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12/14-12/16 Upper MW Powerhouse System


Tom
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Given things getting pulled back a bit and Omaha being more in the crosshairs, I plan on heading out to the Missouri Valley/Onawa area along I-29 so I can be still be close enough to storms as they head through the metro area and head back home if there is any damage, etc.

I plan on trying to stay with the storm until maybe shortly after dark also depending on storm speed, visibility, etc. After I leave those storms I might stay up in northwest Iowa to experience the secondary rush of extreme winds that were being forecast up to 85 mph last night.

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Met from KCRG was just on local radio. They never speak live with mets but this is how wild the potential is. He said this could be close to derecho and the tornado risk has increased. Straight line winds as well. And this will be after dark. "When you get home from work and school stay home"

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3 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Met from KCRG was just on local radio. They never speak live with mets but this is how wild the potential is. He said this could be close to derecho and the tornado risk has increased. Straight line winds as well. And this will be after dark. "When you get home from work and school stay home"

What was always lacking with this setup was CAPE. Heck the SPC didn't even have a marginal risk on it's first 3 day outlook.

But the CAPE keeps increasing and most models all show 1000+.

I'm getting more and more concerned with the Omaha area. The HRRR is slowing things down allowing storms to form and mature well west of here now and move into a very volatile environment. 

stp.us_c.png

hrrr_2021121516_006_41.29--95.96.png

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HRRR looks pretty ominous. Line of 85-90 mph gusts moving across SE Nebraska around 6 pm. Not sure how people have the ability to look at max wind gusts though because I can only get the conditions every hour on WxBell. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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..and I posted a couple weeks ago how we needed some really historic wx systems like the "11's Storm" of Nov 1911.

Well, here we are folks! Be safe out there.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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51 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

First that I've seen of true hurricane force gusts goes to Trindad,CO--- gusting 76mph.

image.thumb.png.c1249b4794d7f4147f77a616782397fa.png

This is exactly what I was worried about seeing when I saw that line on the high rez nam being modeled...can you imagine what the scene would look like in the mountains?   

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20 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Garden City - dust bowl.

KGCK 151745Z 25038G64KT 1/4SM BLDU VV011 16/03 A2944 RMK AO2 PK WND 24073/1733 PRESRR T01560028

Thinking we are seeing a Haboob with this advisory?!

Dust Storm Warning

DUST STORM WARNING
NWS GOODLAND KS
1152 AM CST WED DEC 15 2021

KSC039-065-137-NEC145-151945-
/O.NEW.KGLD.DS.W.0013.211215T1752Z-211215T1945Z/
1152 AM CST WED DEC 15 2021
Decatur County KS-Graham County KS-Norton County KS-Red Willow County
NE-

The National Weather Service in Goodland has issued a

* Dust Storm Warning for...
Norton County in northwestern Kansas...
Decatur County in northwestern Kansas...
Graham County in northwestern Kansas...
Red Willow County in southwestern Nebraska...

* Until 145 PM CST.

* At 1152 AM CST, a wall of dust was along a line extending from 6
miles north of Ludell to 7 miles northwest of Dresden to 5 miles
north of Quinter, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Less than a quarter mile visibility with damaging wind in
excess of 70 mph.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.
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2 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Wow… 72° in Des Moines..on Dec 15

up to 50F here as the winds begin to pick up a bit.  Visibility improving drastically. 

Windows are open. Free Heat. No wood burned. It does seem like an April day if the sun wasnt so low in the sky.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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SVR warning already up from Holdrege to north central KS. I'm not the biggest severe wx fan, but it's hard not to be interested with how crazy this event is, especially for December. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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* At 1152 AM CST, a wall of dust was along a line extending from 6
miles north of Ludell to 7 miles northwest of Dresden to 5 miles
north of Quinter, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Less than a quarter mile visibility with damaging wind in
excess of 70 mph.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.
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7 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Even if you didn't follow the weather at all, something about this sunrise that is a bad harbinger. 61F over 57F dew at 7am in mid Dec doesn't bode well either.

