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I've been so busy lately that I completely forgot about a May thread.  Let's keep it short and sweet....is there an April repeat??  A very warm start to the month is expected this weekend but then the pesky Greenland block appears to lock in for the forseeable future.  How will this impact our weather among other drivers?  An active storm track will likely continue through the heartland and hopefully bring much needed moisture to those around the MW/GL's region where drought conditions are expanding.

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If the 00z EPS is right, the upcoming 2 weeks may bring a big dent into the dry conditions...

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I’m in Lamar Colorado for my nephews graduation. Got to witness  a gorgeous supercell thunderstorm last night! First supercell of this year, and it came right to me here in Lamar! Was tornado warned f

Here are some more short vids and pics from my trip.  Thursday and Friday were the best days weather wise.  Spending time along the ocean is such a treat when HP is over the region in the spring.  The

1.11" is my rain total.  I'm satisfied with that.

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The JMA weeklies from yesterday spell a similar theme for the "merry month of May"...very wet ag belt which could end up being too much of a good thing???  I know farmers are anxious about getting out and beginning planting, however, the cooler conditions coming next week and quite active weather, it may hold things up.  Thoughts?

Temp/Precip...

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My long standing call was for a cooler overall month of May but I did expect a surge of summer warmth/heat to build in from the west late in May in to early June.  Well, I'm glad to see the Euro Weeklies advertise this potential.  Hopefully it holds on to the idea, but it has busted bad in the LR, esp the upcoming 2 week period of cooler weather that is forthcoming.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

The JMA weeklies from yesterday spell a similar theme for the "merry month of May"...very wet ag belt which could end up being too much of a good thing???  I know farmers are anxious about getting out and beginning planting, however, the cooler conditions coming next week and quite active weather, it may hold things up.  Thoughts?

Temp/Precip...

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Planting is going full speed here.  Many that I know started on Monday the 26th, so this is day 5 of the spring plant.  Quite a bit done in my county.

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8 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Planting is going full speed here.  Many that I know started on Monday the 26th, so this is day 5 of the spring plant.  Quite a bit done in my county.

That’s good to hear.   Hopefully the weather cooperates.  Would love to see a banner year for crop production this year.

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The weather over the next 10 days (minus the next 2 days) looks very cool.  Many days models are showing highs in the 50s for large portions of the area.  That's disappointing, I was hoping we would at least have temperatures near normal in May.  Normal highs for May 1st in Iowa City and Cedar Rapids is 66 degrees.  By May 11th, Iowa City's average high is 70. The 12z GFS shows the high in Iowa City on May 11th to be in the upper 40s to around 50.  

 

 

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Welcome to May!  The last month of met Spring and it will feel like it this weekend for literally all of us on here.  Taking a look at the regional temps this morning, the Sub is practically experiencing two seasons as some might have the A/C on this morning while others may have the furnace!

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As the locals typically say, today is the epitome of "May Gray".  Unfortunately, the marine layer has blown in off the cooler waters of the PAC ocean as westerly winds have taken over.  The current water temp here is chilly 61F.  As a result, it is a much different scene this morning compared to yesterday.  Friday was a gorgeous day at the beach with perfect temps in the upper 70's and sunny skies.  I'll post some pics/vids in a later post.

 

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As Bud mentioned, quite a cool pattern setting up for a lot of members next week.  I would not want to be up north where the 00z Euro is predicting several Sub 30F nights across the North woods later next week and weekend.

CPC Outlook for the month...

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On 4/30/2021 at 11:55 AM, CentralNebWeather said:

Planting is going full speed here.  Many that I know started on Monday the 26th, so this is day 5 of the spring plant.  Quite a bit done in my county.

Planting is in full swing in Iowa as well.

