Phil Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Thats called melting in the sun... it was above freezing there. I have seen small amounts of snow evaporate when its 15 degrees... it called melting at 36. You clearly don't understand the physics of snowmelt. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Seattle nws discussion a good read this evening.THE NEXT SYSTEM WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE DEVELOPING WARMOCCLUSION THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 990 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 44N141W. THE NEW 00Z GFS SHOWS WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE SPREADING INTOTHE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR SATURDAY EVENING...THEN NORTHWARD TO INCLUDETHE SEATTLE-TACOMA-EVERETT METRO AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTOSUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND THE 00Z WRFGFS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OFWASHINGTON SHOWS 2-5 INCAND HES OF SNOW ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND INTHE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...1-3 INCHES FOR THE SEATTLE METRO AREA.THIS LINES UP SOMEWHAT WITH WHAT THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS SHOWINGEARLIER TODAY. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HOLDSHEAVIER PRECIPITATION BACK WITH THE WARMER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT.MODELS ARE JUMPING AROUND...AND THE 12Z ECMWF DID NOT EVEN SHOW THISSATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA. THE 00ZNAM12 KEEPS PRECIPITATION FAR SOUTH - BUT THAT MODEL PERFORMED QUITEPOORLY OVER NW OREGON AND FAR SW WA TODAY. TO TOP OFF UNCERTAINTYTONIGHT...THE 00Z CANADIAN KEEPS EASTERLY PRES GRADIENTS RATHERSTRONG THRU SUN AND SUN EVENING AND SHOWS SUB FREEZING BOUNDARYLAYER TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE WARMING ALOFT SUNDAYEVENING...FREEZING RAIN IN THE SEATTLE METRO? WILL AWAIT THEINCOMING 00Z ECMWF BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY ISHIGH DESPITE THE TIMEFRAME BECOMING RATHER SHORT. ALBRECHT Interesting. do not buy those quite yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KMartin Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 I dont' buy the metro freezing rain yet but I do buy this area for the most probable in need of an Ice Storm Warning so I hope they do not sit on this - - http://www.theweatherspace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2714g-1000x666.jpg Quote <p>Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br> TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br><br> SCWXA Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/">http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/</a><br> SCWXA Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather">https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather</a><br><br> TWS Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.theweatherspace.com/">http://www.theweatherspace.com/</a><br> TWS Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork">https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork</a></p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 I can dream can't I? It would be amazing if this amount of precipitation fell and the warm-up occurred slower than forecast. If only it would stay below freezing till 4 am Monday! http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014020800/images_d2/ww_pcp24.60.0000.gif Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Satellite suggests the cloud shield is shrinking. My view of the stars confirms the satellite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Im going to issue a heavy snow warning for the hood canal area from late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. 3 to 8 inches. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hard rain warning might be needed for next week. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 1.5 inches or so and that might be generous. The warning definitely didn't verify for the metro area. 4.5" here in Tigard. Verified pretty well down here. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Im going to issue a heavy snow warning for the hood canal area from late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. 3 to 8 inches. And I'm going to go over there and melt your snow with a Bic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 It is amazing that SnowWizard has been basically absent. I think us not getting any snow here is hitting him pretty hard. It is not like him not to post more. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KMartin Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 It is amazing that SnowWizard has been basically absent. I think us not getting any snow here is hitting him pretty hard. It is not like him not to post more.Hopefully not too hard when "my life is over" comes to mind. I haven't seen him post since I returned. Quote <p>Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br> TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br><br> SCWXA Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/">http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/</a><br> SCWXA Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather">https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather</a><br><br> TWS Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.theweatherspace.com/">http://www.theweatherspace.com/</a><br> TWS Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork">https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork</a></p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 I dont' buy the metro freezing rain yet but I do buy this area for the most probable in need of an Ice Storm Warning so I hope they do not sit on this - - http://www.theweatherspace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2714g-1000x666.jpgdo you buy the 1 to 3 inches for the seattle metro area? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KMartin Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 do you buy the 1 to 3 inches for the seattle metro area?Yeah looks like that's the amount I would go for later Saturday into Sunday morning before changing over to all rain. Quote <p>Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br> TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br><br> SCWXA Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/">http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/</a><br> SCWXA Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather">https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather</a><br><br> TWS Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.theweatherspace.com/">http://www.theweatherspace.com/</a><br> TWS Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork">https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork</a></p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah looks like that's the amount I would go for later Saturday into Sunday morning before changing over to all rain.Is it too early for timing? I will be in marrysville until 11pm Sat and it looks like the drive back to bothell will be snowy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think the system for tomorrow will be 3-4 hours ahead of scheduled(progged by models). