PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Gorgeous afternoon for the downtown North Bend trick-or-treating event.   Restaurants had outdoor seating and there was live music.  Pretty festive and the weather was spectacular.   Second pic is looking down North Bend Way just west of downtown where we parked the car.

Beautiful the way the color on the trees contrasts with the blue sky.  So glad we got some sunny crisp weather before the color is done.

[Kolk1604]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Gorgeous afternoon for the downtown North Bend trick-or-treating event.   Restaurants had outdoor seating and there was live music.  Pretty festive and the weather was spectacular.   Second pic is looking down North Bend Way just west of downtown where we parked the car.

Perfect spot for a Dante's Peak 2!  

[snow_wizard]

Also regarding 2007...it hasn't shown up in the CPC analogs for several days whereas 1970 has been there every day for weeks now.

Just saying the chances are good this winter will be different than 2007/08, but there will probably be some similarity at times.  Phil has been giving us mixed signals on this.

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Also regarding 2007...it hasn't shown up in the CPC analogs for several days whereas 1970 has been there every day for weeks now.

Just saying the chances are good this winter will be different than 2007/08, but there will probably be some similarity at times.  Phil has been giving us mixed signals on this.

My favorite analog, 2005, is showing up.

[crf450ish]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Not shocking given the blocking that's been extending up into AK in October in recent years.  This stuff is all cyclical.

But then why do those blocks seem to disappear right around the time the timing for snow for us is right? 

[Timmy Supercell]

Thunder observed over a span of 10 hours in Medford! This is like an August t'storm event for them, except it's Oct 30!

[RentonHill]

12 minutes ago, snow drift said:

My favorite analog, 2005, is showing up.

Are the years listed in order from most to least? Or are they all about the same

[Rubus Leucodermis]

38 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The CME still hasn't arrived.  They are saying the delay could mean it won't be as strong as once thought.  We shall see.

This chance for an aurora has been getting a lot of play in the media. It seems that every time this happens the aurora is a no-show. The best displays seem to be the ones that catch most by surprise. It’s almost as if media hype frightens it away or something.

[Cloud]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Gorgeous afternoon for the downtown North Bend trick-or-treating event.   Restaurants had outdoor seating and there was live music.  Pretty festive and the weather was spectacular.   Second pic is looking down North Bend Way just west of downtown where we parked the car.

Perfect day! The kids are lucky this year. Halloween on a Sunday and no storms in sight. 

[Gradient Keeper]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Gorgeous afternoon for the downtown North Bend trick-or-treating event.   Restaurants had outdoor seating and there was live music.  Pretty festive and the weather was spectacular.   Second pic is looking down North Bend Way just west of downtown where we parked the car.

Beautiful colors. Nice fall day. People out and about. But I had to downvote(my first downvote ever) due to the mask nazis everyone obeying and complying dictator Inslee like good little soldiers, especially making kids wear them when they are not at risk of this virus. It is nonsense BUT yeah Happy Halloween!

00z GFS in 2 hours 56 minutes

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

This chance for an aurora has been getting a lot of play in the media. It seems that every time this happens the aurora is a no-show. The best displays seem to be the ones that catch most by surprise. It’s almost as if media hype frightens it away or something.

The last one really hyped them up with people sharing their long exposure pictures. We may get a better look at this time but I still don’t think it’ll greatly be visible with the naked eye. Might be able to see it though as this one is stronger than the last.

From Finland. Pretty sure this isn’t currently live but was recorded shortly before midnight.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks like we'll have to go up north or to Finland, Norway, Sweden to see the show tonight. Bummer.

00z ECMWF in 4 hours 50 minutes

[T-Town]

Great sunset tonight. 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

9 minutes ago, iFred said:

Aurora conditions are progressing and in-line with the earlier forecasts. Just looking like a midnight peak.

 

It's all so fascinating, and in my very amateur opinion it seems there is so much unknown about this science.

[Anti Marine Layer]

44 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The last one really hyped them up with people sharing their long exposure pictures. We may get a better look at this time but I still don’t think it’ll greatly be visible with the naked eye. Might be able to see it though as this one is stronger than the last.

From Finland. Pretty sure this isn’t currently live but was recorded shortly before midnight.

 

 

One good thing that makes up for the long winter nights there.

[TT-SEA]

48 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Beautiful colors. Nice fall day. People out and about. But I had to downvote(my first downvote ever) due to the mask nazis everyone obeying and complying dictator Inslee like good little soldiers, especially making kids wear them when they are not at risk of this virus. It is nonsense BUT yeah Happy Halloween!