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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Another hot, windy day on the way to the low 90s. I just can't believe that I'm still in the same location I was in February ☠️

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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55 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Another hot, windy day on the way to the low 90s. I just can't believe that I'm still in the same location I was in February ☠️

Basically 50” of snow this winter and it quit snowing February 20th🤷‍♂️

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The overnight low here at my house was a warm 63 and the official overnight low at GRR was a summer like 65. If it stays above 62 at the airport until midnight that 65 would set a new warmest minimum for May 2nd at Grand Rapids. There was just 0.01" of rain fall here yesterday and overnight as several periods of sprinkles came thru. At this time it is partly cloudy and 66 here and the last reading at GRR was 67.

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Trimmed at my relatives house this morning after church. Thought it felt humid. Just checked and dew is 59. Yesterday it was in the 30’s. Storms with potentially 1-2” of rain tonight then cloudy, windy and cool tomorrow. 

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Probably the most humid day of the season so far. Checked and we have a dew of 63 with a temp of 77.

You can see when the moisture really surged back into the area last night after 10p.

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Uh oh, I'm pretty sure the last map I saw had LNK over 1" 🥴

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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Very cool week ahead. today will be the only day this week that exceeds 70 degrees.  Not a lot of rain in the forecast the best chance of rain looks to be early tomorrow morning.

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I had a wonderful time in So Cal during our short road trip.  The climate in the region is quite diverse in a rather short distance if you've never been down there, esp during the Spring "shoulder" season.  Interestingly, one of the mets down there made a comment on why the waves were higher than normal.  There were a lot of surfers out during our stay riding 3-5 foot swells.  As you know, Winter is just getting going down in the southern hemisphere near Australia and they call it the "Roaring 40's".  Powerful winter storms produced huge waves and they flow into the western shores of Cali during the spring.  This is the first time I've heard of it before and it makes a lot of sense.

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Sunday was a chilly, breezy, cloudy and cool day as we departed Carlsbad up through Temecula (wine country) onto the I-10 east bound into Palm Springs.  Right before we approached Palm springs, the cloud deck disappeared and howling NW/W developed causing dust to obscure viz and looked like a ground blizzard.  I've never driven through one before and this was a first for me.  I'll post a couple vids but they don't do justice from what I experienced it firsthand.  There was a Wind Advisory out for gusts up to 55-65 mph right between the towering mountains on both sides of I-10 heading into the valley of Palm Desert when the "squeeze effect" occurs. 

 

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Here are some more short vids and pics from my trip.  Thursday and Friday were the best days weather wise.  Spending time along the ocean is such a treat when HP is over the region in the spring.  The locals say June-Oct is prime time as one would expect to see.  The only issue I have with Cali living, is the traffic and pricy gas ($4.20/ gal regular)!  It ain’t cheap living there.

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53 degrees with low clouds and north winds gusting to 26 MPH.  Wind chill in the lower 40's.  What a change from the previous 3 days of 80's pushing 90 and humid on Sunday. Temps looks to be mainly 50's, 60's and some lower 70's for the foreseeable future.  Any planting is stopped due to the heavy rains of last night.

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This wave is moving quicker and more cloudiness than expected is lowering any severe risk here and probably lower rainfall 😟. But at least rainfall rates are higher than they appear on radar with higher atmospheric moisture. Currently some rain falling here.

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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Radar is looking like much of the rain will pass north and south of Cedar Rapids. ☹️

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Heavy rain just missing south for now though it keeps developing to the sw. Some light thunder at times.

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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Sparky is either getting heavy rain or is about to.  I'll be lucky to get more than a few hundreds as the rain area moving through CR is crap.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just as the brightest reds moved in it weakened and it appears the heavier cores scraped by just nw. and south. Still had good downpours for awhile.

 

 I just checked my gauges and was pleasantly surprised to see nearly 1” fell so far. Crazy robin had pooped into 3 of my gauges before it rained so was glad I had cleaned them, but noticed dirt on one again from muddy feet from hopping in the garden. Sure enough that gauge had less rain because it sat there while it rained. Max. rainfall rates around 3.5” at times (which isn’t real high), and the wind gusted over 30 mph.