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KMartin Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Is it too early for timing? I will be in marrysville until 11pm Sat and it looks like the drive back to bothell will be snowy?If I had to do or die now and not wait for morning (not a smart move on my part) I'd say snowy then. Quote <p>Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br> TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br><br> SCWXA Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/">http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/</a><br> SCWXA Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather">https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather</a><br><br> TWS Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.theweatherspace.com/">http://www.theweatherspace.com/</a><br> TWS Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork">https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork</a></p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 00Z ECMWF says precip will be very late tomorrow night and very light... and conditions are pretty marginal in Seattle at the time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KMartin Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think at this point the CMC should be used. Quote <p>Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br> TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br><br> SCWXA Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/">http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/</a><br> SCWXA Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather">https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather</a><br><br> TWS Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.theweatherspace.com/">http://www.theweatherspace.com/</a><br> TWS Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork">https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork</a></p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think at this point the CMC should be used. Just out of curiosity, what do you feel gives the CMC more weight in this situation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KMartin Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Just out of curiosity, what do you feel gives the CMC more weight in this situation? The EC at this time yesterday for today's pattern showed Seattle getting snow by now and it also did not show the Ice Storm Event for the Willamette Valley tomorrow. It was poor in handling the system ... GFS did pretty well at 0z for today and tonight's actual outlook so GFS would actually be good to follow for tomorrow. NAM is real poor overall ... CMC is in-line with the GFS and did good at handling today and tonight so far at 0z the previous day. So based on that I'm just following the trend. Quote <p>Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br> TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br><br> SCWXA Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/">http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/</a><br> SCWXA Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather">https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather</a><br><br> TWS Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.theweatherspace.com/">http://www.theweatherspace.com/</a><br> TWS Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork">https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork</a></p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KMartin Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 HRRR and RUC are initializing poorly to what the GFS and CMC say should happen tomorrow. So I'd just keep with both the GFS/CMC and let the HRRR/RUC play catch up. Quote <p>Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br> TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br><br> SCWXA Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/">http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/</a><br> SCWXA Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather">https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather</a><br><br> TWS Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.theweatherspace.com/">http://www.theweatherspace.com/</a><br> TWS Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork">https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork</a></p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex_Snakes Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 00Z ECMWF says precip will be very late tomorrow night and very light... and conditions are pretty marginal in Seattle at the time.I am already above freezing in Tacoma. I have a tough time believing we will see snow now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Agreed, I am up to 34 here and am having hard time seeing snow or much of it. YES I know the air is dry but ultimately I just want all of this over with. I am not looking forward to an ice storm, or a rapid snow to rain transition which is what we are looking at, at this point. Okay, I feel better now. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 I am already above freezing in Tacoma. I have a tough time believing we will see snow now. temps are dropping again and Dew points are currently in the teens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 I am already above freezing in Tacoma. I have a tough time believing we will see snow now.Yup and a lot more locations around the sound are either just below or very NEAR freezing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's another cold one here tonight, 20F with a DP of 14F after a high of 33. Looking for a bit of snow tomorrow night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Here are images from yesterday. The first was when the snow first started after 8 AM. Then the other was around 6 pm after 6" of snow. 7.3" total yesterday, 1/2" today. Tomorrow afternoon and evening is looking quite a bit more moist! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Heavy beer drinking warning just issued for parts of western Washington. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 What a ******* dissapointment tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Heavy beer drinking warning just issued for parts of western Washington.Duly noted, and accomplished. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 One thing is for sure. This is the most cold air I have ever seen around here and the least amount of snow I've ever seen here. But its it over yet. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 One thing is for sure. This is the most cold air I have ever seen around here and the least amount of snow I've ever seen here. But its it over yet.Hmmmm, you have not lived here long then? Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 But its it over yet.huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hmmmm, you have not lived here long then?40 years. Never can remember 2 arctic blasts in one season with little to no snow. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 huh?Not over yet. Phone makes wrong words. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Not over yet. Phone makes wrong words.ahh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 PDX NWS is saying 2-4 inches overnight? I see no possible way for that to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Had a great afternoon and evening in the snow. Probably added around 4 inches of new snow. It's 24 right now and the town looks like Alaska. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Down to 22F currently with a dp of 16. If I am lucky tonight might be my coldest night. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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