00z GFS in 2 hours 56 minutes

Not sure there is any mandate when outside unless your are in a stadium or some other large venue.   I don't really pay  much attention and was not wearing a mask.   As long as everything is open with no reduced capacity then I have no complaints.   I am guessing the people wearing masks just felt like wearing a mask.    I noticed Dusty Baker wearing a mask as the coach of the Astros in Texas of all places.   That is obviously his personal choice and I have no problem with that.   I have noticed that very few people have been wearing masks at Seahawks games where it is supposedly required.   And I also noticed that very few people were wearing masks at Kraken home games and that is indoors.   I don't think much is being enforced right now. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like this area may dodge the east wind bullet tonight.  The models show the wind potential diminishing through most of the night and still nothing here.  If so it's going to cold.

There is actually a pretty impressive inversion in place for so early in the season as evidenced by a weather station at 1100 feet just SE of Bellevue showing a current temp of 43.

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

One good thing that makes up for the long winter nights there.

Looks like no shortages of snow cover up there either. The current shot is pretty much what I imagine... a snow covered house with dancing auroras. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, snow drift said:

My favorite analog, 2005, is showing up.

2005 ain't happening IMO.  Just a poor match in a number of ways.

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Breezy east wind starting to develop here. Topped out at 57.

I figured you would probably get it.  This went about as far as it possibly can while still managing to avoid it here.

[snow_wizard]

The KP is up to 4 now.  We need more to see the aurora here.

[snow_wizard]

Currently 42 in North Bend and 40 at the I-90 / 18 junction.  Pretty darn cold for so early in the night.

Places near the east wind areas that manage to stay calm could get quite chilly tonight.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

Yeah, has to be at least a 9 for a hint of color. Time to get the forks out again. 

I didn't say it won't go higher, in fact it probably will.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Currently 42 in North Bend and 40 at the I-90 / 18 junction.  Pretty darn cold for so early in the night.

Places near the east wind areas that manage to stay calm could get quite chilly tonight.

Not much wind here... angle must be wrong.   Sort of a bummer.   I honestly love those breezy warm fall nights.  

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Not much wind here... angle must be wrong.   Sort of a bummer.   I honestly love those breezy warm fall nights.  

It's almost an art in itself trying to figure out what gradients and what angles result in wind at any given location.  I figured it was literally a coin toss for here.  Looks like Enumclaw is the winner this time for wind.

[Cloud]

Pretty amazing that SEA's north winds shows no sign of slowing down while it's dead calm here. 

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Are the years listed in order from most to least? Or are they all about the same

I think they're listed in order by how well they match the given pattern.

[snow drift]

27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

2005 ain't happening IMO.  Just a poor match in a number of ways.

I'm just messing with you.

[T-Town]

47 here with a gusty north wind. 

[GHweatherChris]

12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

East wind is whistling outside the house and when I went to pick up our gyros for dinner there were leaf tornadoes flying around. Temp is sitting at 53 but it feels colder in the wind. 

Tornadoes without convection?  That's 2021 in a nutshell!! 

[Anti Marine Layer]

14 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Tornadoes without convection?  That's 2021 in a nutshell!! 

They call them dust devils.

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

They call them dust devils.

 

[Cloud]

If you stay up for the Saturday night shift, you could see the aurora, KP peaks from 2-5AM. 

 

Current forecast. There isn't anything showing right now. 

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast

[GHweatherChris]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

If you stay up for the Saturday night shift, you could see the aurora, KP peaks from 2-5AM. 

 

Current forecast. There isn't anything showing right now. 

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast

I would stay up and send my drone up to 350 feet to see if it picks it up, but it's illegal to do so at night without an FAA certification. 

 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

I would stay up and send my drone up to 350 feet to see if it picks it up, but it's illegal to do so at night without an FAA certification. 

 

Sounds like a terrific idea. If i have a drone, I would totally do it. What's the FAA rules for the morning hours? Maybe 5-8AM works? 

[The Blob]

Stuck at work so I can't go see the lights.

[TT-SEA]

Temp up to 47 now at the watershed station near here with a SE wind.     Maybe the wind is finally showing up.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Stuck at work so I can't go see the lights.

Be sure to take your full share of legally-required breaks outdoors.

[The Blob]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Be sure to take your full share of legally-required breaks outdoors.

I will ;D

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, snow drift said:

I'm just messing with you.

That was the season it rained more than snowed?