November 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

I was thinking of starting a Snowfall contest this year.  We had one a couple years ago, but it ended up being lost in the midst of a transition into our new Forum.  Last year we didn't even have one.  I'm thinking this season will be packed with storms so what are your guys thoughts on this???

 

Geo's, maybe we can use the same format you had created a couple years ago???  We could pick a few cities in the locals that are in the general vicinity of every member on this forum.  Example, we can pick a city or two in the Plains/southern Plains/Midwest/Lakes/OV???

 

Yeah that would be a good idea. 

Probably not a lot of places... maybe 15 cities with good data.

 

---

 

Radar lighting up to the west now. Starting to mist here with winds gusting over 30mph.

 

[Geos]

I need to find a place where I can live and see 80"+ a season consistently and be able to enjoy a little bit of city life!  I've always found it fascinating how crippling Lake Effect snow can be.  On this side of the lake, we were pretty fortunate to get some decent lake effect/enhancement episodes the past 2 seasons that upped the totals near Cook/Lake county.  

 

At least 80" consistently would be my ideal winter as well. Lake effect snow belts are great, but I would prefer a mountain climate. Don't need to be that close to a big city.

 

Wow, dewpoint up to 61° here!

 

I'll start a thread on a competition tonight with a list of cities.

[gabel23]

Jim Flowers has dropped a hint on his winter forecast. Said his analogue years are going to be 1992-93 and 2003-04.

I like 03-04, that was a back loaded winter though so we would have to wait......we got walloped that year starting after the new year. 

[Tom]

Euro Weeklies came in tonight and Thanksgiving week is looking stormy/cold from the West coast into the Plains.  Tonight's run was prob the coldest & snowiest run I've seen thus far.  It could be possible that many areas in the Plains may exceed their normal snowfall for the month.  The control run was down right snowy/cold for the 5 day period Thanksgiving week.  The cold spreads east towards the end of the month.  Might have a real good shot at a white Thanksgiving this year!  The trend in the weeklies are eye catching to say the least.

 

 

The 500mb pattern from Nov 22nd thru the 1st week of Dec screams coast to coast action.

[clintbeed1993]

Here is Jim Flower's Winter Forecast.

 

http://www.kmtv.com/weather/jim-flowers-delivers-official-winter-weather-forecast

[gabel23]

Euro Weeklies came in tonight and Thanksgiving week is looking stormy/cold from the West coast into the Plains. Tonight's run was prob the coldest & snowiest run I've seen thus far. It could be possible that many areas in the Plains may exceed their normal snowfall for the month. The control run was down right snowy/cold for the 5 day period Thanksgiving week. The cold spreads east towards the end of the month. Might have a real good shot at a white Thanksgiving this year! The trend in the weeklies are eye catching to say the least.

 

 

The 500mb pattern from Nov 22nd thru the 1st week of Dec screams coast to coast action.

That pattern is pretty much exactly what jim flowers is predicting. We would see a lot of west/east based bombs and cutters, a snow lovers dream. I find it interesting that flowers believes in long range forecasting using teleconnections; but pretty much mentions he doesn't believe in long range patterns repeating on his Facebook, aka LRC....

[Tom]

That pattern is pretty much exactly what jim flowers is predicting. We would see a lot of west/east based bombs and cutters, a snow lovers dream. I find it interesting that flowers believes in long range forecasting using teleconnections; but pretty much mentions he doesn't believe in long range patterns repeating on his Facebook, aka LRC....

It's almost contradicting bc he said he believes in a 30 day cycle which sorta correlates with the LRC.  I dont' get it.  Jim also says he believes in repeating MJO cycles, right?   The reality is, what we can take in from all these mets who all have their own opinion in forecasting the weather...the weather has cycles within cycles...it can get kinda confusing!

[OKwx2k4]

That pattern is pretty much exactly what jim flowers is predicting. We would see a lot of west/east based bombs and cutters, a snow lovers dream. I find it interesting that flowers believes in long range forecasting using teleconnections; but pretty much mentions he doesn't believe in long range patterns repeating on his Facebook, aka LRC....

Guy is definitely a mystery to me. Picked 2 of the worst winters I have ever had in my lifetime as analogs and gives very odd logic to back them up.

