PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Overall the summer was warm thanks in large part to June.

Warm...

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Different east of the mountains, where nearly all of July was 90-100. 

And somehow August came out pretty much normal. 

I remember the heat was incessant over there.

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Overall the summer was warm thanks in large part to June.

Even without the June heatwave, summer was mostly warm overall for the people to the south. June just happened to pad the stats. 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Even without the June heatwave, summer was mostly warm overall for the people to the south. June just happened to pad the stats. 

People outside this forum are tough to talk to when it comes to averages and long stretches of heat. Last few times I told someone on Facebook summer 2021 was the hottest I get these "you mean those 3 days over 110?" replies all the time. KLMT didn't even break its all-time, lets ignore that heatwave darn it! The 67.3 Mean just goes right over their heads.

[Cloud]

picture perfect day out there. Should take this opportunity to do some yard work and clean up a bunch of fallen leaves. 

[snow drift]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Overall the summer was warm thanks in large part to June.

Spokane's hottest July and hottest summer

[snow_wizard]

The key to week two is going to be how strongly the Pacific High and Aleutian block are able to merge.  The models are really struggling with that question.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The key to week two is going to be how strongly the Pacific High and Aleutian block are able to merge.  The models are really struggling with that question.

Guessing it will be back to wet and mild then.

[Phil]

Wow.

 

[Phil]

 

[Cloud]

47 minutes ago, Phil said:

In the meantime, this looks like the strongest La Niña event in (at least) a decade. Haven’t seen an SSTA signature like this in the NPAC in awhile.

I guess the idea of an early 2020s multiyear Niña/-PDO cycle turned out to be a good call.  So much is revealed in the respiration of the Indo-Pacific warm pool.

 

Last 7 days change. This is quite a change compared to the last 7 (I had previously posted the anomaly difference last week). Last week, I mentioned that a significant cooling is occurring. This shows it, most of the pacific is still cooling.

we should hit -1.0C fairly soon.

[Anti Marine Layer]

44 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wow.

 

 

That's creepy.

[Timmy Supercell]

Now I don't have to sound like I'm exaggerating rainfall, almost 1/4" at KLMT! 

[Timmy Supercell]

Now over 2.3" for the month, just another .2" and this beats October 2016. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Hopefully Fairbanks can get a white Christmas, or we are really in trouble.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

 

This is getting exciting.  Looks like we may dodge the +EPO bullet going forward.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Wow.

 

 

Not shocking given the blocking that's been extending up into AK in October in recent years.  This stuff is all cyclical.

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

 

I could've sworn someone said mid November just yesterday....

[BLI snowman]

4 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Was Feb 2015 squall line event warm core? I remember Salem getting frequent lightning and that one came from the south.

Yeah I think so. Makes sense the 2nd half of February can do it in extreme cases since the sun angles are the same as now. 

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Last 7 days change. This is quite a change compared to the last 7 (I had previously posted the anomaly difference last week). Last week, I mentioned that a significant cooling is occurring. This shows it, most of the pacific is still cooling.

we should hit -1.0C fairly soon.

Just a hair above -1 °C

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  Enumclaw dropped to 27 last night, and now they're in the upper 50s due to east winds.  Pretty incredible they pulled off the 27 with the ground so sopping wet from the AR.

[Gradient Keeper]

6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That winter was very close to being very good in the pnw. Exactly what we need for snow pack. 

Yes it was. Incredibly snowy 1500'+

[Gradient Keeper]

East wind woke me up several times out here near west Gresham a bit stronger than even I expected. It will be weaker tomorrow before increasing again Monday. It's that time of year! PDX-DLS peaked at -8.3mb 9 AM which is stronger than we'd typically see in late October. 'Tis the Season!

Peak wind gusts

Crown Point: 71mph (8:01 AM, 8:05 AM)

Corbett: 54mph (9:36 AM, 9:45 AM, 10:03 AM)

 

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 37 minutes

 

[snow drift]

[SouthHillFrosty]

Didn’t see them posted but here is the 6z and 12z

[The Swamp]

Frost on the pumpkins and grass this morning.

Nippy.

 

55 and full on sun now.  Nice.

[Anti Marine Layer]

49 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yes it was. Incredibly snowy 1500'+

1500 feet of snow?

[TacomaWaWx]

Late October 2019,2020 and 2021. Maybe I’ll get lucky enough for some good weather in 2022. Not sure why the 2019 photo keeps uploading really blurry but still nice.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

18z GFS and ICON trending way drier.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  Enumclaw dropped to 27 last night, and now they're in the upper 50s due to east winds.  Pretty incredible they pulled off the 27 with the ground so sopping wet from the AR.

Home of Mr Hands

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

18z GFS and ICON trending way drier.

18z is a snooze fest 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Warm day. 60/39

Cloudy with some light rain now. 

[Omegaraptor]

9 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That winter was very close to being very good in the pnw. Exactly what we need for snow pack. 

It was very good. Just not where the majority of its residents live.

[Kolk1604]

2 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Didn’t see them posted but here is the 6z and 12z

Right forget the 18z. Throw that garbage out!

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

It was very good. Just not where the majority of its residents live.

I was living in Oklahoma at the time, but had I been up here... oh my...

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Warm day. 60/39

Cloudy with some light rain now. 

You're getting hit by the only activity around.

[snow_wizard]

The CME still hasn't arrived.  They are saying the delay could mean it won't be as strong as once thought.  We shall see.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

You're getting hit by the only activity around.

Slammed is more like it. Lol

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous afternoon for the downtown North Bend trick-or-treating event.   Restaurants had outdoor seating and there was live music.  Pretty festive and the weather was spectacular.   Second pic is looking down North Bend Way just west of downtown where we parked the car.

[snow_wizard]

10 hours ago, Phil said:

Striking large scale similarities to 2007/08, now becoming increasingly evident. Whether that continues remains to be seen, obviously, but it’s hard to ignore.

I disagree.  The continuous disruption of the PV doesn't match that year at all.  1970 is a much better fit IMO.  1970 had aspects of 2007/08, but a bit more amplified.  

As I've also mentioned the QBO was crazy minus that season and this year the -QBO still hadn't made it to the 50mb level as of late last month.  Possible it still hasn't made it.