snow maniac Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Not when there is a low. Your thinking of onshore flow. This is different youngster.you mean soon to be grandpa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 According to new GFS precip type chart south sound is rain at hour 90, there is a bit of ice at the coast and hour 96 is where we torchhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_090_precip_p60.gifThis should be mostly snow form Seattle and to the north..This map does not specifically show Ice on the coast or snow from Seattle north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Zooming in it looks like the low will travel right through Olympia.20 miles south longitude wise and I will be in business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 20 miles south longitude wise and I will be in business.What is your location? GH = Gig Harbor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 WRF is out to 48 hrs... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 WRF is out to 48 hrs... wa_snow24.48.0000.gifPathetic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Looks like the most recent WRF is dryer overall, but still has respectable snow totals. Unfortunately it does tend to overdo precipitation, so I guess we will just have to wait and see. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022100/images_d2/ww_snow48.72.0000.gif Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 PatheticThis is a evolving system, meaning, as the low moves the precip will changeover to snow accordingly. The WRF has consistently showed nothing here till the tail end of the low moving south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 This map does not specifically show Ice on the coast or snow from Seattle north. FWIW, there is a new feature on the GFS showing dominant precipitation type. I have no idea if it is accurate, especially for the northwest, but they just implemented this recently http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20140221%2000%20UTC¶m=200_wnd_ht%2C500_vort_ht%2C1000_500_thick%2C850_temp_ht&fourpan=yes&imageSize=&ps=modelGuidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20140221%2000%20UTC¶m=dom_precip_type&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=model EDIT: not sure if the link works right, but I copied and pasted it from the NCEP site. Just pick "Dominant precipitation type" from the parameters instead of 850 temps, or whatever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Looks like the most recent WRF is dryer overall, but still has respectable snow totals. Unfortunately it does tend to overdo precipitation, so I guess we will just have to wait and see. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022100/images_d2/ww_snow48.72.0000.gifYou mean under do precip. It didn't show anything more than a trace here a couple weeks ago and I got 3.5 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 You mean under do precip. It didn't show anything more than a trace here a couple weeks ago and I got 3.5 inches.That is because it had the track completely wrong, but usually the precipitation totals in the center of the plume of moisture are forecast higher than what actually falls. It frequently forecasts very heavy rain in the lowlands of 2+ inches and most of the time totals are less than forecast. If this time it is underdoing the precipitation totals I will be extremely happy, but usually I expect about half to 2/3 of the snow that it forecasts. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 00z NAM and GFS show precip type being an issue for everyone south of Bellingham. Certainly a good bet that rain interferes with it once you get down to Everett, and south of Seattle should be almost all rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Better Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Of course on this, almost everybody in W. WA gets snow. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022100/images_d2/ww_snow72.84.0000.gif Edit: I guess it is so nice you get to see it twice. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 BetterDefinitely, it is a pattern that is shown to have snow in all areas but at completely different times. Total evolution possible for the region. North gets pounded.Central sound might get pounded, but will see snow for sure.Olympia south (including me) nothing to 3 inches. Fun weather event to track for sure. I say I do not see flakes(if at all) til sometime Sunday) overnight. However this system is ripe to overachieve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 New GFS and Canadian show significant snow north of Everett pretty much all weekend Late Sat through Sunday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50shadesofvan Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 And...just for kicks...GEM throws this stronger surface low approaching the coast for late Sunday night....tough to tell where R/S line is. Quote 50 Shades of Van: A weather blog dedicated to providing the public with easily accessible and downright interesting weather information for Vancouver, BC and the Pacific Northwest Latest Post: http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/10/23/chaos-in-the-pacific-storm-parade-route-unknown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Better Ya I was about to say the same thing. The WRF earlier was not as good for the central sound. This is an improvement over earlier runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50shadesofvan Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 *Picks Jaw off Floor* Quote 50 Shades of Van: A weather blog dedicated to providing the public with easily accessible and downright interesting weather information for Vancouver, BC and the Pacific Northwest Latest Post: http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/10/23/chaos-in-the-pacific-storm-parade-route-unknown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Fabulous GFS and WRF tonight. Even though it shows it taking a while to turn to snow between Seattle and Tacoma it still snows a decent amount. Precip could easily turn over faster for the East Puget Sound lowlands as the latest WRF shows winds remaining easterly for almost the entire event. An earlier turn over could bring several inches for everyone on this run. The all important 1300 contour on the 1000-850 thickness map goes south of Olympia at one point on the GFS during the period of significant precip. Very good news. Nice to see the Canadian coming on board. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 *Picks Jaw off Floor* http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014022100/west/cmc_snow_acc_west_17.png Your images are not showing up. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Your images are not showing up.Shows up fine for me. Scram! Get back to the pool and a Mai tai. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Your images are not showing up. same here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Your images are not showing up.Ditto. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Just think if this thing trends just a TENNY bit colder. That is all it would take for a widespread major snowfall. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50shadesofvan Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Sorry for those who couldn't see the latest GEM snowfall. This might work for everyone. 1 Quote 50 Shades of Van: A weather blog dedicated to providing the public with easily accessible and downright interesting weather information for Vancouver, BC and the Pacific Northwest Latest Post: http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/10/23/chaos-in-the-pacific-storm-parade-route-unknown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Sorry for those who couldn't see the latest GEM snowfall. This might work for everyone. Looks nice. Do you have a higher Rez? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 GEM brings a sub 1000 low for round 2 into the Olympics... I am guessing that's where we get buried. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Sorry for those who couldn't see the latest GEM snowfall. This might work for everyone. Yup, that works.... Wow!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Looks nice. Do you have a higher Rez? That's the best view they have from that model. Looks like the east Puget Sound lowlands do well. This is a case where the east wind will be our friend. It usually is if there is enough moisture to overcome the drying effect which the models agree there will be. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 That's the best view they have from that model. Looks like the east Puget Sound lowlands do well. This is a case where the east wind will be our friend. It usually is if there is enough moisture to overcome the drying effect which the models agree there will be. Ya it is hard to tell how heavy the precip is from that map. But it looks to be close to 6 inches in the E. Puget Sound. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 GEM brings a sub 1000 low for round 2 into the Olympics... I am guessing that's where we get buried. The WRF agrees. It brings the surface low inland on a latitude JUST south of Seattle. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 That's the best view they have from that model. Looks like the east Puget Sound lowlands do well. This is a case where the east wind will be our friend. It usually is if there is enough moisture to overcome the drying effect which the models agree there will be.I think the offshore flow through the Chehalis Gap is why the models continue to show some snow here, I hope this whole thing shifts more south. But, the north areas deserve a good dumping as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Operational GFS is still really dry here, not in sync with the WRF much at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Operational GFS is still really dry here, not in sync with the WRF much at all.This is looking like a wait until it starts evolving situation for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Epic bust potential! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Operational GFS is still really dry here, not in sync with the WRF much at all.It's hard to tell exactly with the low resolution, but it still looks like about 0.4" of QPF to me on the OP for Bellingham. Most of that falls Saturday afternoon and evening though so it's hard to say whether it would be accumulating snow the whole time. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 WRF drunk? http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022100/images_d2/or_snow24.120.0000.gif Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Epic bust potential!Epic bust potential either way, amazing possibilities with this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 WRF drunk? http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022100/images_d2/or_snow24.120.0000.gifRespect for Gorge outflow!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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