October 2015 Observations and Discussions

[Geos]

High of 71° today. Quite windy all day, still is.

 

Tallied up the number of growing days this year and it came out to 171 days. Last year it was 177.

 

Need some rain!

Looks like the GFS is showing some lake enhanced rain totals or something near this area...

Would be nice.

 

[Tom]

An oscillating EPO is indicative of Pacific systems breaking through the ridge along the west coast.  Might be a part of the new LRC pattern and an active Split Flow as we roll on into November. 

 

Something looks odd to me with the CFSv2 map below...it has a deep Bearing Sea Trough and floods the U.S. with warmth Week 3 & 4???

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20151018.z500.gif

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20151018.NAsfcT.gif

 

Either the model is completely wrong on the Bearing Sea trough or the model's systemic error is in play here.  You be the judge.

 

Edit:  It's almost impossible to have so much warmth this time of year in Alaska/NW Canada and not have nature respond by unloading cold down into the lower 48.

[OKwx2k4]

Systemic error is the correct play here I believe. Only model I know of that can contradict itself between 500mb and 2m. Some of what I was hinting at earlier in the day. Either way, not buying much stock in anything until the typhoon solutions get outlined more clearly. However, classic cold look at 500 with a low signal over Baja is what I see there.

[OKwx2k4]

Euro pretty clearly indicate from now to mid-November that there should be a large area of -2.5C 850 mb temp anomalies anchored over the south-central and southeastern US. It is centered further west compared with similar anomalies which occurred in 2009-10. I can't post images without going to the full site. I wish I could. Need to get a computer soon.

[james1976]

Last 2 GFS runs are colder and stormier in mid-long range. Showing a nice cool shot early next week too. Any other model picking up on this or is GFS in a different world?

[Tom]

GFS starting to paint snow fall on occasional runs here and there for parts of the Plains or Lakes by months end...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015102006/gfs_asnow_us_41.png

 

00z Euro showing a huge "gulp" of Gulf moisture for the south/central Plains...doughnut hole over the Midwest/Lakes region...doh!

 

Models turning colder for the medium/longer range and may be digesting the -AO.  00z Euro by far the coldest Day 9 & 10 near the Midwest/Lakes with high temps in the 30's for parts of IA/MN/WI and nighttime lows in the low 20's.  Probably overdone.  Ensembles have been hinting at a colder regime to close out the month and operational models honing in on it.  CFS saw this weeks ago and some possible flakes of snow for some.

 

[FV-Mike]

Great information. Thanks Tom

[Tom]

Ahhh, I like it when a model (CFSv2) starts flipping according to plan...CFSv2 for November...pull back that ridge farther north & west baby!  Check out that moisture for the central CONUS...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201511.gif

 

 

Funnel down some more cold air and you have an interesting set up for November...lets see if the model continues the cooling trend for the west/central U.S....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201511.gif

[OKwx2k4]

It's getting there. Nice looking pattern coming up. All smiles right here.

[Tom]

Windy, but overcast day here in Chitown.  Doesn't feel as warm as yesterday without the sun.  Winds are coming out of the SW sustained between 10-15mph.  Balls should be flying out of Wrigley, possibly onto Shefield.  A chance of a spotty shower or two by game time is not out of the question.  Need those bats to wake up today and hope that Hendricks doesn't make too many mistakes.  Go Cub's Go!

 

@ Gabel23, game time tomorrow very warm with low 70's, still a little breezy but winds calm down during the game as front shifts through.  Should be decent weather to enjoy the game.

[jaster220]

GFS starting to paint snow fall on occasional runs here and there for parts of the Plains or Lakes by months end...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015102006/gfs_asnow_us_41.png

 

00z Euro showing a huge "gulp" of Gulf moisture for the south/central Plains...doughnut hole over the Midwest/Lakes region...doh!

 

Models turning colder for the medium/longer range and may be digesting the -AO.  00z Euro by far the coldest Day 9 & 10 near the Midwest/Lakes with high temps in the 30's for parts of IA/MN/WI and nighttime lows in the low 20's.  Probably overdone.  Ensembles have been hinting at a colder regime to close out the month and operational models honing in on it.  CFS saw this weeks ago and some possible flakes of snow for some.

 

 

Hey Tom!

 

I'm looking forward to following along on this forum with ya'll for another (hopefully) good winter.  I'm a little bit late in posting this, but some flakes were had last weekend in NMI courtesy of LES off of Lake Michigan. This is near the small village of South Boardman. A beautiful area about 12 miles inland from my former back yard near Traverse City. When I lived up there in the 90's it was one of my fave destinations to cruise my snowmobiles. I understand they had about 7" overnight Friday. That's pretty early for that much to accumulate, even for up there. They had the record warmest September in recorded history, so that's got the lake staying warm and will no doubt help with the LES as we head into the next 4-6 wks.

 

 

[Tom]

Hey Tom!

