not want really chilly air masses anymore. Fruit crops are at a point now where there will be hundreds of thousands if not millions in crop damage if it happens.

Are there many large scale commercial orchards west of the Cascades?

[bainbridgekid]

Euro is pretty chilly next Tuesday.

 

-8 to PDX, -10 to SEA and -12 to BLI.

 

Granted in early March we'd still make it into the low-mid 40's during the day with any sunshine.

[Phil]

I have a couple of questions for you, Phil:

 

1. Have we basically been in this same overall weather regime since January 2013? It surely seems to me that we have due to the repetitious ridging pattern ad-nauseum.

 

2. Is this a very rare pattern? CA has been setting records for warmth and extreme dryness during this entire time period since January 2013. There doesn't seem to be a precedent for this pattern since record keeping began, but it doesn't mean that it hasn't happened sometime in the more-distant past.

 

I have never seen a pattern so stuck like this over such a long time period. This observation applies more to CA than it does the PNW, although this year there has been quite ridgy up and down the entire West Coast.

1) Yes, at least on the large scale, with a gradual trend towards a +NAM.

 

2) It's not a rare pattern, but it's rare to see it persist so long. Even in 1993-94, it was a 4-5 month deal, and that was Pinatubo influenced.

 

Interesting times we live in. When this snaps back (and it will)..oh boy. Gonna be a rough ride for both warmists and persistence forecasters..at least in my opinion.

[stuffradio]

Did the late February 2011 blast cause any significant crop damage?

 

Highs in the 20's and lows in the teens in the last few days of the month, which is much colder than anything we might see next week.

 

I do remember wondering about the flowering trees that had already bloomed around WWU, but they all seemed to bounce back fine.

 

Are there many large scale commercial orchards west of the Cascades?

Apparently 95% of Blueberries grown in Canada are grown in the Fraser Valley. They are ~3 weeks ahead of schedule right now with vulnerable buds. Some flowers were already beginning to open. If it's cold and windy, Bees won't necessarily come to pollinate. There was just a news article the last couple days stating farmers are worried about it.

[ShawniganLake]

Apparently 95% of Blueberries grown in Canada are grown in the Fraser Valley. They are ~3 weeks ahead of schedule right now with vulnerable buds. Some flowers were already beginning to open. If it's cold and windy, Bees won't necessarily come to pollinate. There was just a news article the last couple days stating farmers are worried about it.

Hmm, I hadn't thought about berry crops.  There are thousands of acres of Blueberries and raspberries in the BC lower mainland. 

[Phil]

OT, but it looks like we're going to get our coldest February on record, according to the GCA numbers. Even the bigger city stations like KNYC and KBWI look to finish between 1st and 4th, despite the UHI.

 

Crazy how bipolar the pattern has been.

[richard mann]

1) Yes, at least on the large scale, with a gradual trend towards a +NAM. 

2) It's not a rare pattern, but it's rare to see it persist so long. Even in 1993-94, it was a 4-5 month deal, and that was Pinatubo influenced. Interesting times we live in.

 

When this snaps back (and it will)..oh boy. Gonna be a rough ride for both warmists and persistence forecasters.... .

 

Don't neglect the general rhetoric potential now.   ... It's half the fun where dabbling in general conjecture, Right. ? 

 

.. If I may Dan. The pattern "persistence" is fairly obviously the product of where main and more primary cold has been setting up more strongly for the past two years. The "Polar Vortex" the main focus last year. This year more "Buffalo" earlier, "Boston" more recently; along with also the more recent near to record percentage of "The Great Lakes" having been caused to freeze over.

 

... Over the Greater Canadian Shield. Pretty much all of Central and Eastern Canada. East of the Canadian Rockies. This year added to even more so, with much of what cold might have worked to consolidate better over Northern Asia, having gravitated more toward the main greater cold storage region to our NE to boot. Having shot over the pole, having bypassed Alaska most of the time. Nothing much as far as more substantial cold upstream to the NW through the WNW.  @ @

 

.. Cold more primary drops south, more east, "blocks" the general flow of the atmosphere more eastward. Main wintertime warmth as a general result, having been being focused more here in the west. Moisture, needing to be offset by cold from more upstream, contributing to main precip., as far south as to you, and even more northward where I am and further to the CA / OR border, only having been able to enter into the greater Far and more South Western arena and picture on special occasions. 

 

Why. (?) Where considering all of the above - if more gradually where looking at the more basic positioning of main strongholds of more primary cold north more across the board, .. the variability of colder air's both movement and distribution, both more latitudinal and longitudinal. 

 

Even with main cold more primary sitting where it is / has been, I'm thinking that the pattern looked at more over-all is currently evolving, changing to one more conducive to providing more precip. to CA, even perhaps still "some" chance for "snow" more both more North, and East, i.e. the Cascades and Sierras. Just how much, being the main question. Of course.

