PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[ShawniganLake]

31.5F. Frosty  

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Really nice sunset last night. Disappointed the Aurora didn’t work out but still having a great time. Didn’t even know it would be a possibility until I was up here so no biggie. 

That's a nice lake. Where is it?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

That's a nice lake. Where is it?

Its the Puget Sound... he is up in the San Juan islands.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another clear mild night here. Raining in Eugene. 

[Phil]

14 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Gorgeous afternoon for the downtown North Bend trick-or-treating event.   Restaurants had outdoor seating and there was live music.  Pretty festive and the weather was spectacular.   Second pic is looking down North Bend Way just west of downtown where we parked the car.

Blue filter now?

[Timmy Supercell]

Happy Halloween!

[Phil]

13 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

2005 ain't happening IMO.  Just a poor match in a number of ways.

Well, 2005/06 is also Niña/-QBO.

But I don’t like it as an analog. Significant differences in the tropics in spite of ENSO.

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Happy Halloween!

Happy Halloween. Are you eating Tornados?

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Blue filter now?

Yes... it makes a gloomy, dark, cloudy day like yesterday appear to be bright and sunny.   

[Phil]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The forecasters are starting back peddle on the aurora now.  Now the forecast is G1 to G3.  Kind of reminds me of a blown snowstorm forecast.

Good. Last thing we need is O^3 destroying charged particle showers in a Niña w/ descending easterly shear.

I’d be happy if there were no aurora’s ever again.

[Timmy Supercell]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Blue filter now?

I don't see anythng that looks altered. One of my point and shoots sometimes overdoes saturation and looks like that off the sd card.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Good. Last thing we need is O^3 destroying charged particle showers in a Niña w/ descending easterly shear.

I’d be happy if there were no aurora’s ever again.

But the auroras are pretty!

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Happy Halloween. Are you eating Tornados?

I wish. Been trying to figure out who sells these.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I don't see anythng that looks altered. One of my point and shoots sometimes overdoes saturation and looks like that off the sd card.

I was just messing around. Tim knows it wasn’t meant literally.

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... it makes a gloomy, dark, cloudy day like yesterday appear to be bright and sunny.   

The visibility was about as good as you ever see yesterday. The snow capped coast mountains on the mainland looked so close. 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

But the auroras are pretty!

I think snow is prettier.

Last time we saw an aurora here was in 2011. It was red. And cool looking. But I would’ve traded that for a nice blizzard.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The visibility was about as good as you ever see yesterday. The snow capped coast mountains on the mainland looked so close. 

Yeah... some of the best visibility comes during offshore events in the fall.    There is almost no moisture in the air like there is even on sunny days in the summer and the air has been cleaned by frequent storms.

[Phil]

I assume most of you guys have had your first freeze already?

I’m still waiting for a low below 40°.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

I assume most of you guys have had your first freeze already?

I’m still waiting for a low below 40°.

Not here yet... yesterday was the coldest morning at 33 and there was ice on my car in the driveway but the roses and dahlias were untouched and are still blooming.   

45 here this morning with a light SE wind... probably heading for 60 today.

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not here yet... yesterday was the coldest morning at 33 and there was ice on my car in the driveway but the roses and dahlias were untouched and are still blooming.   

45 here this morning with a light SE wind... probably heading for 60 today.

Close but no cigar!

I potency of seasonal lag/thermal inertia never ceases to amaze me. Early May is analogous to mid-August in terms of insolation. We can get hard freezes in May, but can’t pull it off again until November most years.  Really kills the mood.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Temp 32˚F, DP 28˚F. A freeze without a frost to pair with Friday’s frost without a freeze.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

I assume most of you guys have had your first freeze already?

I’m still waiting for a low below 40°.

Yes, see my other recent post. This is my third and probably last autumn in my current neighborhood, and every one has had an October freeze.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We had a low of 33 a couple weeks ago. Yet another mild fall, historically we should have our first freeze at the end of September. 
 

