PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

lol that last week of Nov 2019 was legitimately the coldest November spell since 2010, but that month still came out +2.2 on the Mean temperature.

11/26 - 31/16
11/27 - 31/8
11/28 - 30/6
11/29 - 30/3
11/30 - 33/0
Half foot of snow on the ground 11/27 with the bomb low/blizzard event. Folks on Black Friday in near zero temps waiting to get their discounted socks and movies. 

I remember that pattern. It was an odd one.

[AbbyJr]

23 hours ago, Phil said:

These aren’t SSW events. But there is wave activity keeping the SPV off balance. Should that continue into Nov/Dec, it would increase the chances for high latitude blocking all by itself.

Is this similar the the wave activity leading up to the December 2008 arctic blast?

[Timmy Supercell]

14 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

What about neutral Octobers though?

I have concluded before that most of the bone dry Octobers are not good winter signals.

2013 was one of a few exceptions to that rule.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The difference is that nothing has changed to influence OLM's departures. I prefer them because of that, not because of the anomalies. 

Fair enough... although I suspect you will not feel the need to mention OLM as often now that it likely will run warmer than SEA in terms of departures most every month.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I have concluded before that most of the bone dry Octobers are not good winter signals.

2013 was one of a few exceptions to that rule.

I generally agree. We do have to remember September 2013 was insanely wet. We had like 14” of rain that month, the previous record was around 8”.

[TacomaWaWx]

2 years ago today we had a 46/30 day in Tacoma. That was an impressively chilly day with clear skies. 

[snow_wizard]

26 in OLM this morning.  This mini cold snap performed well on low temps for many places.

[snow_wizard]

25 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

The warm November analog seems to be the only real winter indicator around here in the fall. All the September and October indicators don’t seem to really mean much either way. 

Some cold Novembers with a Nina work out well, but no doubt a torchy Nov in a Nina is a good thing in most cases.  In actuality some members have pointed out a wet October is probably a better indicator of a good winter coming than a cold October.  There seems to be some merit to that.  One thing for sure is seasons that AR heavy seem to really favor notable cold waves.  I think we're in great shape.

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

2 years ago today we had a 46/30 day in Tacoma. That was an impressively chilly day with clear skies. 

So many cold Halloweens in the past.  Not sure why this day is so good for that.

[snow_wizard]

27 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I have concluded before that most of the bone dry Octobers are not good winter signals.

2013 was one of a few exceptions to that rule.

I remember discovering that connection a good many years ago.  No doubt it holds some water.

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The difference is that nothing has changed to influence OLM's departures. I prefer them because of that, not because of the anomalies. 

For sure.  Landsburg is like that too.  It's been rural for the entire period of record and records go back over 100 years.  I have no idea why NOAA discontinued some of the long running rural station a few years back.  Big mistake IMO.

[MossMan]

Oh the memories! 
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2008/11/thanksgiving-and-upcoming-heat-wave.html?m=1

 

[snow_wizard]

I have yet to see Phil respond to my point that the -QBO has gotten hung up at around the 40mb level the last few to several months.  I think it's a big deal when trying to make the point how much like 2007 this supposedly is in spite of the fact the -QBO was raging by now at the 50mb level during that season.  I think it's a pretty big deal.

https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat

[Anti Marine Layer]

18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Oh the memories! 
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2008/11/thanksgiving-and-upcoming-heat-wave.html?m=1

 

Upper 50s and lower 60s is a heat wave?

[Anti Marine Layer]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So many cold Halloweens in the past.  Not sure why this day is so good for that.

To keep the trick-or-treating fun and nippy.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I have yet to see Phil respond to my point that the -QBO has gotten hung up at around the 40mb level the last few to several months.  I think it's a big deal when trying to make the point how much like 2007 this supposedly is in spite of the fact the -QBO was raging by now at the 50mb level during that season.  I think it's a pretty big deal.

https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat

At this time in 2007 it was all GLAAM, all the time.

[Geos]

Got down to 35* on the island. I think being surrounded by water and some air movement, kept the temp up a bit.

Basically at -1 now.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF ends on a good note.  A strengthening block over the GOA and a trough digging toward us.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I have concluded before that most of the bone dry Octobers are not good winter signals.

2013 was one of a few exceptions to that rule.

1978 says hi. 