[gabel23]

Guy is definitely a mystery to me. Picked 2 of the worst winters I have ever had in my lifetime as analogs and gives very odd logic to back them up.

I think your gonna be slammed this year; the southern part of the states always does good with el Niños and you have been in the hot spot according to the LRC...at least by my observations! I'm excited to see what Gary lezak comes out with, I'm hoping it's something like Jim flowers forecast. I hate to be optimistic but I think we are all due for a hell of a ride this winter.......

[Geos]

Euro Weeklies came in tonight and Thanksgiving week is looking stormy/cold from the West coast into the Plains.  Tonight's run was prob the coldest & snowiest run I've seen thus far.  It could be possible that many areas in the Plains may exceed their normal snowfall for the month.  The control run was down right snowy/cold for the 5 day period Thanksgiving week.  The cold spreads east towards the end of the month.  Might have a real good shot at a white Thanksgiving this year!  The trend in the weeklies are eye catching to say the least.

 

 

The 500mb pattern from Nov 22nd thru the 1st week of Dec screams coast to coast action.

 

Snowfall map would suggest an active storm track out of the southwest and west. Should be an exciting back half of the month.

 

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Will finish the contest details tomorrow, but I came up with some cities.

I hope I have a city within a 100 miles of each of our members that frequent this sub forum.

 

Grand Island, NE

Omaha, NE

Wichita, KS

Kansas City, MO

Tulsa, OK

St. Louis, MO

Des Moines, IA

Davenport, IA

Minneapolis, MN

Wausau, WI

Milwaukee, WI

Chicago, IL

Indianapolis, IN

Grand Rapids, MI

Detroit, MI

 

Might add one or two more, if someone is not near one of these places.

[gabel23]

It's almost contradicting bc he said he believes in a 30 day cycle which sorta correlates with the LRC.  I dont' get it.  Jim also says he believes in repeating MJO cycles, right?   The reality is, what we can take in from all these mets who all have their own opinion in forecasting the weather...the weather has cycles within cycles...it can get kinda confusing!

Everything cycles, why the hell wouldn't the weather do the same thing right?! I just enjoy seeing forecasts put out by meteorologists who take the time and do it, aka your jim flowers, Gary lezak and the people on this website. I believe in them over the broadcast sites such as noaa and in accuweather....

[Tom]

I think your gonna be slammed this year; the southern part of the states always does good with el Niños and you have been in the hot spot according to the LRC...at least by my observations! I'm excited to see what Gary lezak comes out with, I'm hoping it's something like Jim flowers forecast. I hate to be optimistic but I think we are all due for a hell of a ride this winter.......

The Plains are going to come out of the gate fast this year.  The past couple Winters started off cold but didn't have the organized storm systems...more frontal/sheared systems.  I wouldn't be surprised if parts of NE/KS have snow on the ground Thanksgiving week.  The models are looking ripe for it.

[Tom]

Everything cycles, why the hell wouldn't the weather do the same thing right?! I just enjoy seeing forecasts put out by meteorologists who take the time and do it, aka your jim flowers, Gary lezak and the people on this website. I believe in them over the broadcast sites such as noaa and in accuweather....

I agree completely.  Long range forecasting have taken huge steps forward, especially with our home grown met's in the U.S.  Jerome Namias was another American born MIT Met, who, back in the 70's, recognized the importance of long range forecasting and wrote a paper on how the ocean temperatures influence the weather patterns around the globe..  I wonder what other new techniques arise in the future. 

[OKwx2k4]

I think your gonna be slammed this year; the southern part of the states always does good with el Niños and you have been in the hot spot according to the LRC...at least by my observations! I'm excited to see what Gary lezak comes out with, I'm hoping it's something like Jim flowers forecast. I hate to be optimistic but I think we are all due for a hell of a ride this winter.......

I definitely agree with you on the last statement. I was just pointing out the weird years he used to come to the conclusions he did. As far as the LRC is concerned, I'm crossing my fingers that it works out. It sort of worked out last year. That euro anomalies map looks like a DJF composite of 2009-10 only shifted west. That could repeat as many times as it wants.

[OKwx2k4]

Anyone curious as to my location since I'm sort of the oddball here, I'm 3 counties south of KS and right on the AR state line. That will give everyone better reference to my location. I'm 42 miles due west of Fayetteville, AR so I use them for my weather data although they only go back to 1950. I use Tulsa for NWS data pre 1950 or old hand written COOP data I have archived back to the 40s.