[BLI snowman]

00z GFS ensembles were the coldest yet, FWIW....

[ShawniganLake]

00z GFS ensembles were the coldest yet, FWIW....

Cold and dry seems like a pretty solid bet at this point. Wouldn't surprise me to see something else show up in the models between the 10th and 15th or so

[bainbridgekid]

00z GFS ensembles were the coldest yet, FWIW....

I'll say.

 

[Phil]

Yeah, I remember all the SSW stuff. Just wasn't clear he meant that the PV breakdown due to SSW was a factor that actually influenced ENSO.

It more or less what the breakdown represents..a reversal in mass transport. It took me awhile to even begin to understand the tropical-stratospheric link, too. Of course it's one of many factors, but it's a big one.

 

The conventional wisdom back in the 90s/early 00s was that the tropics were the sole initiator, but we've now figured out that it's more of a push-pull/intertwined relationship that overlaps on various frequencies (timescales). In other words, harder than ever to figure out.

[richard mann]

...

 

Yep. I double-checked.  Male / Age 33. ... 

 

— I don't know about "you", but I just don't see enough little smiley-faced emoticons with their tongues sticking out, where tuning into this forum. 

 

More basic meaning, .... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blowing a raspberry

 

.. If we all met in a nice discussion room more somewhere, to actually talk about different weather and climate ideas more, I would "definitely" like seeing a big one of these, somewhere in it tacked up and prominently displayed. This or at very least, different main emoticons of a more portable size, made available, more generally, that we could reach for and hold up to better emphasize some of the ideas that we might have in mind to bring up.

 

"One day".

[Phil]

— I don't know about "you", but I just don't see enough little smiley-faced emoticons with their tongue's sticking out, where tuning into this forum. "Raspberry", Right. ?

 

More basic meaning, .... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blowing a raspberry

 

.. If we were all in a nice discussion "room" more somewhere, actually talking about different weather and climate ideas more, I would "definitely" like seeing a big one of these somewhere in it, tacked up and prominently displayed. One day perhaps.

This is an online weather forum, not an academic meeting.

 

Lighten up.

[richard mann]

 
"Have a Nice Day" 
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smiley

.. Sucked then, sucks now.  

— All others, having stemmed from it.(?) More so.  

 

(Wherever. And in whatever context.)

[Dan the Weatherman]

1) Yes, at least on the large scale, with a gradual trend towards a +NAM.

 

2) It's not a rare pattern, but it's rare to see it persist so long. Even in 1993-94, it was a 4-5 month deal, and that was Pinatubo influenced.

 

Interesting times we live in. When this snaps back (and it will)..oh boy. Gonna be a rough ride for both warmists and persistence forecasters..at least in my opinion.

Hopefully it doesn't last much longer and a new pattern emerges soon!

[HighlandExperience]

6z looked nice towards the middle of March, especially for cooler mountain weather. No more epic torching at least

[MossMan]

Looks like the PNA will be going deeper than it has all fall and winter so far...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

[Jesse]

12z was pretty pathetic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z was pretty pathetic.

 

Canadian was actually worse. :/

[stuffradio]

Canadian was actually worse. :/

Who are you calling Canadian!?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Who are you calling Canadian!?

You babe

[stuffradio]

You babe

kk thanks

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian would actually be better... because the 12Z GFS goes back to warm and wet.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

[TT-SEA]

GFS MOS for Seattle shows highs in the 50s and lows above freezing all of next week.

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KSEA

 

Guessing there will not be much damage to budding vegetation.

[Jesse]

Balmy day. 53/47 at PDX so far.

 

So much for this "cooler pattern" pulling down the monthly average!

[Deweydog]

Balmy day. 53/47 at PDX so far.

 

So much for this "cooler pattern" pulling down the monthly average!

Clouds.

 

Fascinating.

[Jesse]

Clouds.

 

Fascinating.

General consensus here was that the final few days of the month would significantly mitigate the record warmth.

 

Fascinating.

[Deweydog]

General consensus here was that the final few days of the month would significantly mitigate the record warmth.

 

Fascinating.

Colorado is just one of 50 states. Hardly a consensus.

 

#coldbias

[Jesse]

Colorado is just one of 50 states. Hardly a consensus.

 

#coldbias

I guess I should've just said flatiron.

[Skagit Weather]

Hmmm...Not sure that any of the ski areas are really going to benefit that much from the coming couple of days.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015022612/images_d3/ww_snow72.72.0000.gif

[epiceast]

Hmmm...Not sure that any of the ski areas are really going to benefit that much from the coming couple of days.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015022612/images_d3/ww_snow72.72.0000.gif

WP & crystal