[Phil]

57 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have yet to see Phil respond to my point that the -QBO has gotten hung up at around the 40mb level the last few to several months.  I think it's a big deal when trying to make the point how much like 2007 this supposedly is in spite of the fact the -QBO was raging by now at the 50mb level during that season.  I think it's a pretty big deal.

https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat

That is typical behavior.

There is a semi-annual oscillation in the QBO (reflected very well in the mesospheric u-wind).

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

At this time in 2007 is was all GLAAM, all the time.

I think it may have been too much of a good thing that season.  Very low GLAAM should have equated to a "slower" atmosphere that winter, but obviously it didn't happen that time.  Since then I've come to realize that index is more key to the tropics / ENSO than it is for the mid latitude wave train.

I'm not entirely sure how big a deal the QBO is, but a lot of professionals think it's pretty significant.  

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Fair enough... although I suspect you will not feel the need to mention OLM as often now that it likely will run warmer than SEA in terms of departures most every month.  

Nah. I haven't switched to SEA, I'll stick with OLM for historical comparisons. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Some cold Novembers with a Nina work out well, but no doubt a torchy Nov in a Nina is a good thing in most cases.  In actuality some members have pointed out a wet October is probably a better indicator of a good winter coming than a cold October.  There seems to be some merit to that.  One thing for sure is seasons that AR heavy seem to really favor notable cold waves.  I think we're in great shape.

There are have been many dry Niña Octobers followed by cold winters in the PNW. I compiled a list of them somewhere, will dig it up.

[Phil]

One thing Jim said that I agree with, is that if there are issues this winter, it probably won’t be from stagnant ridging, but rather from a screaming +EPO and mild westerly flow.

If we can avoid that, I think everything will turn out fine. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Oh the memories! 
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2008/11/thanksgiving-and-upcoming-heat-wave.html?m=1

 

I'll never forget that opening salvo in December 2008.  I was at a Christmas party that night and came home to fairly heavy snow falling.  Got about 3 inches of east wind driven snow.  The next day had a sub freezing high with strong east winds and blowing snow.

[MossMan]

Enjoying the lovely day! 
Up to 53! 
7.11” on the month. 

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF ends on a good note.  A strengthening block over the GOA and a trough digging toward us.

That high latitude action is retrograding at that point.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 60 now in North Bend... warmest Halloween since a high of 61 in 2015.     Wouldn't call it cold this year.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Oh the memories! 
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2008/11/thanksgiving-and-upcoming-heat-wave.html?m=1

 

There was a nice snowstorm here that night. 8-10”

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That high latitude action is retrograding at that point.

At the very end of the run you can see the high latitude piece and the Pacific Ridge are rejoining though.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I generally agree. We do have to remember September 2013 was insanely wet. We had like 14” of rain that month, the previous record was around 8”.

Yeah, in general a wet/active fall in general is a good sign.

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Enjoying the lovely day! 
Up to 53! 
7.11” on the month. 

Looks beautiful out there.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

There was a nice snowstorm here that night. 8-10”

That was one of those cold waves where there were so many snow chances everyone got a good one at some point.  Down here the stuff a few days later was the really big event.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, in general a wet/active fall in general is a good sign.

Very colorful with the purple thanks to the atmospheric river and bomb cyclone.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, in general a wet/active fall in general is a good sign.

We will end October above average in the rainfall department here and with over 14” Sept/Oct, well above average which would be around 9”.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I have yet to see Phil respond to my point that the -QBO has gotten hung up at around the 40mb level the last few to several months.  I think it's a big deal when trying to make the point how much like 2007 this supposedly is in spite of the fact the -QBO was raging by now at the 50mb level during that season.  I think it's a pretty big deal.

https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat

Interesting. Do we have other examples of this happening?

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

So many cold Halloweens in the past.  Not sure why this day is so good for that.

Is today supposed to be cold for anyone?

If it was going to be 40, not 60 I'd be impressed.

[TT-SEA]

If it can get to 62 in North Bend... this will be the warmest Halloween since 2009 when it was 64.

[Deweydog]

4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

At the very end of the run you can see the high latitude piece and the Pacific Ridge are rejoining though.

 

Embrace the warmth.  You’ll appreciate it in 6-8 weeks.

[ShawniganLake]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That was one of those cold waves where there were so many snow chances everyone got a good one at some point.  Down here the stuff a few days later was the really big event.

The 20-21st was the big 1 here. But there were 4 or 5 decent rounds of snow that month. 54” in total.