 

I'm looking forward to following along on this forum with ya'll for another (hopefully) good winter.  I'm a little bit late in posting this, but some flakes were had last weekend in NMI courtesy of LES off of Lake Michigan. This is near the small village of South Boardman. A beautiful area about 12 miles inland from my former back yard near Traverse City. When I lived up there in the 90's it was one of my fave destinations to cruise my snowmobiles. I understand they had about 7" overnight Friday. That's pretty early for that much to accumulate, even for up there. They had the record warmest September in recorded history, so that's got the lake staying warm and will no doubt help with the LES as we head into the next 4-6 wks.

 

20151017_SBan_Snow.PNG

Glad to see you back!  Not surprised to see how much LES fell in parts of the Lakes this past weekend.  Even Lake Erie/Ontario produced some heavy lake snows.  I agree, the warm Sept had a big impact and a relatively warm first part of October as well.  I think lake snows will be common in November.  I believe it was either Nov '94 or '96 that was very cold/snowy near the Lakes.  I took a ski trip during Thanksgiving break up in the U.P @ Indianhead Mtn and they already had 12"+ of snow on the ground.  Might see something similar this season.

[Maxim]

Last 2 GFS runs are colder and stormier in mid-long range. Showing a nice cool shot early next week too. Any other model picking up on this or is GFS in a different world?

seems pretty average and zzzzzz to me

[Maxim]

Euro is much more aggressive with the cold shot next week and definitely overdone. Kinda surprised it would do something like that.

[jaster220]

Glad to see you back!  Not surprised to see how much LES fell in parts of the Lakes this past weekend.  Even Lake Erie/Ontario produced some heavy lake snows.  I agree, the warm Sept had a big impact and a relatively warm first part of October as well.  I think lake snows will be common in November.  I believe it was either Nov '94 or '96 that was very cold/snowy near the Lakes.  I took a ski trip during Thanksgiving break up in the U.P @ Indianhead Mtn and they already had 12"+ of snow on the ground.  Might see something similar this season.

 

Thanks for the warm welcome back. It would NOT have been '94 as that was brown even up in NMI until about New Years. The "once in 50 yrs brown Christmas" hit the Northland and it was the only time I took the whole week off of work just to ride sleds and couldn't so I'll always remember that!

 

1989, '95, and to a lesser extent '96 had snowy autumns so you're prolly thinking of '95 or '96. I know '96 had some early snow then relaxed and got rainy around the holidays but '95 was non-stop with a fresh 6" of LES on Christmas morn to bring depth OTG to about 3 foot in mby. That kinda made up for '94's disappointments but of course I didn't have the week off 

[Tom]

12z Euro not backing down off the cold coming next week.  In fact, it's backing farther west as a nice blocking pattern shapes up.  The source region of the cold coming is straight from the arctic.  Looks like the first early taste of Winter may be heading towards the Plains and Lakes (those who didn't have LES).  Teleconnections for this run all support the possibility of this going all out into a strong early season arctic blast.  Skeptical at this point, but what the model may be digesting are the re-curving Typhoons that lead to the deepening of the Bearing Sea trough.  

 

There is a lead system that forms along a pretty strong cold front next Tues and spins up a powerful storm in the Lakes.  Wrap around snow showers are possible if all works out.  

 

Some of the coldest air in the northern hemisphere continues to brew up in the extended in North America as the Alaskan ridge builds and produces a pretty big Arctic HP in NW NAMER/Western Canada that has eyes for the lower 48.  I think the model is heading towards building that Aleutian Low...something the CFS has seen for a while now.

[Tom]

CPC eroding the warmth it saw just 2 days ago.  How quickly that changes...October could be a very volatile month, teleconnections playing ball...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

[james1976]

Nice to hear that about the Euro! I've been following that lead system on the GFS as well. Cold looks to come after it moves thru. Might be a great system to watch when the LRC comes back around. The cold shot looks pretty potent......straight outta the north. Nice to see GFS and Euro agreeing on this pattern. CFS as well. 

[Tom]

12z Euro Ensembles/Control are both seeing a stormy pattern through the extended...and a colder regime.  Blocking may get things rocking a bit early this year.

[Tom]

Thanks for the warm welcome back. It would NOT have been '94 as that was brown even up in NMI until about New Years. The "once in 50 yrs brown Christmas" hit the Northland and it was the only time I took the whole week off of work just to ride sleds and couldn't so I'll always remember that!

 

1989, '95, and to a lesser extent '96 had snowy autumns so you're prolly thinking of '95 or '96. I know '96 had some early snow then relaxed and got rainy around the holidays but '95 was non-stop with a fresh 6" of LES on Christmas morn to bring depth OTG to about 3 foot in mby. That kinda made up for '94's disappointments but of course I didn't have the week off 

It was probably '96...I think I was a Freshman in High School when I went with my brother and his friends.  Anyhow, if we do get a cold November, hope it holds on and doesn't pull-back as drastically as it did last year.

