PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[snow_wizard]

1970 is an analog yet again.  I literally can't remember the last day that year didn't show up.

We'll see if anything resembling the rare double bottom November cold snap that year happens next month.

[GHweatherChris]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The forecasters are starting back peddle on the aurora now.  Now the forecast is G1 to G3.  Kind of reminds me of a blown snowstorm forecast.

Not even close to the same comparison.

[Anti Marine Layer]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The forecasters are starting back peddle on the aurora now.  Now the forecast is G1 to G3.  Kind of reminds me of a blown snowstorm forecast.

Tragic. 

[Geos]

Still not noticing any wind. Temperature fall slowed down. 36-38° across most of the Bothell area. 

Been keeping an eye on the north sky. Not seeing anything yet.

[Gradient Keeper]

This really fizzled. Dang. It sort of reminds me of when arctic air/boundary hangs up around Olympia and in Portland metro we get 33-36 F rain. Lol

[Deweydog]

Low solar strikes again.

[Geos]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The forecasters are starting back peddle on the aurora now.  Now the forecast is G1 to G3.  Kind of reminds me of a blown snowstorm forecast.

Boo! We finally get a clear night and everything... 

[Anti Marine Layer]

12 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Not even close to the same comparison.

Left in the dry vs left in the dark

[Cloud]

33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The forecasters are starting back peddle on the aurora now.  Now the forecast is G1 to G3.  Kind of reminds me of a blown snowstorm forecast.

Poor comparison. Disappointing no show for sure. By in large, this is a larger solar flare than the previous one. It still could happen by peak forecast hours but wouldn't count on it.

Space weather is vastly different, hard to compare this to a blown snow forecast Jim. 

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Poor comparison. Disappointing no show for sure. By in large, this is a larger solar flare than the previous one. It still could happen by peak forecast hours but wouldn't count on it.

Space weather is vastly different, hard to compare this to a blown snow forecast Jim. 

I'm actually going to have to lean towards Jim on this one considering the media has been going on and on about the coming solar storm and northern lights. Local news kept hyping it up constantly. I see the comparison in that regard, but from a science standpoint, well no.

[Cloud]

 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

 

Bummer. Thanks for the update though.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

I'm actually going to have to lean towards Jim on this one considering the media has been going on and on about the coming solar storm and northern lights. Local news kept hyping it up constantly. I see the comparison in that regard, but from a science standpoint, well no.

This is where I also say that if you have the resources at your disposal then you can make your own assessment, but the updates are also quite rare compared to earth forecast. The last time we had any sort of update was at 0030 UTC or 5:30PM local. The media once again, by in large hype this one  up because of the last aurora with numerous people sharing on social media. 

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I'm actually going to have to lean towards Jim on this one considering the media has been going on and on about the coming solar storm and northern lights. Local news kept hyping it up constantly. I see the comparison in that regard, but from a science standpoint, well no.

Exactly.  I was also referring to the back peddling.  First a foot, then a few inches, then maybe an inch, etc.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

This is where I also say that if you have the resources at your disposal then you can make your own assessment, but the updates are also quite rare compared to earth forecast. The last time we had any sort of update was at 0030 UTC or 5:30PM local. The media once again, by in large hype this one  up because of the last aurora with numerous people sharing on social media. 

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt

This was a bigger CME, but for some reason it just didn't land the punch it was supposed to.  Obviously space weather has a long way to go on the forecasting.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This is where I also say that if you have the resources at your disposal then you can make your own assessment, but the updates are also quite rare compared to earth forecast. The last time we had any sort of update was at 0030 UTC or 5:30PM local. The media once again, by in large hype this one  up because of the last aurora with numerous people sharing on social media. 

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt

You can actually get updates on the Kp every three hours.

[TT-SEA]

Eventually there is going to be a CME similar to the Carrington Event in 1859 and we are going to be royally screwed with no electricity or internet for possibly months.   