[OKwx2k4]

GFS providing another interesting take on the outcome of the fantasy portion at 06z. Brings storms through in much the same manner as before but appears to show them as "phasing" type storms. Considering I figure it will be more into the mature portion of the winter before we see the classic types of cutoffs, this is an option to consider for the early parts of the season as things ramp up.

[Tom]

00z Euro taking a track a tad farther south and still hits C NE/N KS with heavy snows.  Still continuing to show tons of precip with this system...2-4"qpf totals showing up in NE, 1-2.5"qpf totals in IA/IL/WI.  This storm is showing convection when it really wraps up and intensifies in SE NE @ 06z Thursday which would be at night.  Quite possible this storm can produce its own cold air pocket and surprise folks with more snowfall.

 

15.3% of the U.S. covered with snow...as expected, the Rockies getting a head start to their ski season and many ski resorts will be opening up a bit early this year.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201511/nsm_depth_2015110605_National.jpg

 

 

 

Here is a link to a live Webcam to the Aspen Highlands in Colorado...

 

http://aspen.roundshot.com/highlands/

[OKwx2k4]

00z Euro taking a track a tad farther south and still hits C NE/N KS with heavy snows. Still continuing to show tons of precip with this system...2-4"qpf totals showing up in NE, 1-2.5"qpf totals in IA/IL/WI. This storm is showing convection when it really wraps up and intensifies in SE NE @ 06z Thursday which would be at night. Quite possible this storm can produce its own cold air pocket and surprise folks with more snowfall.

 

15.3% of the U.S. covered with snow...as expected, the Rockies getting a head start to their ski season and many ski resorts will be opening up a bit early this year.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201511/nsm_depth_2015110605_National.jpg

 

 

 

Here is a link to a live Webcam to the Aspen Highlands in Colorado...

 

http://aspen.roundshot.com/highlands/

I hope y'all get hammered up there.

 

That is a beautiful camera right there.

[Tom]

GFS providing another interesting take on the outcome of the fantasy portion at 06z. Brings storms through in much the same manner as before but appears to show them as "phasing" type storms. Considering I figure it will be more into the mature portion of the winter before we see the classic types of cutoffs, this is an option to consider for the early parts of the season as things ramp up.

Both the op GFS/EURO have a -AO/NAO pattern setting up around the 16th/17th.  You can see the high latitude blocking pattern setting up on the GFS runs.  This is something we haven't seen in the past few Winters, esp Nov-Mar (Winter).  The pattern looks to get pretty wild as we close out this month.  Wonder if it goes all out Thanksgiving week.

 

Meantime, East Asian Theory working pretty well as the Siberian air mass is seeping eastward and will park itself near AK/NW Territories over the next 5-10 days.  The question was, will there be blocking that sets up when this air mass makes it into our continent???  It looks like nature may be trying to do so.

 

00z Euro Ensembles looking more and more impressive this far out with an arctic attack by the 20th, esp in the Plains...with storm systems nearby.

[OKwx2k4]

Both the op GFS/EURO have a -AO/NAO pattern setting up around the 16th/17th. You can see the high latitude blocking pattern setting up on the GFS runs. This is something we haven't seen in the past few Winters, esp Nov-Mar (Winter). The pattern looks to get pretty wild as we close out this month. Wonder if it goes all out Thanksgiving week.

 

Meantime, East Asian Theory working pretty well as the Siberian air mass is seeping eastward and will park itself near AK/NW Territories over the next 5-10 days. The question was, will there be blocking that sets up when this air mass makes it into our continent??? It looks like nature may be trying to do so.

 

00z Euro Ensembles looking more and more impressive this far out with an arctic attack by the 20th, esp in the Plains...with storm systems nearby.

Hmmm... sounds like all the models are almost in perfect agreement on the teleconnections. May be looking at a more Arklatex or Red River type low during Thanksgiving week. Bears watching to see if these storms in the later periods show a dramatic shift south at least.