Everything is going dormant though and many of the trees have now lost most of their leaves. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had a low of 33 a couple weeks ago. Yet another mild fall, historically we should have our first freeze at the end of September. 
 

Everything is going dormant though and many of the trees have now lost most of their leaves. 

I've already had some teens here but these last 60 days averaged normal. lol

[Phil]

Dr. Roundy’s tropical forcing analogs looking increasingly bullish on December.

Pattern getting ready to retrograde and amplify by the 8th, verbatim.

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Close but no cigar!

I potency of seasonal lag/thermal inertia never ceases to amaze me. Early May is analogous to mid-August in terms of insolation. We can get hard freezes in May, but can’t pull it off again until November most years.  Really kills the mood.

It's the seasonal lag, which is made even laggier by being near a large body of water.

[TacomaWaWx]

32 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The visibility was about as good as you ever see yesterday. The snow capped coast mountains on the mainland looked so close. 

I’ve been up to the San Juan’s roughly 10 times in the past few years and yesterday was the most severe clear day I’ve seen up here yet. Typically I go in late October or late winter/early spring so haven’t gotten the opportunity to see it with such clear conditions until this weekend. 

[Timmy Supercell]

29 minutes ago, Phil said:

I assume most of you guys have had your first freeze already?

I’m still waiting for a low below 40°.

I hit my first 32F on 9/3 this year. There was a frost in August as well.

It hasn't been warm but not cold either.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like it got down to 40 degrees back at home. Coldest low so far this fall has been 35 degrees and we’ve only had 2 lows in the 30s so far. 

[snow_wizard]

I managed to drop to 36 last night in spite of being 52 after midnight.  Last night was one of the strangest east wind nights I've ever seen.  Places that were in the 30s early in the night ended up in the low 50s by sunrise while it was the exact opposite here.  Really goes to show how critical the gradient angle is with these things.

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Looks like it got down to 40 degrees back at home. Coldest low so far this fall has been 35 degrees and we’ve only had 2 lows in the 30s so far. 

That's not because we haven't had cold air masses though.  Plain bad luck for your area.

[Timmy Supercell]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's not because we haven't had cold air masses though.  Plain bad luck for your area.

A little further north on 97 I remember one morning someone hit single digits this month.

There's been cold present, just not Fall 2019 cold though.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I managed to drop to 36 last night in spite of being 52 after midnight.  Last night was one of the strangest east wind nights I've ever seen.  Places that were in the 30s early in the night ended up in the low 50s by sunrise while it was the exact opposite here.  Really goes to show how critical the gradient angle is with these things.

That happens all the time during our east wind events in the fall and winter... its not unusual.

[snow_wizard]

41 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

It's the seasonal lag, which is made even laggier by being near a large body of water.

The East Coast takes forever to get cold in the fall compared to the NW though.  We get quite a crash in normal temps in the Sept through Nov period compared to them.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

A little further north on 97 I remember one morning someone hit single digits this month.

There's been cold present, just not Fall 2019 cold though.

The one cold snap earlier in the month was pretty legit, but 2019 did have two good ones.

[snow_wizard]

45 minutes ago, Phil said:

Dr. Roundy’s tropical forcing analogs looking increasingly bullish on December.

Pattern getting ready to retrograde and amplify by the 8th, verbatim.

If that verifies we would get nailed.  You can tell that setup is about to full blown cold for the NW.

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The one cold snap earlier in the month was pretty legit, but 2019 did have two good ones.

2019 was the coolest October I experienced since coming here. 

And the Sep/Oct couplet was the coolest first 60 days of Fall in some considerable number of years too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene will end October above average. SLE right about average. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Well, 2005/06 is also Niña/-QBO.

But I don’t like it as an analog. Significant differences in the tropics in spite of ENSO.

Yeah...the observed weather has been a poor fit for 2005 as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

2019 was the coolest October I experienced since coming here. 

And the Sep/Oct couplet was the coolest first 60 days of Fall in some considerable number of years too.

October 2019 was legit cold.