PXL_20211215_131533054~2.jpg

“Red sky at morning - sailor take warning.”

 
Always seems to be a harbinger to a bad day.  As a sailor, I found it pretty consistent.  
Be careful. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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OAX is using "DESTRUCTIVE" terminology on their severe thunderstorm warnings.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

74 in Omaha. Is that a record for December? 

Yup.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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93mph in Lincoln-

 

KLNK 152137Z 21032G81KT 1/2SM R36/2000VP6000FT +TSRA FG SQ SCT025 BKN070 OVC090 12/10 A2921 RMK AO2 PK WND 22081/2129 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB27 TSB21 P0015 T01170100

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Squall line didn't really seem that bad in SE Lincoln, certainly not 93 mph gusts, maybe like 70. Either way, didn't think I'd be seeing a torrential rain/wind storm in December. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Its long but if you have a couple mins check out Des Moines afternoon AFD. Crazy stuff.

Key Messages:

An unprecedented, historic event is just getting started across the
area today. There are several facets to this event including extreme
environmental winds, high end severe weather, and (of least
importance) record breaking heat.

Lee cyclogenesis has rapidly increased as the surface cyclone moves
out of Colorado and into Nebraska and Kansas this afternoon. Iowa
has remained within the warm sector today with temperature
soaring into the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area. This
shatters high temperature records for the day across most sites in
Iowa. Additionally, the all-time, statewide December record high
of 74 degrees in Thurman of 74 on Dec. 6, 1939 is broken
(preliminarily, this will need to be officially verified).
Dewpoints at 1pm were in the upper 50s and low 60s statewide.

Significant High Wind...

Warm air advection ongoing today has initially limited mixing
efficiency as was expected, as the lift from waa works in contrast
to deep mixing. Even still, winds by noon had started gusting 40-50+
mph across parts of southern into central Iowa. Convection has begun
across Kansas and Nebraska and is expected to swing across Iowa
between 22z and 02z. Thunderstorms will enhance background wind
gusts, but more on the convective component next. Hi-res models
continue to indicate a brief lull in gusts behind the line of
convection this evening, however this will only last an hour or so
before the synoptic winds ramp up with vigor. As the low pressure
center and associated dryline approaches the area the pressure
gradient will tighten significantly across the area. Strong cold air
advection and subsidence will pull the very strong winds just off
the surface down to the ground. It can be practically guaranteed
that everyone will see 60 mph gust this evening and many will see 70
mph. Strong decent on the back of the low resulting in a sting
jet setup mean that gusts of 80+ mph are possible in pockets
across the state. Gusty winds will begin to subside after
midnight. Widespread wind damage an power outages are a real
possibility.

Severe Thunderstorm Threat...

This is the first time that SPC has ever issued a Moderate risk for
severe storms in the state of Iowa in December, and even in the
typical convective season they are fairly uncommon). Thunderstorms
will enhance the background strong environmental winds as cold
pools drive gusts. Embedded gusts within severe thunderstorms will
easily exceed 80 mph and gusts over 100 mph are certainly
possible. Wind gusts are easily a concern with every storm that
develops. The other concern is the tornado threat. Parameters
within the CAMs include 0- 1km MLCAPE ~800 J/kg, 0-1km helicity
~300m2/s2, LCLs ~500m, Sig Tor Parameter ~1-2, and 0-1km lapse
rates 6-8 C/km, all contributing to a good tornadic environment.
As the previous discussion mentioned, storms will be moving very
fast (current storms in Kansas are moving at 70-80 mph) and
rotational winds within tornadic storms will be enhanced, easily
pushing strength to the significant tornado (EF2+) thresholds.
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1 hour ago, Bellona said:

Yeowza!!!

Screenshot_20211215-145532.png

Yep we through my area and multiple reports of spin ups. The main line had crazy rotation as it went over my area. My neighbors tree fell down on our power line and have been out of electricity since 3:00. Hard telling when they get back to fix it as my county has multiple lines down. 

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Never seen this many tornado warnings in one squall.

1639608895362.png

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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