 

I saw last night where ENSO forcing is forecast to retreat back to the dateline and stay put for all of DJF. That, coupled with a -AO/-NAO, neutral PNA and a weak SE ridge is almost like playing with a stacked deck here in the Ozarks. :-)

[gosaints]

The changes to the basin wide nino numbers in the last week are amazing to say the least.  Cant believe the rapid warming

[OKwx2k4]

The changes to the basin wide nino numbers in the last week are amazing to say the least. Cant believe the rapid warming

I just came back to say the same thing. Just wow. If you ever wanted to see a perfect wall-to-wall, almost dead centered basin wide nino, this one is it.

[OKwx2k4]

Anybody order a 1972, 77, 2009 blend for this winter? :-)

[gabel23]

Both the op GFS/EURO have a -AO/NAO pattern setting up around the 16th/17th.  You can see the high latitude blocking pattern setting up on the GFS runs.  This is something we haven't seen in the past few Winters, esp Nov-Mar (Winter).  The pattern looks to get pretty wild as we close out this month.  Wonder if it goes all out Thanksgiving week.

 

Meantime, East Asian Theory working pretty well as the Siberian air mass is seeping eastward and will park itself near AK/NW Territories over the next 5-10 days.  The question was, will there be blocking that sets up when this air mass makes it into our continent???  It looks like nature may be trying to do so.

 

00z Euro Ensembles looking more and more impressive this far out with an arctic attack by the 20th, esp in the Plains...with storm systems nearby.

Gary Lezak came out with a forecast this morning on his blog that goes up to thanksgiving. He says holiday travel will be affected by a storm system that starts off in the plains and will affect Chicago and Milwaukee. Sounds like he has a pretty solid handle on this years cycle! 

[Tom]

Gary Lezak came out with a forecast this morning on his blog that goes up to thanksgiving. He says holiday travel will be affected by a storm system that starts off in the plains and will affect Chicago and Milwaukee. Sounds like he has a pretty solid handle on this years cycle! 

Yup, listened to that earlier this morning.  Sounds like he has the first part of the LRC ironed out and believes this year's cycle will be around 48 or 49 days.  Did you see the EPO graphics he posted?  There is a little bit of last year's pattern incorporated with a new pattern this year.  That EPO index in October is almost completely opposite to last year.  Hence, the reason why we are seeing more storms targeting the west coast this year.  Anyway, let's see some snow!

[Tom]

Impressive 12z GFS run...all-out arctic attack pre-Thanksgiving week...if that even comes close to working out, those places that had impressive above normal temps to open November and set new record highs...could easily set record lows if this pattern evolves to its full potential.

 

12z GFS now flipping back to the storm next Thu/Fri...much farther south than the Euro and winds up to be a lakes cutter.

 

@ Gabel, Gary Lezak said that the EPO would turn negative around Thanksgiving week as the west coast ridge builds in and the 12z GFS run would be really close to what he was talking about regarding this year's LRC.

[westMJim]

I had a chance to take a look at Jim Flower's Winter Forecast. And I can see where that type of setup may happen this winter. And it that pattern indeed sets up there will be a chance for some "Texas hookers" this winter. Now one question is if this is the winter storm track with this systems go to the west of the Lakes or up into the lakes or hang around Lake Erie or to the east of there. In Jim's winter guess it looks like his thinking is the track will be to the west of the lakes and if that is the case most of the system snows will be to the west of me and there would be just wrap around lake effect. In looking at the years Jim's looked at her in Grand Rapids the winter of 03/04 had near average snow fall but more then half of that snow fell in January when Grand Rapids had 44.2"  the winter of 1992/93 GR only had 65.3" of snow.

[westMJim]

BTW the most snow fall for a season here in Grand Rapids was in 1951/52 when 132.0" fell. In the winter of 2013/14 116.0" fell. the records by month are October 8.4" 1967, November 31.0" 2014, December 59.2" 2000, January 46.8 1999, February 41.6" 2008. March 36.0" 1965. April 15.6" 1961, May 5.5" 1923 and June T last time 2005.  

[james1976]

I'm gone for a day and I come back to all this! My word, I love this time of year!

[james1976]

Crazy 12z GFS run! Way cold and stormy! Let's go!

[james1976]

Had one heck of a t-storm yesterday evening around suppertime. Full on heavy rain, wind, lightning and thunder!