Edited by Sparky
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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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We had a nice downpour here on the SW side of CR.  The airport will update their rain totals in about 10 minutes or so, I'm curious to see what we got.  

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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This is from todays NWS discussion
"   
WHILE THIS MAY NOT BE NOTICED MY MANY, THE MJO IS 3 STANDARD   
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL AND IN QUAD 1. THIS IS A STRONG COLD SIGNAL  
FOR MICHIGAN. IT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS INTO QUAD 2 BY EARLY   
NEXT WEEK, BUT GUESS WHAT, QUAD 2 IS COLD FOR US TOO. IT HAS BEEN   
MY EXPERIENCE THAT IF THE MODELS DO NOT MATCH THE MJO FORECAST,   
THE MODELS WILL BE WRONG. THE BOTTOM LINE IS EXPECT AT LEAST 2   
WEEKS OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
  
THIS MEANS FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE  
OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. WE ALREADY EXPECT FROST OVER THE NORTHERN  
SECTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT WE MAY HAVE A HARD FREEZE.  
WHILE WE DO NOT CLEARLY HAVE THIS IN OUR GRIDS YET, BUT I STRONGLY  
BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN NONE THE LESS. SO, IF THIS IS A PROBLEM   
FOR WHAT YOU, DO PLEASE CONSIDER THIS A REAL PROBLEM."
It looks like the start of May has a good chance of being on the cool side to say the least

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The rain was a bit heavier than radar suggested.  It also filled in just a bit as it passed through, so I ended up with a decent 0.25".  Iowa City experienced a heavy cell that dumped over an inch.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Only .13" at the CR Airport and only 0.20" at my house. :( Iowa City got very lucky to pickup a quick inch.  Sure would have liked to get more than that.  Was hoping for a half inch or more. 

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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My sister who lives approximately 7 to 8 miles se. of here said they got 2”!  I kinda got screwed for my community, but thankful for what we got though! Always seems to rain more a few miles se. during dry periods.

Storms appear weaker currently and were near max intensity earlier.

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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I recorded just 0.07" of rain for yesterday and overnight. So all in all not much in the way of rain fall. Even with the little rain we have had this spring the grass is still nice and green at this time. If it stay dry that will not be the case. The official high for today looks to have been 62 and that was at 1AM. At this time it is cloudy here and 48. With highs for the next several days in the mid to upper 50's it will be about 10° below average. The average hH/L for today is 66/44 and by Friday it is 67/45. 

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PHX missed another opportunity to reach the Century mark last weekend due to clouds that rolled in...but...we have another chance this Wed/Thu so let's see if that happens.  The avg high today is already up to 91F and we are heading into the mid 90's today with CALM winds.  Gosh, it has been very windy out here this Spring so to have calmer winds it really is a treat .  Most of the storms that have hit the region have been dry and tracked north of here into the mountains and the end result is just windy conditions.  In any event, the W/SW will remain warm to hot while the rest of you east of the Rockies are locked into a long duration cool spell.  Speaking of which, as @westMJimmentioned yesterday, several days of AOB 32F temps are in the forecast for parts of lower MI/WI/U.P. and ND through the weekend.

 

Mother's Day weekend is looking cool and wet for some of the MW region...

 

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Looking out into Week 2, there is a hopeful opportunity for some warmth AND severe weather across the central plains/MW region during the 15th/16th period.  The EPO is forecast to pop into + territory along with a -PNA in tandem.  This should produce favorable conditions for a more summer-like pattern but my concern is it will be transient.  Gotta take the good with the bad this month as it appears more than likely that the blocking pattern will continue throughout this month.

In other news, my family out east across the "pond"' in Poland just experienced one of the coldest April's since the 90's.  In fact, due to the strong -NAO pattern last month, most of Europe was in the doldrums of late winter conditions.  It now looks like most of the U.S. will get a taste of what they just experienced this coming week.

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