[Geos]

Good thing it's not windy. Lot of outdoor fire pits going tonight. Starting to see patchy frost on lawns now. 35° in Canyon Park. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Very windy here with some house shaking gusts. I am enjoying it. The EURO is EURO'ing tonight, or trying to.

[Cloud]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You can actually get updates on the Kp every three hours.

Regardless, you can see from the scale on the chart that was posted by me that this is nowhere near what's being forecast, in terms of activities. Even in the 0-3  hour range. Quite different and fascinating. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm....

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Hmmm....

[Deweydog]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Eventually there is going to be a CME similar to the Carrington Event in 1859 and we are going to be royally screwed with no electricity or internet for possibly months.   

Thanks to Facebook’s karma, I’d say it’s never been more likely.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

The ensembles represent 850mb temps(5000') The red line is 'climo' or the average temperature. The green line is the operational run forecast temperature. The white line is the ensemble mean temp or average of all 30 Ensemble members. All of the squiggly lines represent one of the 30 Ensemble members. You can see through Day 6 the ensemble members hold quite close to both the operational and ensemble mean. This signals good agreement. As we move beyond Day 6 you'll notice those members spread out further with more uncertainty long range. That's normal of course.

[RentonHill]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Thanks to Facebook’s karma, I’d say it’s never been more likely.

I’ll drink to that. One Second After was a good book 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

The ensembles represent 850mb temps(5000') The red line is 'climo' or the average temperature. The green line is the operational run forecast temperature. The white line is the ensemble mean temp or average of all 30 Ensemble members. All of the squiggly lines represent one of the 30 Ensemble members. You can see through Day 6 the ensemble members hold quite close to both the operational and ensemble mean. This signals good agreement. As we move beyond Day 6 you'll notice those members spread out further with more uncertainty long range. That's normal of course.

Oh ya sorry I know what the graph is I was just trying to guess a) why you were sayinghmmm and b) where we go from here

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF

[Gradient Keeper]

Good night all

Happy Halloween

[GHweatherChris]

44 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I'm actually going to have to lean towards Jim on this one considering the media has been going on and on about the coming solar storm and northern lights. Local news kept hyping it up constantly. I see the comparison in that regard, but from a science standpoint, well no.

I didn't notice any real hyping on our news up here, they stated repeatedly that there was a chance but no guarantee of seeing it.

It's like the odds of a visible aurora is a given just because there is a chance nowadays, I would say social media hype from non scientists (some on this forum) are a bigger factor.  Just like everything else in our society today, a chance or a thought is real, when in reality it's most likely not.

[The Blob]

[Deweydog]

Down to 54 at PDX.

[Geos]

Sitting at 38* on the island right now. Definitely a night where it is warmer on the hill tops then lower areas. 

[Cloud]

Unfortunately this northern lights forecast appears to be a bust.  We should be getting into the peak but as of 2 hours ago, NWS Spokane reported Kp sitting at 2 and ideally you want to be above 5. 

Another good indicator is looking at the Banff live webcam. Nothing to show for as of 2AM (screenshot). 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Fraser outflow keeping things a well-mixed 40˚F here. Looking increasingly like the aurora is a no-show.

[Cloud]

Until the next opportunity! It was fun tracking it. Learned quite a lot. 
In the mean time, down to 37. Chilly morning. 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 42F with the occasional shower.

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty darn chilly here where I’m at on the south end of orcas with 0 wind. Keep being disturbed by raccoons rustling around nearby. They seem to be responsible for the Aurora “rug pull” tonight lol. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Really nice sunset last night. Disappointed the Aurora didn’t work out but still having a great time. Didn’t even know it would be a possibility until I was up here so no biggie. 

[Tyler Mode]

Temperature bouncing between 51 and 36 so far this morning with the wind and no wind haha

I see Fairbanks set a record high of 48 yesterday at 1142 PM and is currently 47.

[The Blob]

The only lights I saw were the Gresham police blocking off a few blocks.