[Tom]

12z Euro def took a jog south this run and bombs out from a 1000mb SLP near KC to just south of DMX as a 986mb SLP in just 12 hours.  Looks like NE is in the Defo band but a little warmer this run so barely any snow, if any.  Should be an interesting system to track early next week.  This storm takes a track very similar to what Jim Flower's graphic looked like.  I'd love to see many of these type of storm systems this season.

[Maxim]

12z Euro def took a jog south this run and bombs out from a 1000mb SLP near KC to just south of DMX as a 986mb SLP in just 12 hours.  Looks like NE is in the Defo band but a little warmer this run so barely any snow, if any.  Should be an interesting system to track early next week.  This storm takes a track very similar to what Jim Flower's graphic looked like.  I'd love to see many of these type of storm systems this season.

if the warm sector was just a little stronger, we'd have a pretty big severe weather threat.

[jaster220]

Impressive 12z GFS run...all-out arctic attack pre-Thanksgiving week...if that even comes close to working out, those places that had impressive above normal temps to open November and set new record highs...could easily set record lows if this pattern evolves to its full potential.

 

12z GFS now flipping back to the storm next Thu/Fri...much farther south than the Euro and winds up to be a lakes cutter.

 

@ Gabel, Gary Lezak said that the EPO would turn negative around Thanksgiving week as the west coast ridge builds in and the 12z GFS run would be really close to what he was talking about regarding this year's LRC.

 

Sounds almost "1950-ish" per our new poster's tid-bit yesterday about GRR's monthly records for Nov.

[Jaycee]

I have evolved from my shell. Wow this system next week. Oh boy, going to be a long season. Sorry school, looks like I'm burying my life in model watching again! Love the trends, it's been dry as bone out here for about a month. As soon as I head El Nino returning, I knew this year was going to be different. Cheers lads, let the games begin!

 

Also, given Chicago's 5-0 win streak over Nebraska in totals the past 5 years, if Gabel, CentralNeb, Clint, Jeremy and I win over you guys, Tom buys all of us shots and flies us all out to his place in Arizona for a week.

[Tom]

I have evolved from my shell. Wow this system next week. Oh boy, going to be a long season. Sorry school, looks like I'm burying my life in model watching again! Love the trends, it's been dry as bone out here for about a month. As soon as I head El Nino returning, I knew this year was going to be different. Cheers lads, let the games begin!

 

Also, given Chicago's 5-0 win streak over Nebraska in totals the past 5 years, if Gabel, CentralNeb, Clint, Jeremy and I win over you guys, Tom buys all of us shots and flies us all out to his place in Arizona for a week.

I hope you guys do well this season, I really do!  You folks deserve it.  We've been spoiled with back 2 back strong seasons and a powerful Blizzard in 2015 & 2011.  This season looks like it will be packed with strong storms.  I'm surprised as to how strong the system next week is on both the Euro/GFS, without any blocking!  I recall last year in December there was a strong storm that came out of the SW and occluded as it headed NE.  Then in Cycle 3 it was a full blown Blizzard.  I could see this storm being a powerhouse in both Cycle 2 & 3 this year.

 

Edit: BTW, Welcome back!  I was thinking about you the other day and wondering where you were.

[clintbeed1993]

We definitely need it this year.  It's been pretty rough out in the Plains for really the last 5 years.  It's even tougher hearing people just to our east talk about how great the last few winters have been.  Knowing we just barely missed out makes it that much worse.  Here's to better times ahead, the year of the bowling ball.  Make it happen!

[Money]

0z GFS showing 50-60 mph wind gust for the storm next week. Low gets down to about 975 mb in LSE and then heads up to GB or so

[Tom]

It's nice to see the models picking up on an intensifying system next week even though teleconnections don't necessarily support a strong storm.  So glad that we have juicy storms to track this Autumn which will ultimately compliment us into a wild Winter.  I have to say, the Plains/Lakes region has been the target zone thus far.  Pretty excited about this pattern.

 

Either the CFSv2 scores a coupe, or it is going to fail miserably Week 2-4.  It's own teleconnections do not support a torchy pattern following the 17th thru months end.  Very odd.

 

WPO looks to head negative between the 17th-20th which is another cold signal and supports storminess.  East Asian Theory supports the idea as well. 

[Geos]

This is one windy system next week. 850mb level winds.