MossMan Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 21 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: I'm surprised all the Oregon and SW Washington people aren't on right now talking about the GFS. Phil soured everyone’s mood last night with his 1999 talk. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 9 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said: Mossman is sure handing out a lot of weenies this evening. Probably overbought at Costco and just needs to use before they go bad 49* and I think it’s going to rain…..again 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: It's trying again... Like the Seahawks and Huskies have been doing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 8 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Lock it in! Advice, play hard to get Tiger to keep her attention Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: Advice, play hard to get Tiger to keep her attention That's a cute euphemism for foreplay 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Morning nerds 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 38 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: This is obviously accurate and we should all thank the lord for our blessings. 2 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Obligatory 384hr map... The 12z GFS delivers an Arctic Blast to the PNW in the long range. Great run. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 10 hours ago, Phil said: What can I say..I haven’t liked any of the pattern developments over the last 7-10 days. And I’m looking hard, from the tropics to the pole(s). Hope I’m wrong but I think the chances of a 1974/75, 2007/08, 1999/00 type winter are increasing exponentially. I agree. We are supposed to be +15F for the next 10 days. They can't even make snow up here for the next week or 2. Even if we get cold air after that it will tough to open any terrain by Christmas. Even the worst drought years we had some runs open by Christmas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Impressive amount of cold air getting involved with this run. I like the angle of attack, should pick up lots of moisture. 3 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 10 hours ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals I'd be a bit surprised but I'd love this map of we were 48 or 72 hours out. I'm in the purple. Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Looking at current weather... the IR satellite shows yet another AR event taking aim at SW BC and western WA. It feels like this has been a semi-permanent feature for the last couple months. I am looking forward to anything different. 4 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Looking at current weather... the IR satellite shows yet another AR event taking aim at SW BC and western WA. It feels like this has been a semi-permanent feature for the last couple months. I am looking forward to anything different. It's getting ridiculous. 15 inches of rain here this month. 1 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 51 and sunny with patchy clouds or fog over the hills. Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 The 12z Gfs is really just model noise at this point. It’s possible we see something decent the first half of December, but more likely we won’t. 90% of operational runs and ensembles show nothing. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: The 12z Gfs is really just model noise at this point. It’s possible we see something decent the first half of December, but more likely we won’t. 90% of operational runs and ensembles show nothing. Real fun is being kept for 2nd half of the month Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 47 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Impressive amount of cold air getting involved with this run. I like the angle of attack, should pick up lots of moisture. That is one bloody impressive run. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z GFS tried... That's only a try? Full on cold, but obviously the next one is the money shot. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 50 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: I agree. We are supposed to be +15F for the next 10 days. They can't even make snow up here for the next week or 2. Even if we get cold air after that it will tough to open any terrain by Christmas. Even the worst drought years we had some runs open by Christmas They do get snow in June sometimes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 ECMWF shows the rain just never takes a break over at least the next 5 days... western WA is always in the direct line of fire. It just goes on and on. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: The 12z Gfs is really just model noise at this point. It’s possible we see something decent the first half of December, but more likely we won’t. 90% of operational runs and ensembles show nothing. Last nights ECMWF was cold in the almost believable range. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: ECMWF shows the rain just never takes a break over at least the next 4 days... western WA is always in the direct line of fire. It just goes on and on. Muddy dogs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Last nights ECMWF was cold in the almost believable range. I haven’t closed the door on something decent, but some consistency would be nice. We ll see where this run goes. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: ECMWF shows the rain just never takes a break over at least the next 4 days... western WA is always in the direct line of fire. It just goes on and on. It remains significantly wetter than the GFS for the Puget Sound. It will be pretty stunning if I end up picking another 4" before the end of the month like it suggests. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 What's everyone waiting for? Seattle and Portland are world famous for rain. It's Minneapolis that's famous for snowstorms and cold 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Still seems kind of subdued on here today. It's obvious the pieces are going to be there for cold weather coming up. There's a good chance it's going to work out. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 12Z ECMWF shows SEA getting another 4 inches of rain before the month ends. Going to be right up there with November 2006. The difference is that the end of that November was cold and snowy so we got a break... no such luck this month. 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said: What's everyone waiting for? Seattle and Portland are world famous for rain. It's Minneapolis that's famous for snowstorms and cold So? We do get some good stuff here sometimes. You seem to be really stirring the pot this year. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF shows SEA getting another 4 inches of rain before the month ends. Going to be right up there with November 2006. The difference is that the end of that November was cold and snowy so we got a break... no such luck this month. The cold might just be a week or two later. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: That's only a try? Full on cold, but obviously the next one is the money shot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: The cold might just be a week or two later. Maybe... but sometimes when we play with fire in terms of cold air we end up getting into an even wetter pattern. I am trying not to think about that but its hard. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: What's everyone waiting for? Seattle and Portland are world famous for rain. It's Minneapolis that's famous for snowstorms and cold It doesn't rain in Oregon anymore. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Looks like the ECMWF is going to get chilly again with the first attempt. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Maybe... but sometimes when we play with fire in terms of cold air we end up getting into an even wetter pattern. I am trying not to think about that but its hard. Historically speaking these excessively wet periods don't drag on for months. Something has to give. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: Looks like the ECMWF is going to get chilly again with the first attempt. I am craving cold 850mb temps. At the very least that shuts off the firehose. 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 I can't figure it out. Yesterday we had a bad run and everyone was bummed, and today we have a great run and everyone yawns. I guess I'm the only one that thinks we're in good shape. Makes it kind of a bummer to come on here. 1 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 It’s about consistency Jim. It’s all just noise at this point. Don’t force us to celebrate with you. I don’t even think it’s negative on here. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 850s are -8 on the ECMWF by Friday night. Cold enough for snow and well below normal temps. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I can't figure it out. Yesterday we had a bad run and everyone was bummed, and today we have a great run and everyone yawns. I guess I'm the only one that thinks we're in good shape. Makes it kind of a bummer to come on here. There has been too much model volatility for anyone to believe anything. But obviously if things come into focus soon then everyone will be on board. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: It’s about consistency Jim. It’s all just noise at this point. Don’t force us to celebrate with you. I don’t even think it’s negative on here. I'm just frustrated that people can't see this the way I do. I feel like I'm failing in explaining myself. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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