[james1976]

18z GFS sticking with a colder outlook for next week. Local met also has low 50s for highs early next week already.

[Hawkeye]

A surprise cluster of storms this evening gave us vivid lightning and dropped 0.59" of rain in my yard.  A bit of small hail fell in a few locations.

[Geos]

Have had some nice downpours today. Even some lightning to show for it.

Didn't see much sun at all today.

 

Took a picture of these spooky looking clouds late in the day.

 

 

[Maxim]

Euro is much more aggressive with the cold shot next week and definitely overdone. Kinda surprised it would do something like that.

yup, and now it's backing down on the cold.

[gosaints]

Ya i hope i can handle the 24 hours of seasonable cold

[Tom]

Now, now...the pattern is still evolving...watch, the 12z Euro comes back with the cold again.  What those 2 re-curving Typhoon's will do are critical to our weather pattern downstream.  I still see them winding up near the Aleutians/Bearing Sea which should pump the AK Ridge.  Climate models have been showing this for quite some time.

 

The warm waters that are developing in the NE PAC can start influencing what happens to storm systems as they enter that region.  Let's see how it evolves.

 

Meantime, Back to the Future...

 

[james1976]

12z GFS with a much larger cold shot late next week along with a system in the upper midwest that is trying to look more wound up. Something to watch. I think the model has been going back n forth with this feature for a few days now.

[Tom]

12z GFS seeing Plains Snow???  12z GGEM similar with a developing SLP near the Lakes next Tue/Wed...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015102112/gfs_asnow_us_41.png

[OKwx2k4]

12z GFS seeing Plains Snow??? 12z GGEM similar with a developing SLP near the Lakes next Tue/Wed...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015102112/gfs_asnow_us_41.png

What the...? Wow! That's new.

[Tom]

What the...? Wow! That's new.

Southern Rockies and the Ski Resorts are getting a kick start this season.  I know the mtn's of Arizona had some Snows yesterday and also in CO.  Once the trough builds in later during November, there will be some very good ski conditions out that way.

[CentralNebWeather]

We are excited around Central Nebraska for some nice rainfall that is predicted from late tonight into Friday AM.  Some forecasts are 1 inch or more.

 

Love seeing at least the threat of snowfall.  The winter season is coming, can't wait.

[gosaints]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015102112/gem_asnow_us_40.png

[Tom]

Pretty much the GFS/GGEM/EURO all show NW NAMER filling up with brutal cold in the 8-10 Day period.  Ultimately, the track of where these Typhoon's go will determine what nature will do with all this arctic air.  Will it stay up north or will the jet buckle and send it south???

[Tom]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015102112/gem_asnow_us_40.png

Get ready for some balmy 40 degree temps up your way next week...even the 00z Euro had a streak of 40's in your area, and that was a "warmer" solution.

[gosaints]

I can handle some below normal after the awesome fall we have had.  

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/mrcc/MonthTDeptMRCC.png

 

october has been nice... september even better!

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/mrcc/Sep15TDeptMRCC.png

[Tom]

Hurrican Olaf spinning in the Pacific is a good sign for the new developing LRC and its current track has it heading towards Cali.  Fast forward towards LRC Cycle 2-4, this may be the enhanced STJ that develops in Dec-Feb.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/19E_gefs_12z.png

 

Tropical Storm Patricia is also directly related to what should influence the STJ later on this season and we may see her influence in the southern Plains later next week.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP20/EP2015W5_NL.gif

 

 

 

 

Both the GFS/GGEM Ensembles have the re-curving Typhoon heading towards the Bearing Sea/Aleutian Islands...

[Tom]

I can handle some below normal after the awesome fall we have had.  

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/mrcc/MonthTDeptMRCC.png

 

october has been nice... september even better!

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/mrcc/Sep15TDeptMRCC.png

Can't complain about September...hands down a remarkable autumn month weather wise.  A bit to dry though.  October, as volatile as it can be, the colder weather coming should eat away at those positive anomalies east of the IA/NE border as we close out the month.

[Tom]

12z Euro back with a colder/stormier solution next week.  It's taking the Gulf energy and phasing it with the northern piece and creating a 994mb SLP in NE MO, then tracking thru N IL as a 990mb SLP. then as a 986mb near GRB, then into southern Ontario.  Hope this trend continues.

 

Edit:  From the Rockies to the Lakes, the Euro is showing widespread 1-2" qpf totals

[Maxim]

Can't complain about September...hands down a remarkable autumn month weather wise.  A bit to dry though.  October, as volatile as it can be, the colder weather coming should eat away at those positive anomalies east of the IA/NE border as we close out the month.

I'd say we still end up with +1.0 to +1.5 departures for the month. Going to take quite the cold shot to completely wipe out those positive anomalies. I'm talking specifically for Chicago though.

[Tom]

12z Euro continues with the Pacific storm train and another system develops in the Plains Day 9-10.  Keep it coming!